America and its allies are back again in the Middle East. The truth is that they never left. But it started appearing for some time that America is planning a leave from the area. But what appears almost always proves to be an illusion. The simple fact is that America cannot afford to lose its hegemony over the world, and for the hegemony to continue, it cannot afford to leave the Islamic World unattended, particularly the Middle East. The stakes are too high for the West to let the World of Islam to pursue its own independent course. They are too many, too idealistic, too rich and too restive for West to feel safe and secure. Ethnically, they may be counted as the second largest majority of the world after Christians, but with a big percentage of Christians not believing and practicing the basic tenets of their religion, Muslims are easily the biggest ideological block of the world. In a world where religious values are considered a big threat to the interests of the market-controlled economic and political order, such a monolithic ideological block poses the “imminent threat”. They will continue to be a hurdle in the march of an economy based on the commercialization, glorification and globalization of human susceptibilities, many of which are expressly prohibited in Islam. In a country-wise break-up, they form about 30 per cent of the sovereign countries of the world, and are a significant minority in at least half of the rest. To the satisfaction of West, none of Muslim countries is big enough to impose its will merely on the basis of the size of its populace the way China and India can do. To their greater satisfaction again, none of the Muslim states is in a position to challenge their technological supremacy.   

 

But what makes the World of Islam special apart from its ideological positioning, is its wealth. West knows that when wealth comes, technology and military might too do not remain beyond reach; and strategic partnerships can soon turn the tilt. If the wealth of Islamic World is to be taken advantage of, it is necessary to keep it under control. 

 

If we study the global oil reserves, we find that the Islamic World, including Middle East, has an unchallenged monopoly. If, either due to technological backwardness, or due to Western sanctions, they have not been able to tap their energy resources to the full till now, this may ultimately prove to be advantageous for them, as their reserves can last longer. Here is the list of the top countries in terms of their oil reserves:

 

 

Country Proven reserves

(bbl) Date

  Venezuela

297,600,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Saudi Arabia

267,900,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Canada

173,100,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Iran

154,600,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Iraq

141,400,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Kuwait

104,000,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  United Arab Emirates

97,800,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Russia

80,000,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Libya

48,010,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Nigeria

37,200,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Kazakhstan

30,000,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Qatar

25,380,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  United States

20,680,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  China

17,300,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Brazil

13,150,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Algeria

12,200,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Angola

10,470,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Mexico

10,260,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Ecuador

8,240,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Azerbaijan

7,000,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Oman

5,500,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  India

5,476,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Norway

5,366,000,000 1 January 2010 est.

  Egypt

4,400,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Vietnam

4,400,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Indonesia

4,030,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Malaysia

4,000,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  South Sudan

3,750,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  United Kingdom

3,122,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Yemen

3,000,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Argentina

2,805,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Syria

2,500,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Uganda

2,500,000,000 1 January 2010 est.

  Colombia

2,200,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Gabon

2,000,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Republic of the Congo

1,600,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Chad

1,500,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Australia

1,433,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Sudan

1,250,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Brunei

1,100,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Equatorial Guinea

1,100,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Denmark

805,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Trinidad and Tobago

728,300,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Ghana

660,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Turkmenistan

600,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Romania

600,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Uzbekistan

594,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Peru

579,200,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Italy

521,300,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Thailand

453,300,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Tunisia

425,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Ukraine

395,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Netherlands

352,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Turkey

270,400,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Germany

254,200,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Pakistan

247,500,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Bolivia

209,800,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Cameroon

200,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Belarus

198,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Democratic Republic of the Congo

180,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Albania

172,400,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Poland

156,500,000 1 January 2010 est.

  Papua New Guinea

154,300,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Spain

150,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Chile

150,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Philippines

138,500,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Bahrain

124,600,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Cuba

124,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Côte d'Ivoire

100,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  France

85,180,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Austria

85,000,000 1 January 2012 est.

  Guatemala

83,070,000 1 January 2013 est.

  New Zealand

81,400,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Serbia

77,500,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Suriname

76,800,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Croatia

71,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Burma

50,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Japan

44,120,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Kyrgyzstan

40,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Georgia

35,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Bangladesh

28,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Hungary

27,320,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Mauritania

20,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Bulgaria

15,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  South Africa

15,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Czech Republic

15,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Tajikistan

12,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Lithuania

12,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Israel

11,500,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Greece

10,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Slovakia

9,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Benin

8,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Belize

6,700,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Taiwan

2,380,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Barbados

2,260,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Jordan

1,000,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Morocco

680,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Ethiopia

430,000 1 January 2013 est.

  Moldova

7,330 1 January 2013 est.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

 

According to the table, 7 out of top 10, 9 out of 16 and 19 out of 30 are Muslim majority countries. Not only Middle East countries, African Muslim countries, Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey and Kazakhstan are also having big reserves. 

