'Political Maturity - working side by side'

By

Col. Riaz Jafri (Retd)

February 18^th had many a surprise for the many but the  PMNL-Q was surprised "“ nay "“astonished the most. The previous rulers had lobbied extensively for over a year for their return to power utilising all resources at their disposal including the print and the electronic media to the utmost. Their performance in serving the masses had too not  been that bad either which had turned them quite complacent about their success. However, the lady luck known for its idiosyncrasies had other designs and showered her smiles upon the luckless exiles just returned. The sequence of the events for the great debacle took its shape somewhat like this.  March 9, 2007 "“ Chief Justice Iftikhar's removal -  was the start point of their road to decline. The events of May 12^{th "“} Karachi carnage, October 18^th -  Karachi bomb blast on BB's welcome procession and November 3^rd "“ Imposition of Emergency, proved to be the catastrophic milestones on their way to disaster. December 27^{th "“} BB's sad and sudden demise was the culminating last straw.  It just swept the country. The outcome of the general elections "“ internationally admitted to be by and large free, fair, transparent and peaceful "“ turned the tables entirely. PPP and ML-N emerged as the two largest political parties with the PML-Q, MQM and the ANP trailing behind. To the relief of many the religio-political parties were not to be much seen around and instead a fair number of independent contestants won their National and Provincial assembly seats under their own steam. However, there were no clear cut winners with the majority required to form the government at the centre or any of the provinces. Coalition was the order of the day and the buzz word all around. And, coalition has many manifestations unfortunately not all suave.  It strikes at the principles, personalities and perceptions.

The sceptre of an anticipated hung parliament was looming large which presented the major political parties with a situation that required high level of political maturity to counter it effectively . Either the major parties could form their own nucleolus power centres attracting smaller parties and independent members into their orbits to form the governments by themselves, or they could share the power between themselves - the major partners - with accommodating the  smaller players also on pro rata  basis. The former option was fraught with obvious discomfiture of having a marginal majority with ever-urking apprehension of being toppled over any time. The latter enjoyed  the advantage of the confidence provided by the mutual support offered by the erstwhile archrivals and also had the semblance of the national consensus which such an arrangement projected to the nation and the world.  They opted for the latter.

It is a significant change in the political culture of Pakistan, where the major parties mostly worked against each other in the past , vying and wooing the power at any cost.  By signing the Murree Declaration the two leaders - Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif "“ have shown great political maturity and transformed a "˜hung' parliament into a nearly two third joint majority mandate, not to the liking of all. This is bound to impact the future of the democracy and the politics in the country and to a great extent too. Such a coalition though has an inbuilt mechanism of interdependence to keep its mutual bond intact yet, needs careful, transparent and above the board interaction and consultations between the two to keep it working smoothly. Those terming the Murree Accord as an extension of the Charter of Democracy tend to lose sight of the fact that much water has flown under the bridge since then. Most of all the towering personality of the BB is missing from the scene. With her gone, the priorities and the goals also might undergo some changes. Not only that, there might emerge some conflicting issues and interests between the major protagonists. Annulling the third time PM constitutional clause  may not now have the same priority with the PPP as it would have for the ML-N.  Reinstating the constitution before November 3^rd position would though restore the "˜PCOed' Judges but would also do away with the NRO, reconstituting all the charges against Zardari and many others.  Musharraf factor, to my mind, might cause the biggest strain on the fragile bond. Apart from the post and pre elections meetings of the US ambassador and the other US visiting dignitaries with the political stalwarts of almost all significant parties, the hush hush meeting of the President himself with the late Benazir Bhutto in Dubai, where she had flown from London urgently in the company of the Former Additional DG FIA Rehman Malik, who was fired by the then  Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, leave little doubt in one's mind about the matters discussed therein and the expected outcome there from. The American administration has made its intentions of preferring Musharraf and maintaining status quo in the matter of the Judges known to all in so many words on so many occasions. So was BB known to be in cahoots with them and supported their war on terror. Zardari and the PPP having publicly announced to carry forward  BB's agenda and policies stand committed to align themselves overtly or covertly with Musharraf. The ML-N and the Sharif brothers, on the other hand, want nothing short of Musharraf's removal and the reinstatement of the deposed judges. Zardari has for the time being managed to stall their strong stand and thrown the ball in the parliament's court to smash or parry it within the 30 days of its coming into session. The black coats have, however, thrown in their gauntlet giving an ultimatum of starting the count down for it from the day the NA is sworn into session. In the absence of Zardari "“ the Co-Chairman of the PPP and Sharif brothers from the house, a lot will depend upon the political acumen of the leaders of the house and the opposition to contain the conflagration, who have been surprisingly not yet named.  One of the apparent causes for it seems to be the respective reservations of the top leaders of either side for the PM slot. Makhdoom Fahim Ameen "“ President of the PPPP "“ and one of the senior most politicians of the party was the natural choice as he had been pronounced the party nominee to be the PM by none less than the BB herself. His such candidacy was solemnly reconfirmed by none other than Asif Ali Zardari "“ Co-Chairman PPP - himself on the 29^th of December 2007 at Naudero  in front of a blaze of the national and international media. Then something went wrong somewhere and other  issues like the PM being from Punjab or Sindh and/or looking for an interim 40-day PM to ultimately enable Zardari to ascend the throne (after bye elections) started going rounds. Surprisingly, Zardari, who had categorically announced on so many occasions not to become the PM, also seems to have succumbed to the temptation as indicated in his interview to an international weekly of world repute in which he considered himself to be eligible for the post more than anyone else in the party.  That has signalled the first signs of the fissures in the party.

Anyway as the Parliament is expected to be convened on March 17th the leader of the house and possibly by default the prime minister will have to be nominated latest by March 20^th to keep the parliament going.  It would be then that the real power players will surface. Who knows  the Maulana "“ famous for finding favours with every ruling party "“ and the independents in abundance could bring about a coalition of convenience with a PPP forward block (may right now be in the offing) and the rest of the pro Musharraf parties to get the necessary numbers to form the government?

I any case the PPP, ML(N), ANP, the Independents and a few Turn Coats are not likely to enjoy the 2/3^rd majority of some consequence in the lower house and certainly not in the upper house (for another two years to come). So Musharraf seems to be safe for the time being and the Judges just as ever hopeful but in limbo "“ notwithstanding the country wide agitation and protestations of the black coats. As a matter of fact the new government would be faced with a plethora of highly pressing immediate demands of the masses, like atta, bijli gas, gasoline, price hike, unemployment, water etc that they have promised to them to allow themany time or interest to tend to the constitutional anomalies or look for the ways and means for removing an "˜unloved dictator'.  If I may throw in my two pence advice,  please serve the masses while you can. Stay together and work side by side. God has given you an opportunity to change the entire political culture of this country. Let the treasury and the opposition work for the progress and advancement of the country, the masses and Islam. I shudder to think and sincerely pray that your love for one another is not based on Hate Musharraf syndrome. Could it be --- with Musharraf gone the dragon with the old instinct of selfish politics might reappear "“ God Forbidding.  

Truly

Col. Riaz Jafri (Retd)

30, Werstridge-1

Rawalpindi 46000

Tel: (051) 546 3344

e.mail: jafri@rifiela.com