LETTER TO EDITOR

January 25^th, 2008

Myth of the Mandate

There exists a very wrong notion among the politicians each one of whom claims the support of 16 crore (some now say 17 crore) people of Pakistan . For almost everything that they want for themselves "“ essentially the power "“ they attribute it to the cause of the 16 or 17 crore masses to the fore front. Do they really enjoy the support that they keep haranguing about so incessantly? Let's analyse the figures a little dispassionately and without any bias or favour for any.

Please take the calculator to work it out for yourself.

The population of the country is estimated to be anything between 160 to 170 millions. We would, therefore, take the average figure of 165 million for our calculations.

According to the ECP website total number of the registered voters in Pakistan is  40,438,048.  That comes to 24.5 percent of the population. The voters' turn out has never been more than 50 percent in Pakistan .  For the coming elections, we would despite bomb blast fears, appeals by MMA and others to boycott, lack of interest by the easy going urbanites and intelligentsia, working people being away from their home towns where they are registered, if at all, embargos and taboos placed upon women folks in backward areas, etc.,  still take the best case of 50% turn out.  That will make the likely voters to be 12.25% of the population. Now there are usually at least three or four contestants in each constituency and as such the votes are divided among them. It would, therefore, be quite safe to assume that in MOST cases the winner will not poll more than 30 percent of the votes cast. That will give the winning party on the average the support of 3.675% of the population. 

Now this 3.675% of 165 millions is a fraction more than 6 million people!. That are IRREFUTABLE statistics, for which every Tom, Dick and Harry in Pakistan claims the support of 16 (now 17) crore awaam. 

And, please do understand that all those who have NOT voted for the winning party have cast their NEGATIVE vote against it either by abstaining or voting for someone else.  And, lo and behold - they number 159 millions "“ Pandra crore Nawway Lakh "“ nearly 16 crore awaam!!

What a myth of the "˜heavy mandates' and the support of 16 crore "“nay "“ 17 crore awaam

               Itni na baDha paaki-e-daamaaN ki hikaayat

            daaman ko zara dekh zara band-e-qaba dekh 

Truly

Col. Riaz Jafri (Retd)

30, Westridge-1,

Rawalpindi 46000

Tel: (051) 546 3344