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US, Kayani in tandem to keep out Nawaz Sharif
By M K Bhadrakumar
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2013/05/06/us-kayani-in-tandem-to-keep-out-nawaz-sharif/
(The article below, written by a former Indian diplomat, suggests that Nawaz Sharif (NS), who is ahead in the polls, may not make it after all. His thesis is wishful thinking but there is a real danger that NS may repeat the mistake made by Prime Minister Junejo in negotiating a settlement in Afghanistan when the Soviet forces withdrew. Mr Junejo was driven by his desire to show who the boss was. NS is driven by the same sort of thinking. He won 2/3rd majority in 1997 Elections and yet ended up being overthrown in a popular coup d’état as he needlessly took on the judiciary as well as the military. The disdain shown by him personally and his lieutenants like Khwaja Asif and Chaudhry Nisar towards ‘Generals’ shows they have learnt nothing. General Kayani has been the principle interlocutor with the USA and he has made Pakistan’s case very well. He realised early that he must stay on the right side of President Zardari to succeed. He would need the same support from the new government. If he does not get it, there will be no comprehensive settlement in Afghanistan and the bloodshed in Af-Pak region would intensify and continue for another 20 years much to the satisfaction of India. + Usman Khalid+)
It is one thing that the narrative is well-known but it is another thing that China’s Global Times newspaper should lend it credibility. Most certainly, Pakistani dictator Pervez Musharraf’s ‘return’ had the blessings of the army top brass in Rawalpindi and the high probability is that the generals and their western patrons are working in tandem.
An article in the GT, here, says: “Many analysts agree that the army is in no mood to see the secular and liberal parties to rule the country because then it would be hard to deal with their partners in the West, Why? Because, the secular and liberal parties would try to assert their power without getting any dictates from the military leadership to set the foreign policy priorities on their own… Some analysts believe that the military would try to do as it did in the past to get an elected government that would help deal with the US to bargain on Pakistan’s geostrategic role in the region as well as the issue of Taliban to keep the status quo intact.”
It is extremely rare for a leading Chinese newspaper to put searchlights on the dark secret that the Pakistani army’s unholy nexus with the United States has been the main threat to democracy in that country.
Interestingly, GT’s Op-Ed has appeared hardly 6 days after the ominous remarks by the Pak army chief Ashfaq Kayani in a nationally televised speech warning in no uncertain terms about the dangers of keeping Musharraf out of politics.
To be sure, a keen tussle lies ahead between the civilian and military leadership in Pakistan. The army feels uneasy about the prospect of a new civilian government led by Nawaz Sharif.
Sharif on his part senses the lurking danger to Pakistan’s fledgling democracy and sizes up the threat posed by the nexus between Rawalpindi and Washington.
In the Reuters interview yesterday, here, Sharif hit out at the generals in Rawalpindi and their American patrons in equal measure warning against their shenanigans in the name of the struggle against militancy and terrorism.
Indeed, the Barack Obama administration is doing all it can to boost Kayani’s standing by adopting him as the US’s principal interlocutor in Pakistan — although in a matter of weeks a democratically-elected government is due to take over.
Secretary of State John Kerry hosted Kayani twice — in Amman and Brussels — in successive months and deputed a high-level team of US officials to meet the general in Rawalpindi.
On Friday, Kerry set aside protocol and made the exceptional gesture of phoning up Kayani to inform him about the appointment of James Dobbins as the new special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Islamabad lost no time to welcome Dobbin’s selection.
Kerry’s dalliance with Kayani is undercutting the position of Afghan president Hamid Karzai. An editorial in the establishment daily Dawn , here, openly pokes fun at Karzai’s isolation, warning him bluntly about the danger to his personal security.
The editorial estimates that the Pakistani military and the US government are “seemingly converging on what needs to be done next” in the reconciliation of the Taliban.
The GT Op-Ed, it seems, has appeared not a day too soon. Such frank discussion shows a keen awareness of the dialectics involving the democratic forces in Pakistan and the Rawalpindi-Washington nexus and its implications for regional security. ++
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