The general pulls a fast one

(It is now quite clear that Musharraf would not quit until forced out by his successor or killed by the Afghan resistance. The latter is more likely because the new COAS, Musharraf says, "˜holds the same views' as him. I agree with the conclusion in this article: the Generals see the existence of a viable resistance as their lifeline. + Usman Khalid +)

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - A few days after President General Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency on November 10, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the secret service agency, met with leaders of the opposition parties to decide on a roadmap for a caretaker administration leading to general parliamentary elections in January and then to a post-election government.

The opposition parties, including the six-party religious alliance, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, and the ruling Pakistan Muslim League, finalized a seat adjustment mechanism through which these leading parties would receive significant representation in the next government.

At the same time, the ISI had a separate meeting with the Pakistan People's Party and assured its leader, Benazir Bhutto, that she would head a caretaker administration as prime minister.

As a result of these meetings, the opposition response to the declaration of the state of emergency was relatively muted - most reaction came from the legal profession, outraged at the sacking of Supreme Court judges, as well as the chief justice, and the suspension of the constitution.

But this week, the day that Pakistan finalized the details of a visit by US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, starting on Friday, it also announced an interim government - and without Bhutto. Mohammedmian Soomro, chairman of Pakistan 's Senate since 2003, was appointed interim prime minister to prepare for the parliamentary elections.

The message from the government to Bhutto was that it wanted a "non-controversial" premier. Bhutto's reaction was immediate and cutting - she called on Musharraf to step down as president, something she had not done before. But again the reaction of her supporters and those of other opposition groups was muted and they were unable to mobilize a significant show of strength on the streets.

Even Imran Khan, the leader of one of the smaller opposition parties, Tehrik-e-Insaf, was handed over to the authorities by students of one of the parties close to his.

So at the time of Negroponte's visit, there are unlikely to be any opposition rallies, and he will be advised that the only players in the ring are militants, including the Taliban, and the Pakistani military headed by Musharraf. And Negroponte will be told that the military is quite capable of dealing with this threat.

In other words, the US-inspired plan for Musharraf to form a political alliance with Bhutto is off the table - for now at least. Lulled by Musharraf's intrigues, Bhutto has not been able to stitch together an alliance of opposition parties.

In the meantime, perhaps as a show for Negroponte, Musharraf has switched on the "war on terror" in the Swat Valley in North-West Frontier Province . Over the past few days there has been a surge in military operations in the area against militants, including the Pakistani Taliban.

Musharraf can flick the off switch at any time, subject to the demands of the militants. They have already been granted their call for sharia law in the Swat Valley , but the real issue is the withdrawal of Pakistani troops from the key areas from which supplies are sent to the Taliban in Afghanistan .

Either way, Negroponte knows that he will be dealing with Musharraf, who for now has effectively sidelined the opposition.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com