Pakistan’s Foreign Policy
and Current Challenges
Asif Haroon Raja
Overview
Pakistan has, since birth, been faced with one
crisis after another. Tense geo-political environment created by hostile India
and unfriendly Afghanistan was the motivating factor which impelled our leaders
to accord preference to security over developing institutions and strengthening
the economy. Security concerns governed our foreign policy.
Pakistan joined western pacts mainly to find
an umbrella to mitigate its security concerns. But the US never became a
trustworthy and sincere ally, as was the case of former Soviet Union with
India. The western pacts proved elusive when Pakistan was truncated in 1971.
India had been working upon East Bengal since
1948 with the aim of subverting the minds of Bengalis and poisoning their minds
against people of West Pakistan through an orchestrated subversion plan.It
wanted to disprove Two-Nation theory. India in collusion with former Soviet
Union and supported by several other countries hatched the gory plan of
dismemberment of Pakistan. After nine months insurgency, Indian military jumped
in to cut Pakistan to size and create Bangladesh. Indira Gandhi chortled that
Two-Nation theory had been sunk into the Bay of Bengal.
In the aftermath of 9/11, another
international conspiracy was hatched to dismember Pakistan. This time the conspiracy was much larger in
scope and more dangerous in intent. Pakistan was to be befriended and then cut into
four quasi states. In this, India is being supported by USA, Afghanistan,
Britain, Israel and the West in general. The tools in use are TTP, BLA, BRA,
BLF, MQM and segment of media bolstered by bloggers, foreign paid NGOs and international
media.Daesh is the latest group added to their arsenal.
The goals are to destabilize, de-Islamise, denuclearise and
balkanize Pakistan using covert means and psychological operations.
Pakistan was made to fight terrorism on its
soil, then accused of harboring terrorists in safe havens in FATA and aiding
cross border terrorism in Afghanistan, occupied Kashmir and India, and then
constantly pressed to do more. The terrorist groups in FATA, Baluchistanwere funded,
equipped and trained to fight and exhaust Pak security forces. MQM was funded
and its militants trained in India to make Karachi lawless.
India and Afghanistan were projected as
victims of terrorism and Pakistan as an incubator of terrorism. Covert war
launched from Afghan soil in 2002 has incurred a loss of 60,000 fatalities,
injuries to tens of thousands, destruction of property, $ 118 billion financial
loss and immense social trauma. Pakistan has come under foreign debt of $70
billion.
The US imposed War on Terror has heightened
ethnicity, sectarianism, extremism, provincialism, political instability,
economic fragility and moral degeneration of society as a whole.
As a result of these frailties,Pakistan which is
a nuclear power with robust armed forces that are second to none, has abundant
resources and resilient manpower,it has become vulnerable to foreign coercion,
manipulation and aggression.
Of all the crisis faced by Pakistan in its 70
years history, the present one is perhaps the most dangerous, both in terms of
its nature and its possible consequences. Without doubt, Pakistan is in the
vortex of grave dangers and the country today stands at the cusp of survival
and disaster. The Titans that have marked Pakistan as a target are impatient to
fragment it.
Pakistan’s Foreign Policy
Having given the
background and overall geo-political environment, I shall now discuss the five stages
through which Pakistan’s foreign policy has moved forward to confront multiple
challenges.
Quaid-e-Azam MA
Jinnah had spelt out Pakistan’s foreign policy soon after the birth of Pakistan
in these words:
"Our objective should be peace within and peace
without. We want to live peacefully and maintain cordial and friendly relations
with our immediate neighbors and with world at large. We have no aggressive
designs against any one. We stand by the United Nations Charter and will gladly
make our contribution to the peace and prosperity of the world."
"Our foreign
policy is one of the friendliness and goodwill towards all the nations of the
world. We do not cherish aggressive designs against any country or nation. We
believe in the principle of honesty and fair-play in national and international
dealings, and are prepared to make our contribution to the promotion of peace
and prosperity among the nations of the world. Pakistan will never be found
lacking in extending its material and moral support to the oppressed and
suppressed peoples of the world and in upholding the principles of the United
Nations Charter."
Pakistan opened diplomatic relations
with all the countries of the world except Israel owing to Palestinian
dispute. Successive regimes made
concerted efforts to normalize relations with India but failed because of unresolved
Kashmir dispute and India not reconciling to the existence of Pakistan. In its
desire to become the unchallenged big power of South Asia, India whipped up
frenzy against all its neighbors. Itapplied multiple pressures on Pakistan and
went to war thrice so as to force Pakistan to accept its hegemony and become
its vassal state.