 

According to the same report, “Since a system of country production quotas was introduced in the 1980s, partly based on reserves levels, there have been dramatic increases in reported reserves among OPEC producers. In 1983, Kuwait increased its proven reserves from 67 Gbbl (10.7×109 m3) to 92 Gbbl (14.6×109 m3). In 1985–86, the UAE almost tripled its reserves from 33 Gbbl (5.2×109 m3) to 97 Gbbl (15.4×109 m3). Saudi Arabia raised its reported reserve number in 1988 by 50%. In 2001–02, Iran raised its proven reserves by some 30% to 130 Gbbl (21×109 m3), which advanced it to second place in reserves and ahead of Iraq.”

 

Following is the OPEC share of oil reserves:

 

 

 

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/330.htm

 

The report says:

“According to current estimates, more than 81% of the world's proven oil reserves are located in OPEC Member Countries, with the bulk of OPEC oil reserves in the Middle East, amounting to 66% of the OPEC total. OPEC Member Countries have made significant additions to their oil reserves in recent years, for example, by adopting best practices in the industry, realizing intensive explorations and enhancing recoveries. As a result, OPEC's proven oil reserves currently stand at 1,200.83 billion barrels.”

 

If the total reserves of Muslim countries are counted, they will amount to around three fourth of the world reserves. This is obviously a difficult situation for West. They are obviously concerned about any interruptions in the oil supply from Middle East. Echoing these concerns, Laura El-Katiri, a research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and a teaching fellow in the department of financial and management studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, says:

“Worryingly, these optimistic forecasts flow into investment decisions made by alternative energy producers. The decisions over where and whether to invest by oil market heavyweight Saudi Arabia, and also medium-sized producers such as Kuwait and the UAE, are important drivers of tomorrow’s oil prices. These countries are already facing uncertainty from within their own region; after all, we don’t yet know how much more oil we can expect to be exported from Libya, Iran or Iraq.

Assuming we are getting things wrong, we may see higher oil prices – not just tomorrow but for the weeks and years afterwards. This means higher energy prices in the UK, in Europe and in other Western consumer markets leading to higher living costs, higher rates of inflation, and a potential drain on our economy. By then, even a surge in new European gas supplies will not help us.”

http://www.theguardian.com/big-energy-debate/2014/sep/05/conflict-middle-east-energy-security-putin

 

Apart from the oil reserves, there are also reports of reserves of minerals in the Middle Eastern countries. The Oil reserves means that not only the world will remain dependent on the Islamic World for quite some time, the wealth they earn out of the oil exports will be spent somewhere. The West knows that with their economy depending both on manufactured goods and services of various kinds, the inhabitants of the Islamic World are the most potent consumers of these goods and services. Keeping a political hold on the region is therefore imperative. 

 

The major area of concern for the West is that the religiosity in Islamic countries has grown with their wealth particularly in last four decades; they wanted the opposite. They know it pretty well that the love for West is on the decline, and Muslims all over the world are harbouring a growing suspicion about the West. This is their greatest dilemma. On the one hand, they want a strong grip on these lands, directly or indirectly through their puppet politicians; on the other, they feel concerned about the growing restiveness among Muslims, especially in terms of their thinking about West. But for the time being, they seem to have adopted the strategy of using the stick in hope of more favourable times. The rise of China and Russia is also a cause of worry for them. If Muslims make a strategic tilt towards East, it will be curtains for them. China, Russia and India, along with some countries like Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia and Turkey, can provide them the goods and services; if they are good enough, they can also get the technology. Everything is freely available in the world market, and with their petrodollars, they can buy anything they want. 

 

With the wars against Afghanistan and Iraq, West thought that they have taught a lesson to the enemies. They hoped that by fomenting rebellion in Syria, they can secure this country as well. Finally, they can take on Iran. But the things in last two years have not gone their way. Iraq, which the US “liberated” from the clutches of Saddam Hussein, turned closer to Iran. Bashar-al Assad succeeded in defeating the West-supported rebellion. Russia, Iran and China appeared to be on the way of developing a strategic partnership. This partnership in fact dissuaded America from attacking Syria a year back. The strategy was therefore changed. 

 

ISIS soon emerged, taking huge area of Iraq and Syria within weeks. This could not have been possible without an outside support. America presented its rise as a symbol of rebellion against the Iraqi government under Maliki, which they claimed, was favouring Shia population. The pressure was heightened on the Iraqi politicians to replace Maliki with a more pro-American leader. Till this was not achieved, there was no hint of an American onslaught against ISIS. As soon as Mailiki was relieved, the Shia-Sunni rivalry ceased. Now, time was right to use ISIS to enter Iraq so that the region firmly remained in the pro-West and pro-Israel hands.  It would then be easy to topple Assad or at least keep him in check. With Russia entrenched in Ukraine, it will also find it hard to stare at the US. Hong Kong can always be used to keep pressure on China. Soon, from an anti-Shia organization, ISIS was turned into a big threat for the entire mankind. The old weapon of videos was used to build up the hysteria. And America is back pounding targets in Islamic countries. Oil refineries and infrastructures are being destroyed in the name of destroying the ISIS. What an irony that the entire coalition under America now is an all Sunni coalition. 

 

The game of hegemony is on. Let’s see where it will take the world to. But West must rest assured that everything on the earth will not happen to their liking.