Evolving
Regional Security Dynamics
And
Impact on Pakistan’s Security
Asif Haroon Raja
Till as late as 1990, India remained a close knit strategic
partner of former USSR and it kept belittling the US imperialist policiesand
its provision of military assistance to Pakistan on all international forums.
It fully supported the Soviet military intervention and occupation of Afghanistan.Paradoxically,
today India is among the most trusted strategic partners of USA and the US together
with Israel have become India’s major suppliers of arms.
Since
2006, the US has been investing in a long-term strategic partnership with
India. In addition to civil nuclear deal to
India in 2008, and signing 10-year Defence Framework Agreement in June 2015, the
US Congress approved H.R. 4825, in March 2016, better known as the US-India
Defence Technology and Trade Partnership Act (DTTPA).
The
specific steps both sides have taken to improve defence cooperation include
expanding collaboration under the DTTPAby setting up five new
joint working groups. These include: naval systems; air systems, intelligence,
surveillance and reconnaissance; chemical and biological protection; and other
systems; increasingindigenous production in India; exploring new
opportunities to deepen cooperation in maritime security and maritime security
objectives in support of the India-US Joint Strategic Vision for the
Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region; military-to-military relations; expanding knowledge
partnership in the field of defense and regional and international
security matters of mutual interest.
In
August 2016, three military Indo-US agreements were inked: 1. Logistics
Exchange Memo of Agreement (LEMOA). 2. Communication Interoperability &
Security Memo of Agreement (CISMOA). 3. Basic Exchange & Cooperation Agreement
for Geospatial Information & Data (BECA).
The
LEMOA permits military forces of each country to resupply, replenish and stage
operations, using other’s military bases.It also empowers Indian Navy to expand
its presence in Indo-Pacific region. The CISMO allows integration of
communication networks, enabling the two sides to mount military operations
jointly. BECA allows exchange of sensitive information gathered by sensors and
satellites.
The US has not only opened all its military and
technology doors to India, and institutionalized the US-India
security partnership, but has
also encouraged Israel and other allies to do so as well. For the past eight
years, India has been the world’s largest arms importer, buying over $100
billion in weapons each year, two-thirds of which are deployed against
Pakistan. Moreover, US military and political support emboldens India in its confrontationalcomportment
towards Pakistan and China.
The
legislation seeks to uplift India to the same status as America's allies in the
NATO, as well as its other major treaty partners like Japan, Australia, New
Zealand and Israel. According to Senator Mark Warner, "As an important
partner with a flourishing economy, India has huge potential as a market for
American defense manufacturers." On December 8, 2016, USA designated
India as its major defence partner with a view to expand bilateral defence
cooperation between both nations. This was announced by visiting US DefenceSecretary
Ashton Carter in New Delhi. The designation has placed India among the closest
allies and partners of the US.
Forgetting that Nehruhad raised a storm when
Pakistan had become part of SEATO and CENTO in 1954, asserting that the pacts
posed a threat to Indian security, and on this plea had taken a U turn on his
pledge to grant right of self-determination to the Kashmiris, Indiahas felt no
qualm in signing defenceagreementswith USA which have a direct bearing upon
Pakistan’s security.
Some analysts in India are viewing
these defence agreements with skepticism and are expressing fears that it will
reduce India to a client state and also render India more vulnerable to Jihadis
because of presence of US troops on Indian soil.
In line with its traditional policy of
appeasement, Pakistan had kept quiet when the discriminatory Indo-US nuclear
deal was inked in 2008. Itagain raised no objection over these provocative
agreements which are more threatening than the Indo-Soviet Peace and Friendship
Treaty signed in August 1971.
Pakistan had a strong reason to join western
pacts since India is five times bigger in size and resources,has five-time
larger armed forces with a strong defence industrial base, and above all it had
adopted a belligerent posture. Pakistan also had to contend with unfriendly
Afghanistan espousing the stunt of Pakhtunistan and refusing to recognize
Durand Line as an international border. India on the other hand has no external
threat since all the South Asian neighbors are smaller in size and militarily
weak.
China threat is just a bogey created by India to
extract maximum benefits from the US led West by pretending to be acting as a
bulwark against China.In real terms, India is enjoying friendly relations with
China and both have put the border dispute on the back burner to promote trade.