Pakistan in search of security and
recognition
Pakistan started its journey as a non-aligned
nation and remained the member of Non Aligned Movement from 1947 till 1954. In
the first 15 years of Pakistan’s life, the founding leaders remained deeply
engrossed in establishing credentials of Pakistan’s statehood in the face of
massive propaganda of India that Pakistan was a monstrosity. It was described
as a transient phenomenon and Indian economic wizards had given six months life
to Pakistan. International recognition was sought and obtained in those
agonizing years.
In its formative years, Pakistan attached
importance to relations with Muslim countries and championed Muslim causes. Its
efforts to build Muslim unity couldn’t make any headway. It cultivated special
ties with Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Pakistan joined western pacts
Aggressive posturing of India, its
expansionist designs and intentions to absorb Kashmir, together with
Afghanistan’s enmity, former USSR’s heavy tilt towards India, deepening
economic crisis in early 1950s, sense of isolation, and the UN and Commonwealth
failing to resolve the Kashmir dispute were some of the reasons which impelled
Pakistan to jointhe US created SEATO and Baghdad Pact/CENTO in 1954/55. Thereon,
its foreign policy was governed by the US interests.
Pakistan became part of the US defensive arc
stretching to Iran and Turkey to contain spread of communism in South Asia and
Middle East. Pakistan did so despite the fact that it had no direct clash with
USSR, and had to pay a heavy price for it. When Pakistan acted as a conduit in
1971 to bring China closer to USA, it further antagonized Moscow and it decided
to teach Pakistan a lesson.
Alignment with USA however, helped Pakistan in
improving its economy and defence capability phenomenally during the 10-year
Ayub’sgolden era.
Tilt towards China
After the Indo-Sino border clash in 1962, in
the wake of Moscow, Washington and the West providing arms to Indiaat the cost
of disturbing the regional military balance, Ayub Khan started tilting towards
China and Russia. This move was seen as an act of defiance by USA and it
decided to penalize him. The US discriminatory attitude was discernible in the
1965 War with India when it stopped extending economic and military assistance
including supply of spare parts, whereas Russia kept supplying arms to India.
It is believed that both ZA Bhutto and Sheikh
Mujib were cultivated to trigger agitations in both the wings to bring down
Ayub regime and then pave the way for dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971.
Southwestern Asian Identity and policy
of Bilateralism
After the 1971 tragedy, ZA Bhutto scrapped SEATO
pact and membership of Commonwealth stating that those had proved worthless. He
then tried to carve out Southwest Asian identity so as to draw economic
strength and security from oil rich Arab States. This tilt towards the Gulf
States brought in financial bonanza and job opportunities for Pakistan in 1970s
and also gave an opportunity to Pak military to make inroads into GCC States.
Saudi Arabia never hesitated toextend financial support to Pakistan in its
testing times.
Another change in Pakistan’s foreign policy
was affected after the Simla agreement in 1972 which led to policy of
bilateralism and non-alignment. Ceasefire line in Kashmir was renamed as LoC
and Kashmir issue put on the backburner. India however, maintained its
belligerent policy and carried out nuclear test at Pokhran in August 1974,
which impelled ZA Bhutto to go nuclear.
Afghan war (1980-1989)
Pakistan-US relations nosedived when Pakistan
under Gen ZiaulHaq was put under sanctions in April 1979 by Carter regime on
account of suspicion that it was pursuing nuclear program covertly. However,
the Afghan war in 1980s once again made Pakistan a close ally of USA and was bestowed
with $3.5 billion assistance and F-16 jets.
Pakistan had to face Russo-Afghan-India nexus
and Al-Zulfiqar terrorism (militant wing of PPP). The Afghan war brought
Pakistan coolness in Pak-Iran relations but brought Afghanistan under
Mujahideen very close to Pakistan. Both talked of providing strategic depth to
each other.
Pakistan’s challenges in Post-cold war
era
After the breakup of USSR in 1991 and end of
Cold War era, Pakistan was faced with multiple foreign policy issues. The US
abandoned Pakistan, imposed sanctions on it under Pressler Amendment and
befriended India.
Pakistan was up against Indo-US-Israeli nexus
geared toward destroying Kahuta plant.
