The US scripted
endgame has gone awry
Asif Haroon Raja
After occupation of Afghanistan in November 2001 by US led
western forces and Afghan Northern Alliance force, the US inspired constitution
and democracy was pushed down the gullets of Afghans. Ground was prepared for
elections and the US spent huge amounts in winning over the loyalties of
warlords and to make the elections successful. The first presidential election
was held in 2004 which elected Hamid Karzai. Soon after, general elections were
held leading to formation of Northern Alliance heavy government. Both elections
were boycotted by the Taliban and great majority of Pashtuns. By the time next
elections were due in 2009 Karzai had become unpopular and his government got roiled
in corruption and inefficiency. ANA and Police trained by US and UK trainers
were rated as poor. The third round of elections will take place in April 2014
in which Karzai having availed two terms will not constitutionally eligible to
contest. New faces will be contesting the next elections. One of the
prospective candidates for President’s seat is Karzai’s brother Qayum for which
Karzai is lobbying hard.
Since last elections, the security
situation in Afghanistan has undergone a sea change. Events have unfolded in
favor of Taliban and in disfavor of occupation forces and ruling Afghan regime.
Mullah Omar has urged the Afghans to boycott the elections and to disown the
puppet government installed by Washington. He is in a position to say so since
Taliban have achieved superiority of strategic orientation over US-NATO-ANA
forces. Besides gaining full control over eastern and southern Afghanistan,
which constitute over 60% of Afghan territory, the Taliban are in a imposing
position to strike targets in any part of the country including most fortified
Kabul. The capital city has been successfully struck several times by Haqqani
network since September 2011. So is the case with targets in northern
Afghanistan, supposedly the stronghold of non-Pashtun Afghans. The Taliban are
likely to disrupt coming elections using violent means. Majority of Pashtuns
having suffered the most at the hands of NATO and ANSF support the
Taliban.
There appears to be some confusion with regard to the ethnic
demography of Afghans. According to available
reports, Pashtuns are in majority with 42% population and the rest divided
between various non-Pashtun ethnic tribes in the centre, west and north of
Afghanistan. These figures are misleading since no census has taken place since
long. The non-Pashtuns Afghans being relatively more educated and liberal in
outlook, they get themselves registered. On the contrary, Afghan Pashtuns are
mostly illiterate and conservative and don’t get registered. Hence, the
official demography may not be accurate particularly because no census has
taken place since very long. Pashtuns may not be less than 51% if not more.
Even if 35% Pashtuns raise their hands in favor of Taliban, this figure is good
enough to make 2014 elections controversial and invalid.
Relations between Afghan and the US
governments are far from friendly. Wall of distrust has come up because of
Karzai’s filibustering and abrasiveness. After sabotaging Doha peace process in
June this year, he is now in two minds whether to sign or not to sign Bilateral
Security Agreement (BSA) with USA, which would authorize US-NATO to leave
behind a residue force and to retain some military bases in Afghanistan after
2014 and till 2024. The sticking points are grant of immunity from prosecution
by Afghan courts to foreign troops and full liberty of action to conduct
military operation against militants. In other words, NATO forces would be at
liberty to carryout extra judicial killings and torture as heretofore. Although
John Kerry’s recent visit to Kabul has made Karzai accommodative, yet he wants
the deal to be approved by Loya Jirga which he plans to call in third week of
November. If approved, the BSA will then be ratified by Afghan Parliament. The
US leadership is getting impatient and has sounded October 31 as the cut out
date to ink the agreement, failing which it may opt for ‘zero option’ as in
case of Iraq. The Taliban Shura has strongly opposed BSA and will reject it
even if Loya Jirga approves it.
The Afghan-US Strategic Partnership
signed in Kabul in May 2012 was Okayed by Loya Jirga but had not approved
immunity to foreign troops. It was also ruled that ISAF would not undertake
unilateral military action and that ANA would lead all operations. This time
because of Taliban’s resurgence and weakened position of both ISAF and Kabul
Government; possibility of Loya Jirga approving immunity to foreign troops is
dim. Reportedly, Karzai is contemplating calling a selective Jirga and inviting
only those who will endorse the BSA. About 3000 elders, politicians and clerics
are expected to attend. Karzai is banking heavily upon Mullah Ghani Baradar who
has recently been released by Pakistan on his insistence to make some Taliban
leaders agree to attend the Jirga. Notwithstanding that he was number 2 of
Mullah Omar, but it will not be possible for him to affect any change in
hard-held policy decisions of Shura except for trying to bridge differences
between the Taliban and Karzai so as to arrive at a home-grown political
settlement without outside interference. He could be a suitable choice to head
Afghan High Peace Council since neither Burhanuddin Rabbani was acceptable to
Taliban nor is his son Salahuddin.
