General Musharraf is now feeling much more confident over the judicial crisis. The issue has dragged long enough and it has not gained the critical momentum to overthrow him. Opposition wanted to use the occasion to generate momentum for the elections. Now with elections coming closer, the issue is not giving any major support to the opposition in the election process. In fact it is draining their resources from the critical election campaigning. The signs of fatigue are now clear in opposition and lawyers. The Lawyers and Chief Justice camp are still noisy and generating some support from the opposition but they are running out of steam and ideas to keep the momentum of their campaign. In fact, they have erred on many counts which have strengthened the hands of General Musharraf and have given him hope that we will live through this. But that does not mean that it is going to be smooth sailing for General Musharraf from now on. It is not to be. But before we initiate our this weeks analysis, a quick refresher from past weeks would keep us focused.

Last week on June 3^rd we wrote:

"With both sides making blunders in the past few weeks, it is now a battle of nerves, luck and good advice which would outmaneuver the other. General Musharraf's stake is higher than the oppositions in this epic struggle. He is faced with losing all while the opposition has nothing in hand and stands only to gain something if they win. There is no margin of error for the General's camp at all. Also, what he wants to achieve is almost impossible now considering that his own camp is falling apart, his allies are bitterly divided and his advisors are not expected to pull him out of this mess after landing him there at the first place. He wants a re-election in uniform from these present assemblies in October. This seems like a bridge too far too riddled with obstacles to reach or cross. He will have to settle for much less "“ perhaps an honorable exit or a weakened Presidency without uniform at its best. All other options are dangerous and high risk proposals to venture but as we write, he is not considering the safer options. The ultimate showdown is not very far now "“ just 3 to 4 months max if not earlier. Till, then this existing battle will continue on all fronts between the government and the opposition"

On May 27^th, we had written about the reasons which could keep him afloat despite these challenges by the judiciary and the lawyers: 

Can he survive this test? He may still for some time for following reasons.

1. The movement has not become a mass civil disobedience movement yet. It is limited to lawyers, political parties and few members of superior Judiciary. 
2. Military is still with General Musharraf and so far no signs to suggest that his primary constituency will ask him to quit. It is under stress but not at snapping point yet. 
3. US is increasing pressure on him but not in a hurry to get rid of him forthwith. This may allow him to renegotiate his position with US to seek their patronage and cooperation once again. There are clear signs to this affect that US wants him to accept their terms for new lease of life to their relationship. 

If any of the above factors decide to go against him in a decisive manner, he will be ousted. Now the situation is not under his control but he is a hostage of the situation around him.

So it was very natural that when the first two of the above three conditions began to go in his favor, he would turn all his attention to satisfying the third condition which would not just assure him a new lease of life in Washington but also in Islamabad as a consequence. There are signs now to suggest that he has been able to sell his case to the Americans and at least for the time being, till elections, US has pledged him their support. There are even signs that US may accept him in uniform for another term!!!. This is a major development in Musharraf-US relations and would be an equally huge disappointment in the opposition and CJ's camp.

We have said earlier also that there are two camps in White House at the moment and both are bitterly divided over what to do with General Musharraf. One group led by Rice and Cheney wants to replace Musharraf with a more cooperative civil government in Islamabad hence want him to take his uniform off forthwith and hold "free and fair" elections. The other camp led by President Bush himself, tends to believe that US interests are vest served with a powerful Musharraf in control of the proceedings in Islamabad and "to hell with democracy" for the time being. The standard US policy in the Muslim world that "democracy is only good if it suits the US interests and can wait if it harms US objectives" has been a dominant factor in creating this thought process over Musharraf as well. It is believed by President Bush that Benazir, who is being seen as the alternate replacement to Musharraf, will not be able to control the military in a controversial war and also would prove to be a weaker leader when dealing with religious hardliners. Nawaz Shareef in any case is considered a religious hardliner by both camps in White house, so the options are only limited to Musharraf and Benazir for all practical purposes. When a direct comparison is done by the Americans between Benazir and General Musharraf , the gender bias of President Bush favors the General. This point of view seems to have now won in White House and the Americans have once agreed to sign up with General Musharraf IN uniform. For General Musharraf, this is a major breakthrough in his attempts to seek a re-election for another term.