The other issue was the fallout effects of
Afghan war in the form of Kalashnikov and drug cultures,load of 3.5 million
refugees, radicalization of the society and sectarianism fomented by Iran and
Saudi Arabia.
The other was the armed uprising in occupied
Kashmir which forced India to pump in 750,000 security forces to quell the
insurgency and to propagate that Pakistan was abetting it.
Pakistan had to bear with domino effect of
Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988).
And lastly, nuclear explosions by the two arch
rivals in May 1998. Pakistan’s external climbed up. These challenges made the
democratic era weak and uninspiring.Despite being repeatedly betrayed, Pakistan
didn’t deem it fit to diversify its foreign policy and kept its hopes alive to
get into the good books of USA.
Impact of 9/11
9/11 changed the global politics and Pakistan was
once again befriended by USA and made a coalition partner to fight global war
on terror as a frontline state. Pakistan for a second time shifted all its eggs
in the basket of USA.
Between 2004 and 2008, Indo-Pak relations
improved as a result of peace treaty and resumption of dialogue, giving rise to
optimism that core disputes will be resolved. Euphoria died down after the
Mumbai attacks in November 2008 when India blamed Pakistan. Indo-Pak relations
have hit rock bottom after Modi led BJP regime espousing Hindutva came to power
in June 2014.
Ongoing fast changing global dynamics and ever
growing strategic partnership between USA and India has impelled Pakistan
policy makers to revisit foreign policy and suitably modify it to meet the
future challenges.
Pakistan’s
current challenges
India has not reconciled to the
existence of Pakistan and strives to reduce it to the status of a Satellite
State.
India
is strategic partner of the US, Israel, Afghanistan and is the darling of the
west. The trio is pursuing common objective of destroying Pakistan.
India
is making concerted efforts to destabilizePakistan through covert war, encirclePakistan
by consolidating its presence in Afghanistan, Central Asian Republics (CARs),
building North-South Corridor linking Mumbai with Bandar Abbas; and connecting Chabahar
with Afghanistan-CARs.
India
is working hard to isolate Pakistan by tarnishing its image and spoiling its
relations with Afghanistan, Iran, Gulf States and the US.
Kashmir
is an internationally recognized dispute but India stubbornly maintains that it
is its integral part well knowing that the Kashmiris hate Indians and want
freedom at all cost.
To keep
Pakistan on the defensive and force it to forget Kashmir, India is playing
terrorism card, Baluchistan and Sindh cards, and water terrorism to bend
Pakistan on its knees.
India’s
Cold Start doctrine is aimed at offsetting Pakistan’s strategic nuclear
doctrine, and executing it at a time when bulk of Pak forces had got pinned
down in designated restive areas.
Upturn
of Pakistan’s sunk economy and its image, control over energy crisis and
terrorism coupled with development works and fast progressing CPEC have
increased the anxieties of India. To give vent to its frustrations, it is
carrying out unprovoked firing across the LoC and working boundary in Kashmir
relentlessly.
For
all practical purposes, Pakistan has fallen from the grace of USA and time is
not far when it will be once again be ditched and put under harsh sanctions.
Indo-US-Israel
agenda of disabling Pakistan’s nuclear program,or as a minimum curtailing its
minimum deterrence capability remain unchanged.
Afghanistan
under Hamid Karzai remained aligned with India and hostile to Pakistan. Afghan
Unity governmentunder Ghani-Abdullah is far worse.
Pak-Iran
relations are frosty and practically, Iran is more close to India and
Afghanistan.
Net outcome in 2017
Pakistan foreign policy makers are faced with
perpetually hostile India, near hostile Afghanistan, and the changed attitude
of the US. Washington has callously whipped Pakistan under its ‘do more’ policy
and is now hurling warnings. Its heavy tilt towards India is a matter of
anxiety for Pakistan.
Iran nurtures grouses on account of Pakistan’s
closeness with Saudi Arabia, and for sending Gen Raheel to Riyadh to head
41-member Sunni Muslim States Alliance.
Warmth in relationship with GCC States has
diluted because of Pakistan not agreeing to send troops to Saudi Arabia to ward
off threat from Yemen. Saudi-Qatar tiff is another challenge faced by Pakistan
since it cannot afford to take sides.
Pakistan
has been deliberately kept politically unstable by making it play the game of
ladder and snake so that it remains economically dependent. It was pulled down
whenever it grew economically strong. That is why it has been lurching from one
crisis to another in its 70 years checkered history.
