Shifting the Mess of Afghan War 

By

Dr. Raja Muhammad Khan

In the pursuance for the practical implementation of its ‘pre-emption theory’, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had warned in the beginning of September 2010, for al-Qaeda’s attack in Europe in the month of November. The main emphasis of the CIA warning was that al-Qaeda is regrouping in the North Waziristan Agency and some other areas of FATA in Pakistan for carrying out simultaneous attacks on London, and some cities of France and Germany. CIA reports also specified the pattern of these attacks, as akin to the Mumbai type terror attacks. Some officials of the Obama administration even believe that, apart from al-Qaeda, Pakistani Taliban and Lashkar-e-Tayyba are also part of this plot.

Provision of these precise and pinpointed forewarnings to its European allies by CIA is a step worth appreciable. This would enable them to ensure their safety by taking necessary safety and security measures. But the basic questions which even a layman would like to ask; how CIA could know this all while these attacks are in the planning stage. Furthermore, if the warning is so real than why not those involved in the planning were nipped in the bird by precisely targeting those, who are planning to attack? Since in the garb of so-called global war on terror, CIA has very accurate and precision weapon system at its disposal, therefore, this would not have been a big deal.

Indeed, the theory of pre-emptive strikes is a U.S strategy of subduing those who disagree from its policies. The theory was applied to attack and invade Iraq in 2003, where the possession of the Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) was made as an excuse at the time of attack, without even UN mandate. However, the later revelations after killing over a million Iraqi people were quite contrary as known to the globe. A similar strategy was applied for Afghanistan for attacking and keeping it under occupation for an indefinite period.

In order to know about the reality of this latest CIA’s warning of attacks on European cities by al-Qaeda elements and concentration of its leadership in North Waziristan, one has to understand the background of US demands from Pakistan over last few years. Indeed, perceiving a threat to the security of its forces in the neighbouring Afghanistan, U.S has been emphasizing Pakistan to undertake a military operation in North Waziristan Agency quite frequently. This demand gained momentum after Pak Army undertook two major military operations in Malakand (Swat) Agency and South Waziristan Agency. Both these operations met unprecedented success in the entire history of the so-called global war on terror.  Since these operations were conducted for few weeks and the terrorists infested areas were cleared off methodically, therefore, were much appreciated at the global level.

After the success of these two operations and the international appreciations, people of US and Europe started questioning the achievements of US and NATO forces, occupying Afghanistan since last over nine years. In order to divert the attention of its people, US started accusing that terrorists from FATA region of Pakistan are intruding into Afghanistan, for fighting the ISAF troops. However, while levelling these accusations, US perhaps forgotten the fact that on the Afghan side of the Durand Line (Pak-Afghan), there is heavy deployment of ISAF and Afghan National Army. Why did that force fail to stop the intrusion or why did Taliban and other terrorists were not arrested or killed, once they were entering into the Afghan side of the border?

On the repeated persistence, Pakistan informed its ally, the United States, that, operation in the NWA would only be launched once Government and security forces of Pakistan consider its inevitability. For such an operation, decision would be taken by Pakistan, rather getting a dictation from by another country. Besides, Pakistan maintained that military operations are necessitated, once there is an active resistance from the militants or there is an armed rebellion, challenging the writ of the Government. In NWA, generally there is a prevalence of peace since the 2006, military operations. People are not challenging the Government’s writ. Therefore, Pakistan Army has advised the Government not to launch a military operation. Indeed, launching such an operation would rather be counterproductive. Such a military operation, if launched, would cause collateral damages and invite reaction against the Government. Indeed, over the period of time, the people of NWA have learnt to live with peace while accepting the authority of the Government of Pakistan; therefore, killing of peaceful people is not the mandate of Pak Army.

US failure to compel Pakistan to launch military operations in NWA, in the last two years finally led it to prepare a new plot of attacks in European cities by militants from this agency.  It is to be noted that during his two days official visit to Pakistan, Mr Leon Panetta, the CIA chief had separate meetings with the President, Prime Minister and the Army Chief. His main emphasizes were on the preventive measure to stop the likely attacks on European cities, originating from the North Waziristan. In this regards, the CIA Chief, was defending the overwhelming increase in the drone attacks on the North Waziristan Agency, which killed hundreds of the innocent people. It is worth mentioning that, out of the total 175 attacks carried out by CIA operated drones since 2004, over 25 drone attacks were undertaken in September alone. Except a few foreign militants, CIA itself accepts that most of the drone attacks caused the collateral damages. So far over 1700 innocent people have been killed in these drone attacks alone since their start in 2004.     

It is unclear as yet as to who really sponsor and heads al-Qaeda. However, this is for sure that, Osama Bin Laden, Mullah Omer and Al-Zahwahari can now be considered as imaginary characters, whose messages are made public before any action by U.S or NATO forces in Afghanistan or once there is a need of public support to US or European leadership for convincing their people to remain quite. Previously these were also used for calling a wrath on Iraqi people. It is surprising to note that, any action of al-Qaeda is known to CIA in advance. For example, the May 1, 2010, car bomb plot by a U.S national of Pakistan descent, Faisal Shahzad; convicted and given life imprisonment by US Court on October 5, 2010, was known to CIA much earlier, as recently disclosed by Gary Leupp, an analyst of Iraqi and Afghan wars in one of his article entitled, “Threatening Pakistan,” published in the Counterpunch magazine.

Since the alleged plot was to be implemented in a very sensitive city of US, NY Times Square, and the executer was in the U.S, therefore, there was no reason to wait till the bomb could have been exploded, causing deaths of many US citizens. Thanks God that, the bomb did not explode. Otherwise, as recently revealed by Bob Woodward, in his book, entitled, “Obama’s Wars,” US would have hit 150 terrorists’ heavens inside Pakistan. CIA would be familiar with them better, where these terrorists heavens are really situated inside Pakistan, as Pakistani peoples, the Government and its intelligence agency are unaware of such 150 terrorist’s heavens.

Since Pakistani authorities had put their feet down on the NWA military operation, therefore, ISAF helicopters thrice intruded into Pakistani territory and finally fired missiles on the Pakistani Post at Kurrum Agency, resultantly, killed three soldiers of the Frontier Corps. This is not the first time that such a violation of the Pakistan’s aerial space or ground territory has been done by U.S or NATO forces, occupying Afghanistan, since last almost nine years. In June 2008, 11 Pakistani troops were killed as a result of US air strike on a Pakistani border post along Pak-Afghan border. Pakistan suspended the logistic support of ISAF after the attacks.

Later through a joint investigation, it was proved that the fault lies with the ISAF for the violation of Pakistani border and killing the soldiers. Thereafter, US rendered a formal apology from Pakistani authorities and families of those who embraced shaahdat. After the formal apology, Pakistan has resumed the supply of oil and other logistic support to ISAF in Afghanistan. Pakistan has taken a principal stand this time by forcing the US to at least apologize. For the maintenance of national interest, we should obtained assurances from US and NATO to avoid such like acts in future. Furthermore, U.S and NATO cannot be allowed to take the mess of Afghan war into Pakistani territory.