But the Americans have a dilemma at their hands too. They want to appear democratic and supporting "free and fair elections". This façade is important for their international image and credibility. So, they have come up with various options for General Musharraf. Like he can seek a re-election in uniform from the next assemblies or it is up to him to decide whether he wants to keep the uniform or not and that has nothing to do with democracy in Pakistan! These statements are music to General Musharraf and an obituary for the opposition which was hoping that US would use its muscle to muzzle the General's camp.

So, if US offers to support General Musharraf on his terms, what would they want in return? We will come to this question later as it demands a serious and detailed assessment. One thing is sure "“ the asking price would be very heavy indeed.

But this battle over fate and future of Musharraf is not over yet. The differences within the US camps remain serious and bitter over what to do with Musharraf and this is not going to go away any time sooner. The battle spills even within the ruling PML(Q). Kabir Ali Wasti is a US asset in ruling PML(Q). Though there are many more, he is a serious point man for the Americans. Their man within the government to say things others would not normally say. He belongs to that camp of the Americans who want Musharraf to take his uniform off and was prompted to make his point. Interestingly, no one within the ruling party dared to say a word to him in rebuttal. Everyone, including the General knows his powerful backers and all the government pretended that they never heard the comment. Similar campaign continues in US media as well.

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Musharraf has lost people's support, says Wasti
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By Our Special Correspondent
LONDON, June 10: A senior vice-president of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League, Kabir Ali Wasti, has claimed in a recent interview to the Guardian that the president (General Pervez Musharraf) has lost the support of the majority of the people of Pakistan, if not all of them.

And Ishaq Khakwani, one of the 77 ministers in the federal cabinet, told the newspaper on Friday that Gen Musharraf had complained (to ruling party members) that things happen, "˜but I have to face the brunt alone.'..

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=nat4.htm&date=20070611 

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US paper advises Bush to stop supporting Musharraf
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By Masood Haider
NEW YORK, June 11: In its lead editorial on Monday, the New York Times advises the Bush administration not to support the Musharraf government as it would hurt the US efforts to defeat extremists. The paper urged Washington to "disentangle America, quickly, from the general's damaging embrace" and support democratic forces in the country...

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top10.htm&date=20070612

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Re-election by new assemblies, hopes US: Musharraf should "˜put aside the uniform'
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By Anwar Iqbal
WASHINGTON, June 12: The US State Department has said that it believes President Musharraf will seek re-election from the parliament formed after the forthcoming elections.

The department's spokesman also hoped that if President Musharraf "continues in political life," he will "put aside the uniform"...

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top1.htm&date=20070613

But when Boucher came to Pakistan and did a closer assessment of capabilities of the opposition parties in the country to serve the US interests in the region, we see a dramatic shift in position in white house which should be very disappointing for the opposition. Boucher started with lectures on US desires for free and fair elections but then it simply degenerated into an endorsement of General Musharraf J. Lets see how it went. It is indeed very interesting. 

First it was fair polls only:

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US pressuring Musharraf to hold fair polls: Boucher
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By Amir Wasim
ISLAMABAD, June 13: Visiting US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher on Wednesday met a cross-section of the Pakistani politicians and assured them that the US was pressing Gen Pervez Musharraf to hold free and fair elections in the country, sources told Dawn.

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top2.htm&date=20070614

Then, uniform became a personal decision of the General!

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"˜Uniform decision is up to Musharraf': US wants transparent polls: Negroponte
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By Ihtasham ul Haque
ISLAMABAD, June 16: The visiting US Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte said on Saturday Washington was interested in the advancement of democracy and fair and free elections in Pakistan, adding it was for President Gen Pervez Musharraf to decide the uniform issue.

"It is up to him (Gen Musharraf) to decide when to take off his uniform but we do want free, fair and transparent elections scheduled for this fall or early next year," he said at a news conference here. He said he had not discussed the uniform issue with the president...

