Will Talks in Afghanistan
Succeed
Asif Haroon Raja
Afghanistan has traditionally remained friendly to India
and hostile to Pakistan since 1947. The only time it was friendly with Pakistan
and unfriendly with India was during the five-year rule of Taliban from 1996
till 2001. However, no government in Kabul had created a situation along the
western border to prevent Pakistan from shifting its three infantry divisions
from Peshawar, Kohat and Quetta for exercising offensive options during the
wars with India. Afghanistan under Hamid Karzai was worst of all since during
his over 13 years rule he allowed five foreign intelligence agencies to use
Afghan soil for carrying out covert war in FATA and Baluchistan at a massive
scale. As a consequence, 180,000 troops have got pinned down in FATA.
Mercifully, Frontier Corps has kept 12 Corps free in Baluchistan.
The incumbent unity government in Kabul installed in
November 2014 is the second government which is friendly to Pakistan but is also
friendly to India. The flaw in this setup is the forcible marriage of
convenience midwifed by the US between Ashraf Ghani and Dr. Abdullah after
their prolonged estrangement. The latter heading Northern Alliance is highly
pro-India and averse to Pakistan, although his aversion has now considerably
mellowed down as a consequence to sustained efforts put in by the ISI and some
others.
Even though Abdullah wants to come closer to Pakistan,
but his tilt towards India remains as pronounced as ever and is not likely to
come out of India’s magic spell in the foreseeable future. With 50% cabinet
ministries in the unity government, he holds controls on important portfolio of
intelligence. As a result, influence of India’s RAW in Afghanistan has not
diminished. RAW continues to patronise runaway TTP leaders like Maulana
Fazlullah and Khalid Omar Khurasani based in Kunar and Nangahar respectively. While
enumerating his foreign policy priorities, Ghani placed Pakistan, Iran and
China well above India. He undertook his maiden visits to China and Pakistan.
He also cancelled arms deal and military training agreements with India and
instead sent cadets to PMA Kakul for training for the first time. Rapport
between government to government and army to army intensified as a result of
flurry of exchange of visits. Afghan Army chief reviewed the parade in Kakul
for the first time. Both sides took practical measures to improve border
security situation and intelligence sharing to tackle common threat of
terrorism. All these developments consternated India which was all set to fill
up the security vacuum left behind by the withdrawing US-NATO troops and to
complete encirclement around Pakistan. Ghani was pressured by Abdullah to visit
New Delhi to allay India’s reservations that closeness with Pakistan will not
be at the cost of India.
Hamid Karzai and ex NDS chief Amrullah Saleh have joined
hands with Abdullah to keep Ghani under pressure and force him to shift his
tilt from Pakistan to India. Ghani who has made substantial contributions in
reforming financial systems as finance minister has no political roots. He is
caught between the rock and a hard place. On one hand, he has to bear the
pressure from within his government led by Abdullah and backed by Karzai led
faction of Pashtuns, and on the other is the surging Taliban who enjoy
influence over 75% of Afghan territory. They are primed up to intensify their
spring offensive and find the obtaining environment rapidly changing in their
favor. Currently, they have besieged northeastern capital of Kanduz and tough
battle is raging. They detest Bilateral Security Agreement, which has allowed
the US to retain 12000 troops till 2016. Obama had announced that by mid 2015
he would withdraw 50% of residual force, but now the US seems to be having
second thoughts on gradual reduction of troops.
This change of heart has occurred in the wake of
outstanding successes achieved by Operation Zarb-e-Azb, which not only pushed
out anti-Pakistan militants from North Waziristan (NW) but also anti-US
militant groups such as Haqqani network and Hafiz Gul Bahadur group that had
become dicey. This across the board operation which has broken the back of
militants has brought a visible change in the perceptions of Afghan, US,
Western and Chinese leaders and in turn has enhanced the respect and prestige
of Pakistan. The US military felt that with the dismantlement of safe haven in
NW, it had become easier for the Afghan National Army (ANA) backed by US
airpower/intelligence support to deal with the militants in eastern Afghanistan
and thus defeat the Taliban. However, when no success could be achieved at
their end and the Taliban continued to strike targets at will in all parts of
the country, the option of dialogue has been renewed. Doha talks had stalled in
June 2013 because of Karzai’s negativity.
Current effort is based on two prongs, one prong led by
Ghani and the other by the US and in both cases, Pakistan has been asked to
assist. China has also been given a green signal to play its role in restoring
peace in Afghanistan. Ghani kept urging the Taliban to join the unity
government, and this was one reason of 106 days delay in forming the 16-member
cabinet duly approved by Afghan parliament, but the Taliban didn’t agree. Obama
struck off Afghan Taliban from the category of terrorists and termed them as
insurgents fighting for their rights. He also declared that US troops would not
fire at Taliban unless provoked by them. Several airstrike requests from ANA
have been turned down. All these were reconciliatory moves to induce the Taliban
to negotiate and arrive at a political settlement and convince them to share
power.
