Political eye-opener tinged with mind-boggling
Let me make it absolutely transparent dispelling any shadow of doubts that neither I am with Nawaz nor with Zardari and not even with Musharraf for that matter though during hisn time I used to call him as Bhaijan which had been flashed in press and to me he is the best since we both are born in 1943 and belong to Urdu speaking lot whereas Imran is my favorite but here at this point of time whatever I pen will be based on pure facts and facts alone and thus please do not construe it otherwise or give it any other color than what is very sincerely intended by me.
Unofficial results of bye elections which will be official if not today then by tomorrow very clearly and loudly tell us who is who and though many may not like the results but yet facts simply cannot and should not be denied either unless someone is lunatic who does not believe in ground realities and wants to continue living in fool’s paradise. Saying is something different while seeing is also something different and therefore call of the time is to realize and reckon hard ground realities. There were some seats fallen vacant at three places namely National Assembly, Punjab Assembly and Sindh Assembly and therefore bye elections had to be held to fill up the vacuum and that is why yesterday Tues day 4th December, 2012 bye-elections were held in the respective constituencies to vote for the new faces to be inducted as legislative members of the assembly they contested for. In totality there were 9 vacant seats which were split as i.e. 2 for National Assembly, 6 for Punjab Assembly and 1 for Sindh Assembly.
The two seats vacant in NA were NA -107 in Gujrat and NA- 162 Sahiwal and there had been quite pitched battle between the contestants and one way or the other the present government belonging to Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) had to face the defeat which must be dying shock for PPP but yet Pakistan Muslim League (N) though in opposition in NA has successfully grabbed not one alone but both seats. Malik Hanif Awan fielded by PML (N) obtained 106,658 votes whereas his opponent named Rehan Naseer fielded jointly by PPP and PML (Q) secured 76,041 votes. This is not a simple win as one may look it on the face of it but instead there is a deep intrinsic message which ought to be read and understood and not just ignored unless and until one is his own enemy. PPP being the ruling party had quite obviously more logistics and facilities at its disposal to be used in this bye election which was not the case so far as PML (N) is concerned so it was greatly felt amongst the general public that come what may PPP candidate will win the race but it did not happen alike. On the top of it PPP candidate was a joint candidate where PPP had joined hands with PML (Q) when fielded Rehan so who could dispute and under what grounds that he will taste defeat is a baffling question to be honest? Had Rehan been fielded alone by either PPP or PML (Q) the result had been still the more shocking than what we find now. The difference between 106,658 and 76,041 is too wide and speaks aloud about the hard ground realities emerging out in constituency of NA-107. Do not forget that Chief of PML (Q) Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain who is one of the veteran politicians of the country is very much resident of same place Gujart so why and how his candidate is defeated by a margin of just 30,617 votes is a question which you and you alone can answer as it is beyond my capacity in any case?
NA- 162 Sahiwal candidate Mohammad Zahid Iqbal belonging to PML (N) tried his luck against Rai Hassan Nawaz, an independent candidate who had backing of Imarn Khan’s Pakistan Tehreeke Insaf (PTI) and the results show that Zahid bagged 75,970 votes whereas Rai received 65,755 votes while the third contestant fielded jointly by PPP and PML (Q) got third position. This proves that one may like or not PML (N) has clearly given an open message that it has very strong say otherwise it could not obtain both the seats at NA level. Secondly it also proves that PTI which is infancy stage in any case as compared to PPP or PML (N) individually or collectively has gained some ground in the political arena since the independent fellow it supported either directly or indirectly lost by just 20,215 votes whereas in other constituency namely NA-107 the difference of success between the two candidates stands out at 30,617.
Coming to Punjab Assembly it is quite obvious that PML (N) has very strong base which it can very rightly boast of and it is not that easy to defeat its candidates in PA and therefore it has swept away in the constituencies as detailed herein. PP-26 Jehlum there was head on contest between the two independent candidates Khadim Hussain and Raja Mohammad Ashraf where as many as 39,154 people voted for him while 19,044 voters favored Raja who quite naturally was defeated. So quite naturally at the initial stage the battle was fought by two independents with no reference to any political party but as the good luck had it, Khadim after securing his PA-26 seat announced to join PML (N). PP-92 Gujranwala is won by Nawaz Chohan of PML (N) and not by Lala Asadullah who belonged to PPP as 36,457 chose Nawaz while 16,492 voiced for Lala so it is 1st seat which is directly won by PML (N) in PP. In PP- 122 Sialkot II, PML (N) nominated Chaudhry Mohmmad Akram who faced Raja Amir Khan fielded collectively by PPP and PML (Q) but tough luck results show that Chauhdry has won which 2nd seat is directly won by PML (N). There was another battle in the same area as Sialkot’s IX which is PP-129 witnessed that here the nominee of PML (N) Chaudhry Mohsin Ashraf Baryar faced none but Chaudhry Ansar Iqbal Baryar backed by PPP and PML (Q) hoping that together they can beat PML (N) which is a single party in any case but the scale tilted towards Monsin Baryar and not Ansar Baryar. When it comes to PP-133 Narowal we find that here PML (Q) win the seat as Umar Sharif found 29,308 in his favor while his opponent contesting all by himself without any support from any political party fetched 23,044 votes which means the independent had to go to walls. In case of the contest against PP-226 Kassowal it be noted that here the male defeated as Hanif Jutt on PML (N) bagged 42,294 votes whereas Mrs. Iqbal representing PML (Q) had run short by 7,000 votes. I wish she had succeeded as she was a lady who is given more respect than man but it is not so in politics.
As regards Sindh, which is the real base for PPP for many long years in this bye election has again proved that its popularity has not been lost despite the fact that a few did defect from it but yet such like switching over to the other side of the fence could not prove to so detrimental to the cause of the party otherwise its nominee Sarfraz Shah has not triumphed over Abrar Shah when the two faced each other on PS-21 seat falling in Nawshero Feroz. Numerically speaking there is no comparison between the two contestants since Sarfraz figure is 40,520 whereas it is just 2,034 so far as Abrar is concerned who was fielded by Awami National Party (ANP) which is much older political party than PPP but yesterday it simply could not even stir PPP.
After going through these results it can be said with full confidence and conviction that PPP will get some tough time in the next election and I have my very serious doubts if it will boast of sweeping victory because not only its old opponent PML (N) will give it tough time but also PTI will also get some seats for sure so PPP wizards and brains must take cognizance of the situation and take up some concrete and concentrated steps to face the onslaught but if it ignores the ground realities then its success in next election will be very much doubtful. No denying the fact since Zardari not chairs PPP but is President of the country as well so it is quite but natural that he would love to continue occupying the throne and thus it demands of him to very critically analyze the situation to mould it in his favor. The dent which PML (N) has inflicted on PPP in this bye election must be taken as symbolic of what possibly it could be in future. There is still some time for Zardari and PPP to be very cautious and be on guard.
I am done and will just wait to see as to logistics is adopted by Zardari and his inner circle comrades not to lose their faces in next elections which are very much knocking at the door in any case. Please put me back on track if I am off the track.
Iqbal Hadi Zaidi / Kuwait /
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