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top1.htm&date=20070617

And, then full endorsement for General Musharraf once again! Both Negroponte and Boucher gave their verdict that US interests would be served best with Musharraf in power and not a civilian PM. The approval came swiftly from the State department.

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Musharraf agent for positive change: US
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By Anwar Iqbal
WASHINGTON, June 16: President Gen Pervez Musharraf is an agent for "positive change" in Pakistan but if there are issues with Islamabad, the US will not hesitate to "speak out" about them "in a respectful manner," says the US State Department.

The department's endorsement for Gen Musharraf's leadership preceded an important meeting between the president and two senior US diplomats "” Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte and Assistant Secretary Richard Boucher "” in Islamabad...

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top2.htm&date=20070617

What the opposition do not realize is that Boucher and Negroponte did not come here to assure free polls. They came here to see and evaluate the capabilities of the political parties to judge who would serve the US interests better. What they have found is disappointing for them. Political parties gave a very poor assessment of themselves. In the assessment of the US diplomats, it is clear that no single party will secure majority in the next elections hence a hung parliament would be created which would be pulled in various directions without any serious sense of direction or ability to take hard decisions which the US would want Islamabad to take. Even in the fairest and freest of polls, this is the expected scenario in the next national assembly. The governments would either not be able to function or would fall rapidly and thus would pave way for military intervention once again with God know which General would take over. When there are so many unknown wildcards in the emerging scenario, then why rock the boat? This is the reason why the overwhelming opinion in the State department is now shifting back towards supporting General Musharraf once again and on re-negotiation of terms of engagement for the future. So now the bottom line in US thinking is: Lets have elections and insist upon "free and fair" for PR purpose, but let Musharraf do what he wants and how he does it as long as he does what suits us".

But one thing is very obvious here. If General Musharraf does get a lease of life with the Americans and gets another chance as General as he desires, he will have to learn from his mistakes and shuffle his entire team of political allies and advisors which have almost gotten him killed on so many occasions. If he insists with his "glass fellows" as Pir Pagara jokingly calls his class fellow advisors, the future for General Musharraf will remain bleak even with this new lease of life and failure of opposition campaign. He has openly criticized the ruling PML(Q) and have accused them of ditching him at every critical time. They are bitterly divided within themselves and have fully exploited and abused the patronage of the General without giving anything back in return. Now when the judicial crisis does not seem to be heading anywhere and he has time to sit back and reflect upon his mistakes, he may be doing some radical surgery within his own ranks too. He will have to if he has to survive else he will remain damned even if he comes out of this present mess. It is amazing what kind of worst possible criminals and corrupt cronies he has for allies and advisors. Really stunning indeed. One of them is being nailed in London these days.

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Discussion on Altaf's role in House of Commons: May 12 carnage in Karachi
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By Our Special Correspondent
LONDON, June 12: A short and sharp discussion ensued in the House of Commons here late Monday night on Pakistan with particular reference to President Gen Pervez Musharraf's dual role as head of state and chief of army staff and Altaf Hussain's role in the May 12 carnage in Karachi.

George Galloway, the maverick MP, moving an adjournment motion gave a detailed account of the events in Pakistan since March 9, when Gen Musharraf sent Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry on forced leave following the filing of a presidential reference against him...

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=nat3.htm&date=20070613

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Imran says Altaf involved in terrorism, money laundering
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By Our Special Correspondent
LONDON, June 13: Imran Khan of Tehrik-i-Insaaf who is visiting the UK these days has levelled four serious charges against Muttahida Qaumi Movement leader Altaf Hussain which include terrorist activities leading to the May 12 events in Karachi, incitement to violence, money laundering and torture. Speaking at a press conference, a guarded Imran Khan said his lawyers have moved the Scotland Yard to immediately conduct investigations of these charges, evidence of which, he said, has been provided to the Yard....

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top9.htm&date=20070614

With CJ's campaign falling apart, opposition is trying once again to regroup but we do not expect any serious dent into armor of General Musharraf with these mediocre and disorganized lot of political opposition. We insist that if General Musharraf will be dammed for good, it will be because of his allies and advisors and not because of his enemies and opposition.