Having failed to defeat the Taliban after spending billions
of dollars and using excessive force/torture as well as underhand tricks to
divide the Taliban, the US is left with no other option but to patch up with
the Taliban whom they had all these years been projecting as uncivilized, crude
terrorists deserving no mercy. The Taliban had been wrongly removed from power
in November 2001 and then consistently hounded and persecuted. The Taliban on
the other hand continued to fight back to free their homeland from foreign
occupation. Unlike in 1980s when the Afghan Mujahedeen fought and defeated the
Soviet occupying forces duly helped by Pakistan and the free world, this time
the Taliban performed the miracle single-handedly and under much adverse
conditions.
One reason behind frantic efforts to negotiate with the
Taliban is not-so-happy operational preparedness of the ANA to confront the
Taliban challenge. It may not be possible for the US to continue dishing out
$4.1 billion per year for the upkeep of Afghan security forces for long. Other
reason is inherent weakness of unnatural unity government engaged in power
tussle. Most of cabinet ministers including four women are new faces, moderate
and pro-west and have little experience of state-craft. Ghani’s effort to
curtail corruption is being fiercely resisted.
Other than the factor of impressive results achieved in
Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the other factor which has enhanced the importance of
Pakistan is its nearness with Taliban. Both the US and Afghan regime carry the
impression that Pakistan is in a position to bring the Taliban to the
negotiating table. While it is true that Pakistan does have some influence over
Taliban leaders since quite many were in its custody all these years, it is not
in a position to make them agree to the terms sought by the US. It can also not
give any guarantee to the Taliban that Afghan regime will abide by the terms of
agreement arrived at. Pakistan and China are however trying hard to create
conducive conditions for talks, but both are clear that the ultimate solution
will have to be found by the Afghans themselves and they can at best facilitate
dialogue. As a consequence to these silent efforts, the wheels of talks have
started to churn slowly in Doha and the Taliban have in principle agreed to
open their office there for the initiation of formal political dialogue, but
the way things stand, nothing is likely to come out of it. Unless demands of
Taliban seeking complete withdrawal of foreign troops
and bringing the US tailored constitution in line with Sharia are met, high hopes nurtured by stakeholders will remain elusive. It
will be like using shaker in a pitcher full of water and hoping to extract
butter.
Negotiated political settlement leading to broad based
government with Taliban, giving representation to them as per their demographic
strength will be an ideal arrangement since it will prevent civil war and
benefit Ashraf Ghani’s faction, Pakistan and China but may not be that
beneficial for Abdullah and non-Pashtun Northern Alliance since its power base
will shrink. It will also not suit India since balance of power will shift
towards Pakistan friendly Afghan Pashtun. Iran will also not be happy. In case
a settlement is reached without meeting the two demands of Taliban, the
implication is that there will be strong resentment among the rank and file of
the Taliban and other resistance forces. It will become very difficult for
Mullah Omar who has not been seen by anyone since December 2001 and is
reportedly not keeping very good health, to control the dissenters. It will
lead to destructive infighting which will be further stoked by India and other
foreign powers and may lead to division of Afghanistan. Weakening of Taliban will create space for Da’esh in Afghanistan, which
will be more dangerous for the whole region, since Da’esh is vying to
re-establish ancient Khurasan state, which comprised of parts of Central Asia,
Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan.
‘East Turkistan’ movement is the most dangerous threat to
the stability and security of Sinkiang Province and support of Taliban and TTP to
Uighars is regarded by China as most serious external threat. Afghanistan had
become base of operation of Uighars during five-year Taliban rule. To win over
Afghanistan, China has been steadily increasing its economic support. So far,
its total investment in various development project totals $10 billion, and it
has procured biggest exploratory projects of oil and gas as well as
construction of refinery. Pakistan is playing a key role in creating goodwill
space for China in Afghanistan and in mending its relations with Taliban.
Turmoil in Afghanistan will be to the advantage of
adversaries of Muslims and to the big disadvantage of Pakistan. It wil also
adversely impact China’s economic aggression in the region and its plan to
connect Gwadar with Afghanistan. In order to prevent the chaos, China, Pakistan
and Iran should collectively help the intra-Afghan dialogue to proceed smoothly
till comprehensive political settlement benefiting all factions of Afghans
irrespective of ethnic divisions. Best course is to
honor the collosal sacrifices of the Taliban and let them form the future broad
based government without outside interference.
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