The two are having trade worth $70 billion, which is likely to shoot up to $100
billion in near future. China’s military policy is defensive and its foreign
policy is based on peace and friendship. It has no aggressive designs against
any country. Had India been threatened by China, it would have deployed bulk of
its armed forces against China and not against Pakistan? On ground, over 70% of
Indian strike formations and airbases are poised against Pakistan. Its Cold
Start doctrine is also Pakistan specific.
Even after cutting Pakistan into two and after
a lapse of 70 years, India has still not reconciled to the existence of
Pakistan. Its sinister designs are evident from its massive covert operations
launched in FATA, Baluchistan and Karachi with the help of proxies since 2003.
It is resorting to coercive tactics by keeping the Line of Control in Kashmir
and working boundary in Sialkot sector heated up through unrelenting firing in
contravention to 2003 ceasefire agreement, carrying out false flag operations
in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK), fake surgical strike in Azad Kashmir,
intrusion by drone and submarine and hurling threats. Recently, Indian Home
Minister Jagnath Singh chimed that Pakistan will be broken into 10 pieces.It
has now started to reduce the water flow in the three Pakistan specific rivers
emanating from IOK to make Pakistan barren. India has spurned peace overtures
of Pakistan and refuses to talk on the core issue of Kashmir, which has become
a nuclear flashpoint.
India has all along aspired to become a world
power and still nourishes the myth of Maha Bharat woven in 19th
century. For the accomplishment of its ambitions, India considers Pakistan as
the only stumbling block and a thorn in its flesh.It keeps hatching
conspiracies how to remove the thorn and undo Pakistan. India cannot reconcile
with politically stable, economically and militarily strong Pakistan equipped
with nukes. Construction of CPEC and Gwadar Port have unnerved Indiasince the
project has the potential to rupture India’s grand design to debase, isolate,
encircle and destroy Pakistan. Indiais desperately finding ways how to scuttle
this project.
One of the reasons of boosting trade with
China is to pull it away from Pakistan. India has succeeded in spoiling
Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan and in creating misgivings in Pak-Iran
relations. Forging closer ties with Saudi Arabia and Gulf States were also
aimed at isolating Pakistan. However, India failed to spoil Pak-China relations
that are scaling new heights after the commissioning of CPEC.
As if the irritant of CPEC was not enough, ongoing
uprising in IOK has rattled India. In sheer frustration, it has stepped up propaganda
campaign to get Pakistan declared as a terror abetting state. To this end,
Narendra Modi has missed no opportunity to demean Pakistan. He tried to garner
the support of the members of BRICS at Goa and of Heart of Asia Conference at
Amritsar but Russia bailed out Pakistan on both occasions by rebuffing India’s
vilification and appreciating Pakistan’s role in combating terrorism.
However, India managed to get a favorable
response from the US administration by way of increased pressure on Pakistan to
deal with Haqqani network and Afghan Taliban leaders allegedly based in
Pakistan. Release of close support fund has been made conditional to action
against the US nominated militants. Indian lobby in USA was behind the passage
of resolution by the US Congress declaring Pakistan as a terrorist state.
Afghan peace process pursued by USA, China,
Afghanistan and Pakistan has been scrapped and a new group comprising USA,
India and Afghanistan formed. Purpose was to lower the importance of Pakistan
and to promote India. It is so far a non-starter.
The
silence by the US over increased violations by India across the Line of Control
and the Working Boundary, targeting civilians including passenger buses and
ambulances in AK, as well as its brutal campaign of repression in Kashmir
points to the fact that it has willfully overlooked these transgressions by
India in the light of its growing alliance partnership with India. Pressure
has even been exerted on China not to transfer advanced weaponry and
technologies to Pakistan.
Worse, the US appears to be encouraging closer ties
between India and the GCC states, especially Saudi Arabia. The US had a hand in
Indo-Saudi and Indo-UAE high profile economic deals. There may be an
Iranian gambit as well. Given India’s close relations with Iran and informal
US-Iranian cooperation against the militant Islamic State group in Iraq and
Syria, collaboration between the US, India and Iran to ‘stabilise’ Afghanistan
cannot be ruled out.
Unless this dynamic is changed, Pakistan’s
capabilities for conventional defence and nuclear deterrence against India
could be significantly eroded.
Seen in this perspective, the US alliance with India
has negative implications for Pakistan’s security. Although
there may be rough times ahead in the relationship with the US, Pakistan’s
diplomacy will have to be both dynamic and imaginative.