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Opposition to launch anti-Musharraf movement in July
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By Ahmed Hassan
ISLAMABAD, June 14: A meeting of opposition parties, except the PPP, agreed on Thursday to launch a movement next month against the government of Gen Pervez Musharraf. The meeting, convened by the Muttahidda Majlis-i-Amal, was attended by PML-N chairman Raja Zafarul Haq, Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf chairman Imran Khan, PONM leader Mehmood Khan Achakzai, ANP leader Zahid Khan, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Liaquat Baloch...

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=nat1.htm&date=20070615

But he has gathered enough confidence to sound a crisp warning to the media once again. Once the media hype on the CJ issue was reduced, the crisis became manageable for the government. It is obvious that he will be harsh towards media. The venue of the warning is important "“ within his own armed forces constituency from where he draws his strength. 

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Musharraf cautions media against "˜abusing freedom'
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By Baqir Sajjad Syed
ISLAMABAD, June 14: President Gen Pervez Musharraf on Thursday cautioned the media against "˜abusing freedom' and said it should not do anything which could aggravate a crisis. Addressing a joint gathering of the officers of Pakistan Air Force and Pakistan Navy at the Air Headquarters here, President Musharraf said media freedom was undoubtedly important but news organisations should fulfil their responsibility... 

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top4.htm&date=20070615

So what will happen from here or what can happen from here??? Few things are pretty obvious though there are still many wild cards which remain unpredictable. We are assuming that his present allies do not land him in disaster once again till then. 

1. First priority of General Musharraf is to seek a re-election from assembly in uniform. He is now going to focus all his energies to this objectives when he is sure that CJ crisis is weakening, armed forces remain loyal to him and US too have given their tacit approval to his rule. It does not matter whether he takes his vote from these assemblies or from the next. He will only go for it when he is sure of a win.
2. Logically, he should roll few heads and appoint a fresh team of advisors to see through the next few months till re-election. May even sack the government but not the assemblies. 
3. If he decides to take fresh vote of confidence from next assemblies, these present ones can be dissolved for a caretaker government of his choice which would over see the next elections to assure "favorable" parliament .
4. He would initiate contacts with opposition parties especially PPP and even with MMA and PML(N) members for their support in his re-election or in the coming elections. Once Americans gave him the bill of support, many political figures and parties would scramble to seek his blessings including Benazir and even MMA leaders. 

It all seems hunky dory on the surface now but we should not forget one important factor. If Americans have decided to go slow on him, its comes with a huge price. A price, we are sure he will not be able to pay later on. In that case, US would not be too pleased with this "betrayal". With religious extremists and BLA already after his blood, he can ill afford to be on the wrong side of the Americans as well. But he is not thinking about that now. For him, that is a bridge too far. His immediate priority is to seek a re-election in uniform and he is willing to bid any price for that. We will discuss this later in subsequent reports.

Miscellaneous Internal Security and National issues

The issues of religious and sub-nationalist militancy are essentially two foreign sponsored campaigns but with different ideological base. We are monitoring their progress in our reports for the past many years now.

While we have written extensively on Baluchistan and Waziristan, a new axis of Pashtun sub-nationalism is causing us great concern due to its potential to cause unrest in the country. This new axis is largely ignored as yet by the national security managers. In fact, Ministry of Interior is actually promoting it by agreeing to join tribal jirga of both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Before we come to this week's analysis, a quick review of both militancies would be useful.

On June 10^th we had written:

The external security environment around Pakistan and hostile Indian and Afghan support to two insurgencies in Waziristan and Baluchistan have forced the National Security Council to take a harder line on these militancies. We have written earlier also that today Pakistan face militancies on two fronts:

1. The religious militancy.
2. The sub-nationalist militancy "“ BLA, MQM, Pashtun sub-nationalism. 

While the religious militants are active in Waziristan and tribal areas and BLA in Baluchistan, the MQM remains part of the government and is being ignored at the moment by national security planners for political reasons. 

