Chronological events and AAZ

by

Dr Ghayur Ayub

There are some strange linkages in certain chronological events that faced Pakistan in the first decade of 21^st century. The trends continue. Some would label them part of 'conspiracy theories, other would call them, ‘coincidences’ or ‘prudent planning’.

The term 'conspiracy theory' was first used in 1871 in an article in the Journal of Mental Science with reference to the Fifth Quarterly Meeting of the Medico-Psychological Association, now known as the Royal College of Psychiatrists. With changing human psyche according to societal development the meaning changed accordingly. It is generally presumed that the conspiracy theorists believe that complex plots are put into motion by powerful hidden forces to steal power, money or freedom from the people. Since the mid-1960s the term has acquired a somewhat derogatory meaning, implying a paranoid tendency to see the influence of some malign covert agency in events. When such theories turn factual, as 'Watergate break in', they are relabeled as investigative journalism or historical analysis.

‘Coincidences’, on the other hand, are described as, “a collection of two or more events or conditions, closely related by time, space, form, or other associations which appear unlikely to bear a relationship as either cause to effect or effects of a shared cause, within the observer's or observers' understanding of what cause can produce what effects”. In science, the term means when two rays of light strike a surface at the same point at the same time with no implication that the alignment of events is surprising or noteworthy. For intuitive people coincidences are full of noteworthy meanings unexplained through logic in the beginning but proved correct later when the conclusive results appear logical in hind-side discussions.

‘Prudent planning’ is part of human calculation about future strategies based on elaborate assessments. Quran speaks of such planning in the Sura 3:54.

Which brand, if any, can be linked to the following chronological events is a matter I would leave to the thinking mind of the reader;

• Early 2001; General Musharaf was considered as a thorn in the back of democracy. America demeaned him in every possible way. A year earlier the US President reluctantly met him on his flying visit to Pakistan.
• 9/11/2001; Twin Towers and Pentagon were attacked. Within a week Gen Musharaf got the famous 'phone call', which changed his fortune. He became the darling of the Americans and personal friend of President Bush.
• 2002; Benazir Bhutto, after desperate attempts, managed to make contacts with the third tier American political elites.
• August, 2002; Asif Ali Zardari was transferred to the plush top floor of Pakistan Institute Medical Science especially prepared for the VVIPs. At one stage Mr Shahbaz Sharif was admitted to it when he was the Chief Minister of Punjab in 1997/98.
• 2002-2004; Musharaf had full control over the events wearing four caps. His relations with Saudi King improved.
• 2004/2005; BB managed to upgrade her contacts in America with influential second tier elites. AAZ was released in 2004 and went to Dubai but returned in 2005 and failed to start a new political career in Lahore.
• 2004/2005; Americans started to demand ‘do more’ from Musharaf.
• 2005; BB made contacts with Nawaz Sharif in Jeddha.
• 2005; Swiss Cases against BB and AAZ were reaching to a conclusive end. Fearing arrest, AAZ flew to America suffering from back and cervical ailments which changed later to mental disability.
• 2005/2006; contacts between BB and NS increased which led to signing of CoD in May 2006.
• 2006; BB convinced the second tier US personalities that Pakistan needed 'true democracy' that was friendly with Afghanistan, India and the West.
• 2006; British/Americans arranged secret contacts between BB and Musharaf.
• 2006; Americans started to demean Musharaf through; 1) increasing rhetoric of 'do more', 2) Karzai of Afghanistan, 3) the emerging democratic forces in Pakistan.
• Autumn 2006; a private one-on-one four hour meeting was held between AAZ and a common friend at his flat in New York. In the meeting AAZ predicted that he was going to play pivotal role in global politics that included averting the clash of civilisations.
• Spring 2007; CJP was sacked leading to street demonstrations making Musharaf vulnerable to agree on NRO that became a certificate for 1) BB to go back to Pakistan, 2) AAZ to go to Dubai. .
• September 2007; BB landed in Karachi for an unprecedented welcome where a few months earlier Ch Iftekhar was not allowed to leave the airport. She was warned through Karsaz bombing to stick to the agreement. But soon she started to violate it to the distaste of the Americans.
• Nov 3rd 2007; second emergency-plus was declared and BB returned to Pakistan breaking a private visit to Dubai among confusions.
• December, 27th 2007; BB was assassinated in the midst of pre and post assassination controversies,
• End of 2007; AAZ came to Pakistan with a handwritten 'Will' making him the party leader. As a leader he transferred the leadership to his son NOT before changing his name to 'Bhutto'. He nominated himself the 'Co-chair person' of PPP for a specific period.
• 2008; AAZ took over the party with a 'new team', participated in elections and installed hand-picked PM, Speaker of the Parliament and Chairman Senate, aiming at the Presidency occupied by Musharaf, who by then, was repudiated by the Americans. He parleyed with Nawaz Sharif on principles of CoD convincing him to restore the Judiciary within one month.
• Americans found AAZ more amenable than BB to take the mutual understandings forward. Musharaf for them was a fallen pawn, NS a potential obstacle and Q-League not a 'Qatil-League'.
• PML-N left the coalition government in the centre within 6 weeks but AAZ let PPP continue in Punjab.
• August 2008; AAZ became the President and continued till the end of the first decade of the 21^st century. The rest is history.

For some, AAZ's prediction in the autumn of 2006 might be the most important event which if taken in context of 'prudent planning' could have serious consequences in view of Hussain Haqqani interactions with Mansoor Ijaz in Memmogate scandal. But then we have to keep in mind what Sura 3:54 says, “And Allah is the Best of the planners.” We saw it's reflection recently in Malik Riaz case.

The end