Much to the chagrin of India, Russia is slowly
and steadily getting nearer to Pakistan. Russia and Pakistan
held their first-ever consultation on regional issues on December 14, 2016 in
Islamabad. During the consultations, a wide range of regional issues as
well as key areas of mutual interest, including economic cooperation and
connectivity were discussed.
In the wake of Russia evincing interest in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), there is a distinct possibility that
sooner than later, Russia will jump on to the bandwagon of CPEC in pursuit of
its age old dream of reaching the warm waters. Once that happens, it will open
vistas for an alliance between Russia, SCO countries, China and Pakistan. This
grouping will turn into a bigger magnet to attract Iran, South Asian and Middle
East countries. 64 countries are likely to join CPEC. Pakistan by virtue of its
strategic location will become the hub of the strategic corridor. Reason why
Iran will get tempted is Chahbahar seaport’s shallowness and India losing
interest in its development. The route from China to Chahbahar via Afghanistan suffers
from insecurity since it passes through Taliban controlled regions over which
the Afghan troops have negligible control.
Another factor which is drawing Russia,
Central Asian States and Iran toward Pakistan is the threat of terrorism and
Pakistan’s admirable role in tackling the menace. Its achievements outmatch all
other countries engaged in counter terrorism since 2001. Unstable and insecure
Afghanistan doesn’t suit any regional country.
The US and India are stoking terrorism in
Afghanistan and exporting terrorism from Afghanistan into neighboring countries
particularly Pakistan. The duo, viewed as spoilers, teamed up with corrupt and
inefficient unity govt in Kabul, despite being on a weak wicket want peace on their
terms and is pressurizing Pakistan to force the Taliban to agree.
Having read the ill intentions of USA and
India, Russia has offered its services and a new group comprising Russia, China
and Pakistan has come into being to broker peace in Afghanistan. This group has
better prospects since all its members have better understanding with the Taliban.
Possible inclusion of Iran will further fortify this group.
The
US-India DTTPA underlines the dramatic change in today's political environment.
For India, access to advanced US weaponry and technology means that it can now
pursue an aggressive military modernisation. Military balance in the
region gets further disturbed due to continued supply of arms to India by Russia.
The
US growing tilt towards India must be seen in the context of limited
convergence of interest with Pakistan and the new administration under Donald
Trump that will be taking over the White House on January 20, 2017. Pakistan
aligned with China doesn’t fit into the security paradigm of Washington.
Alongside an assertive diplomatic offensive,
Pakistan's military response too must also be well-calibrated and considered in
order to meet these adverse developments. At the military level, Pakistan must
ensure a defensive and asymmetrical capability, including the credibility of
its nuclear deterrence that would preserve its ability to deter any
conventional Indian military adventures. Pakistan's missile capabilities must
be multiplied along with ensuring the availability of anti-aircraft and
ballistic missile defence systems. On the sea, while it may not be possible to
go in for the expensive option of an aircraft carrier, Pakistan would need to
upgrade and add to its submarines, fast missile boats, as well as anti-submarine
warfare capabilities.
Strategic cooperation with China, and expanding
military and diplomatic cooperation with Russia will remain critical. Just as
the US is willing to share cutting-edge military technologies with India, China
and Russia must be cultivated to share their most advanced weapons systems with
Pakistan, including nuclear submarines, stealth aircraft, and anti-aircraft
carrier missiles. Russian weapons systems such as the S300 anti-ballistic
missile and the SU-31 fighter-bomber are among the best in class.
Red lines would also need to be drawn in Afghanistan.
Pakistan must impress upon the international community that no Indian military
presence or use of Afghan territory for subversion against Pakistan will be stomached.
In all likelihood, the chaos in Afghanistan may be
prolonged and Pakistan must make all efforts to continue to support
inter-Afghan dialogue.
Fostering an understanding with Iran and rebuilding a
close relationship with Saudi Arabia is also essential for restraining Indian
penetration in the Gulf.
Being immediate neighbours, friendship with
Afghanistan is a strategic compulsion and with Iran a strategic necessity for
Pakistan.
Most important of all, China will remain a critical
country whose cooperation is vital to ensure regional stability as Pakistan and
China work to strengthen regional connectivity through the CPEC.
Iran and Saudi Arabia at loggerheads need to shun
ideological confrontation and instead jointly work for restoration of peace in
war torn Middle East and carve out a regional security structure.
Last but not least, 2017 will be a highly challenging
year for Pakistan. Internal political wrangling and tug of war will intensify
and so would foreign hatched intrigues. Unity and consolidation of home front
are the best defence against external and internal
challenges.
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