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Govt admits fudging figures, lowers growth rate
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
By Khalid Mustafa
ISLAMABAD: The government on Monday revised the national growth rate downwards from 2.37 to 2.15 per cent, Adviser to the PM on Finance, Shaukat Tarin confirmed
to The News.
The economic managers acknowledged that the 2.37 per cent GDP growth estimates for current fiscal year worked out by the Federal Bureau of Statistics and
endorsed by National Accounts Committee, were flawed and fudged.
Tarin, confirming that the GDP growth estimates have been revised downwards at 2.15 per cent from 2.37 per cent, acknowledged that the FBS and NAC had not
included the negative growth registered in the large-scale manufacturing sector during July-March period.
“We have rectified the fault of FBS and now the GDP growth for current financial year has been projected at 2.15 per cent,” he said. “I asked the institution
concerned to ensure transparency in figures and show the growth figures as they are.”
However, Tarin said the other issues such as reducing the base by lowering the GDP growth of last fiscal from 5.78 per cent to 4.1 per cent and change in
methodology in measuring the growth in agriculture and construction sector will be explained later. He argued that all the steps taken by the FBS other
than excluding the large-scale manufacturing growth till March were justified.
However, when The News made contact with IMF’s resident chief Paul Ross for comment over the role of the FBS in estimating the GDP growth, he refused to
offer any comment. Finance Secretary Salman Siddique actually took note of the story “GDP growth figures are fudged’ published in the Sunday edition of
The News on Business pages and worked out two options on Sunday during a massive brainstorming session which continued till late in the night.
“The two options that were worked out were either to stick to the 2.37 per cent GDP growth and face criticism or to include the minus 7.7 per cent LSM growth
during July-March by replacing the minus 5.7 per cent of LSM growth in July-February period.”
When Adviser Tarin was briefed on the two options on Monday, he took the right decision while acknowledging the foul play by FBS and lowered the GDP growth
estimates to 2.15 per cent.
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