The Pashtun sub-nationalist groups which had been previously allied to former USSR are now fully backed by Afghan and US governments. From tribal areas to Karachi, the Pashtun sub-nationalist groups are now regrouping, uniting and expanding their influence in Pashtuns regions for a long lost dream of greater Pashtunistan "“ another term for succession of NWFP from Pakistan and joining it with Afghanistan.

Though the Pashtun sub-nationalists have not initiated their militant campaign yet on the scale of BLA, seeing the fate of Akbar Bugti and BLA, their desires and intentions are no different than BLA's or MQM's. On a limited scale, the sub-nationalists have already begun their militant campaign and are trying to provoke more clashes between the government and the religious forces in tribal regions. Couple of weeks back, an attack on political agent's house in tribal area was blamed by the sub-nationalists on tribal Taliban but now it has become clear that Taliban were not the perpetrators of that attack. The investigation of the government and the Tribes themselves has proved that perpetrators were "unknown" militants. The Pashtun sub-nationalists have initiated their limited militant campaign against the State and have made the first kill. This is a dangerous development and another axis of violence is raising its head.

While religious groups in the tribal areas are making peace deals with the government, some unknown secretive groups are emerging which are threatening all those who want to make peace with Islamabad. These are actually sub-nationalists in the garb of religious groups who are now fully backed by the Kabul regime to wage a war against Islamabad to create environment for a "free and liberated" tribal region. Massive cash and effort is being injected into these efforts by the Pashtun sub-nationalists. Following news should give a glimpse of this new axis of serious threat in addition to religious militancy and BLA's campaign. Religious groups do not want participation in Pak-Afghan tribal Jirga. It is the sub-nationalist Pashtun groups who are pushing for it. This is dangerous for Pakistan's internal security.

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Militant group warns pro-govt tribal elders
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By Our Correspondent
GHALLANAI, June 13: A new militant group in the Mohmand Agency has vowed to hit back at pro-government tribal elders if they continue to cooperate with the political administration. A bomb went off on Wednesday in the Mian Mandi area where hours earlier a jirga had been held to discuss militants' growing activities in the agency. A note was found at the site of the explosion, warning the tribesmen against supporting the government or holding jirgas against militants or the Taliban....

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top14.htm&date=20070614

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Jirga demands withdrawal of troops from Fata
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Bureau Report
PESHAWAR, June 14: A grand jirga of the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas on Thursday urged the government to withdraw combat troops from Fata, and sought representation of the tribal people in the Pakistan-Afghanistan jirga to be held in Kabul in August. The jirga, comprising 1500 lawyers, Maliks, traders and professionals from seven agencies and six Frontier Regions, was convened to discuss the law and order situation...

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=nat2.htm&date=20070615

**************

Just as last week, in rest of the country, the threat levels have remained stable but slightly on higher side in Baluchistan and NWFP as well as in Karachi. Punjab and Sindh rural is fairly stable. Food and fuel supplies are available and all vital electronic communication systems are operational. Rail and air transport systems are operational too despite few minor accidents or incidents against rail service. All ports operations and shipping are normal too. Life is generally normal in the country and there is no direct threat to any foreign diplomatic or commercial asset. Islamabad remains the safest place in the country followed by Lahore.

BLA is changing its tactics in Baluchistan and is now targeting military personnel in more daring and ruthless terrorist acts. The slaughter of 7 troopers in Quetta was a real wake up call for the government which would add more bloodshed into the campaign in the coming days. After weeks of lying in lower profile, BLA has struck with bloody results though it does not mean that its capability to wage a long protracted campaign has improved. Peshawar and Quetta are being subjected to random acts of terrorism and low intensity blasts which are often by foreign sponsored terrorists or BLA. They are not targeting foreign assets yet. Karachi is more prone to social unrest these days than political violence. But that does not affect the life in that resilient city which goes on despite these hiccups. One should take caution from street crimes in Karachi. It is ok to travel to all major cities.                                                                                                                                                             

http://www.icssa.org/article_detail_parse.php?a_id=1126&rel=1112,1096