March 30th, 2008 by Cy

Once the euphoria over the election and transition of power wears off, a hungry media will put the government under the microscope. That is when the new prime minister's mettle will be tested.

Thirty-three days after February's national elections, the PPP announced its candidate for prime minister. As Mr Gilani settles into the premiership, enough questions linger from the drawn out nomination process to put in doubt the prime minister's capacity to govern effectively.

For now, the prime minister will enjoy a honeymoon period. The news media are so eager to close the chapter on the last eight years that they will focus on the feel good factor of a return to raucous, civilian politicking. Indeed, Gilani's first speech from the floor of the house witnessed the press gallery applauding the prime minister's order to release the detained judges.

This will not last. The day after Gilani's election a channel broadcast celebratory images of the prime minister, but ended on a warning note: "An eye on the new prime minister." Once the euphoria over elections and transition of power wears off, a hungry media will put the government under the microscope. That is when the new prime minister's mettle will be tested. And that is when we will learn the answer to whether Gilani has been selected by Asif Zardari to be a strong prime minister or a Zardari-loyalist. Answering the question right now is difficult because Prime Minister Gilani has the potential to be either. As speaker of the National Assembly in the mid-1990s Gilani is known to have defied Benazir Bhutto by resisting her demands to use strong-arm tactics against the opposition. As a political prisoner under Gen Musharraf, the prime minister suffered in Adiala Jail rather than split from the PPP. A telling vignette from the 1980s encapsulates the man. According to a profile on the BBC South Asia website, Gilani came to Karachi to meet Benazir Bhutto in a bid to join the PPP. At the time Gen Zia was alive and the PPP was far from the corridors of power. When a sceptical Bhutto wondered aloud about what she had to offer Gilani, he replied, "There are three types of people in this world: lovers of honour, of wisdom and of wealth. I am of the first type, and that is all I want." Placing honour above wisdom may be cavilled with, but the point is clear: Gilani himself sets the limits of what he will and will not do.

On the other hand, Gilani's political base in Multan is decidedly weaker than Makhdoom Amin Fahim's in Hala and Shah Mehmood Qureshi's in Multan. Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar, the fourth prime ministerial hopeful, is believed to be have been undone by his public lobbying for the job. These facts along with Gilani's unflinching loyalty to the PPP build a case for his becoming a prime minister who is dictated to from Zardari House.

There is a further unknown undermining Gilani: the speculation that Zardari will make his way into the house. There is a less obvious compulsion than a simple power grab for Zardari to do so. The chairman of the PPP, Bilawal Zardari, will not be eligible to become prime minister for another 16 years. A non-Bhutto as prime minister for five years with another 11 years of non-Bhutto leadership of the house or the opposition has the potential to create an intolerable rival power bloc inside the party. Bilawal, by virtue of the Bhutto legacy and the nature of mass politics in Pakistan, will always be at or near the top of the power pyramid in the PPP. However, the question is whether Asif Zardari will allow a rival power base to emerge while his son comes of age.

The possibility of the formation of a rival power bloc is not unrealistic. The sidelining of Makhdoom Amin Fahim was such a long, botched affair because of the possibility of a spurned Fahim splitting the party. Zardari spent long hours sounding out PPP members to determine whether Fahim would be able to capitalise on party dissent. The belated support of the MQM is a coup that may ease governance in Sindh, but it also has the benefit of ensuring that any 'forward bloc' led by Fahim in Sindh would be ineffective.

Ultimately, the fate of Gilani will determine the path that the PPP will take at this crossroads. Thus far in his selection of a prime minister, chief minister of Sindh and speaker of the National Assembly, Zardari has eschewed treating the party as a 'family heirloom'. Given the challenges of governance and coalition maintenance ahead, this is undoubtedly wise. Going forward, however, Zardari will be faced with a choice: strengthen the party even if it means power is diffused within it or tighten his control of the party with the attendant risk of factionalism emerging.

The former is good for the country. Myopia and personal interest may result in the latter. For now, the political honeymoon and the 'post-politics' environment have allowed Zardari to have it both ways. But as events overtake the new government, he may not have that luxury for long.