Pakistan
can ill-afford political disharmony and disunity at this critical juncture when
black clouds are hovering over its horizon.
Geo-political realities
Pakistan
is faced with multiple threats of Indo-US-Afghan covert war,
India’s Cold Start Doctrine, the US Af-Pak
doctrine, and Hybrid war and all these threats
have now become menacing.
The
threat to its security has heightened after the signing of three Indo-US
defence agreements in 2016 and the US openly expressing its enmity against
Pakistan and love for India.
India
is getting unnerved on account of high intensity freedom struggle in occupied
Kashmir, which is slipping out of its hands and is endangering the unity of
India. India has no other choice except to keep persecuting the Kashmiris
ruthlessly, keep the LoC on fire and to diplomatically place Pakistan on back
foot.
Muslim
Pakistan, laced with nuclear/missile power and now getting economically strong
due to CPEC is unacceptable to USA, India and Israel. The trio may go to any extent to disrupt CPEC.
Pakistan
is faced with the threat of two-front
war from east and west, inauspicious
southwestern backyard, vulnerable
seacoast, not so friendly Gulf
States,together with internal waron
terror and political instability.
Pakistan’s
viable nuclear cum missile capability deters India from waging an open war.
Nuclear
factor has compelled India to resort to indirect strategy to weaken Pakistan
from within through unrelenting covert war, discredit and isolate it through
propaganda and diplomacy, extract its nuclear teeth clandestinely, and then
apply the military instrument through Cold Start doctrine.
Having
tried out all possible means short of war, the only other option left with
enemies of Pakistan is to create political chaos and logjam, paralyze the government
machinery and then trigger civil war as in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria. Many
are suspecting a game plan behind the current political imbroglio.
Success
of $21 trillion One-Road-One-belt project of China hinges on successful
completion of CPEC. In view of China’s ambition to become leading economic
power and its heavy economic stakes in CPEC, it is bound to come to the aid of
Pakistan whenever its security is threatened.
Pakistan
is a target and not an ally of USA. Earlier Pakistan gets out of the enchantment
of USA, better it will be.
Inferences
Any
expectation of goodwill and empathy from India, Afghanistan under Ghani and
USA, which in pursuit of their common objectives have been inflicting tens of
thousands of cuts on the body of Pakistan and its people,will be foolhardy.
The
newly appointed Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif in consultation with the new PM
KhaqanAbbasi, CJCSC Gen Zubair Hayat, and Army Chief Gen Qamar Bajwaneed to
revisit the foreign policy at the earliest to make appropriate changes after
correctly identifying friends and foes and accordingly diversifying the policy
to meet the upcoming challenges.
Foreign
policy instead of being defensive, apologetic and reactive, should be infused
with dynamism andpro-activeness.
The change in foreign policy should not be
abrupt, but gradual and orderly without violent fluctuations. The change should
be akin to autumn changing into winter, or winter into spring.
While
maintaining working relationship with USA, Pakistan should draw closer to China,
Russia, Central Asia, SCO, and ASEAN.
Pakistan
should work hard to bring Iran in the loop of China-Russia peace-talks
initiative, possibly draw in Turkey and conjointly work to restore peace in war
torn Afghanistan.
Pakistan
must strive to establish a friendly regime in Kabul.
Surging
Afghan Taliban and not the corrupt and inept unity government in Kabul toeing
Indo-US agenda should be kept in the loop.
Pakistan
should continue to play a mediatory role in Iran-Saudi ideological rivalry and
in Saudi-Qatar tiff to narrow down their differences and also allay the
misperceptions of Gulf States on account of Yemen crisis. It will be unwise to
call back Gen Raheel and detach Pakistan from 41-member Muslim Alliance.
CPEC
should be made use of as a strong magnet by our foreign policy makers to
attract as many nations from Central Asia, South Asia, Middle East, Africa and
Europe to ward off Indian inspired threat of isolation.
Gwadar-Chahbahar
economic rivalry should be converted into an opportunity to complement each
other’s strength.
Kashmir
is the jugular vein of Pakistan. Comprehensive and pragmatic Kashmir policy
should be devised to keep the cause of Kashmir alive.
Conclusion. While
many developing countries have raced ahead, Pakistan is still struggling and
has neither become an Asian tiger or a secure country. Political parties are
behaving irresponsibly and are advised to shun politics of agitation and
division and promote concept of “Unity in Diversity”. Strong and united home
front is the best defence against internal and external challenges.
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