Karzai, whose writ doesn’t go
beyond his palace in Kabul, is vainly trying to rouse Afghan nationalism by
acting tough against USA and Pakistan. His ploys to shed away the label of
American lackey and to present himself as a savior and an honorable Pashtun are
not selling. The Pashtuns have not forgotten that he had sold his soul to the
Americans to acquire power and how he mercilessly allowed the destruction of
Afghanistan and presided over the oppression of the Pashtuns living on both
sides of the Durand Line.
It was unwise on part of Nawaz
Sharif to give a helping hand to the untrustworthy drowning man trying to
clutch at the last straw. He has become a liability for the US as well as
Afghans and is in no position to give anything in return for the favors
extended to him. while 36 Taliban prisoners have been set free by Pakistan on
his request, Pakistan has not been able to get back any of the absconding
terrorists like Maulana Fazlullah in Kunar and Faqir Muhammad in Kabul,
enjoying the hospitality of their hosts. Karzai insolently acknowledged their
presence in Afghanistan. He has been constantly talking ill of Pak Army and ISI
and alleging without furnishing any proof that the duo is destabilizing
Afghanistan. There have been several incidents of burning of Pakistan flag in
Afghanistan but Karzai never apologized. On the contrary, when a single
incident of burning of Iranian flag occurred in his country he promptly
extended his apologies. He brazenly says that the goodwill and support rendered
by Pakistan Establishment in 1980s to Afghans was to gain strategic depth and
to make Afghanistan Pakistan’s 5th province. He alleges that Pak
military is forcing Afghans to recognize Durand line as international border.
Although the US claimed that the left
behind force was meant to impart training to ANA, build up its capacity, render
technical advice and logistic support, and to hunt left over al-Qaeda operators
numbering 75 or so, however, the initial figure of 25-30,000 residual force
negated the spelt out scope. The US hidden motive was exposed when it started
haggling with Kabul over immunity issue and liberty of action. It couldn’t
justify the stated strength and retention of nine military bases for chasing 75
Al-Qaeda elements. The strength has now been scaled down to 5-10,000 owing to
mounting differences between two sides and danger of BSA getting jeopardized.
Likely bases for the reduced force are Kabul and Bagram in the centre,
Mazar-e-Sharif in north and possibly Herat or Shindad in the west.
It will however be incorrect to conclude
that reduction in size of residual force would reduce its combat potential.
Combat strength is measured in terms of firepower and not the bayonet strength.
The latter counts when the strategy is based on boots on ground. The ISAF
abandoned boots on ground strategy in 2009 and relies heavily on airpower.
After 2014, the stay behind force would remain confined to military bases and
assist ANA by providing training, technical guidance, intelligence and
firepower support.
The bunker based residual force will be of
little use to the not-so-disciplined ANA with high attrition rate, or for the
harried Afghan government struggling to keep the Taliban at bay. It can at best
provide air support to ANA to delay the fall of Kabul or any of the military
bases. Or to arrange safe landing of the returning main force in case of a
rethink in Washington in the wake of effective encirclement of Kabul and
eminent fall of northern Afghanistan. The ANA will remain battle worthy as long
as military aid to the tune of $4.1 billion flows in annually. The moment this
aid is stopped or radically reduced, it would hasten the disintegration of ANA
the way the national army trained by Red Army had fragmented in 1993.
The US not only desire pro-US regime in
Kabul to cater for its regional interests but also wants to avoid repetition of
horrendous fallout of its hasty exit in 1989. It would like to give some
respectability to its misadventure which has robbed it of its prestige, honor
and glory. With only 14 months left for the pullout of ISAF, the obtaining
operational environment in Afghanistan are gloomy and do not auger well for
smooth transition. The endgame scripted by the US and its strategic allies has
gone awry. Prophecy of doomsayers that 2014 and beyond would prove more bloody
appears to be turning into a reality. The three major stakeholders – the
Taliban, Kabul government and the US – are circling in respective orbits. All
three distrust each other. In-house attacks in Afghanistan are not subsiding
and so are cases of suicides by US-NATO soldiers. The spoilers on the sidelines
with vested interests are sprinkling oil to keep the pot of terrorism and
distrust boiling. Clash of interests has thickened the clouds of uncertainty
and insecurity. Pakistan is the only country which sincerely desires peace
since it is the most affected country and its peace is linked with stability in
Afghanistan.
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