Surging Chaos in Yemen
(Part 2)
Asif Haroon Raja
Conflict between the Houthis under Abdul
Malik al-Houthi and the elected government of Abd-Rabbuh Mansour al-Hadi, now
in exile, is seen as part of a regional power struggle between Shia-ruled Iran
and Sunni-ruled Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which shares a long porous
border with Yemen. The sectarian problem certainly looms in the background somewhere but is
not the main factor. The ongoing war in Yemen is in essence a political
struggle and not a sectarian tussle. Tribalism remains the sole driver of
politics in Yemen. Former President Ali Abdullah Saleh is a Zaidi. Having ruled
Yemen for 33 years, he still didn’t reconcile to his peaceful ouster and
desires his son Ahmad to become the president. He and part of Yemeni Army and
police loyal to him got aligned with Houthis to gain power. The power struggle
has been given the color of sectarianism, which has been played up in the western
media and insensitively espoused by our media and self-styled intellectuals. This
is of course not to say that the Houthis are not being supported by Iran.
Although
in the current timeframe there is no direct clash between KSA and Iran, possibility
of Houthi ruled Yemen joining Iran-Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah axis in the future
cannot be ruled out. If so, when seen in the backdrop of warmed up relations
between Iran and the west, possibility of sectarian war between the Iran led
nexus backed by Russia and KSA led Arab coalition tacitly supported by the US
and Israel may turn into a horrific reality.
King
Salman is rightly worried about the building scenario in immediate
neighborhood. He knows that Yemen under Houthis backed by Iran may energize
already restive Shias in Al-Qatf (less than 3% Sunnis only) and Al-Ahasa
housing world largest oilfields in its eastern province together with some
other anti-monarchy Sunni Saudi tribes, when seen in context with expanding
Iranian driven Shia arc in the backdrop of US-Israeli designs in Middle East can
prove extremely dangerous. He cannot overlook the possibility of division
within KSA armed forces as it happened in Syrian military, Libyan military and
Yemen Army.
The picture is further complicated by the presence of Al-Qaeda
in Arabian Peninsula, which has staged numerous deadly attacks from its
strongholds in the south and south-east in Yemen. After their ouster from Abyan
and Shabwan provinces by Hadi in 2013, they have again regrouped and recently
taken over Al-Houta near Aden which was in occupation of Houthis and Saleh
friendly troops. They freed 300 prisoners from a jail in Aden on April 2. Sunni
tribes in north Yemen are getting aligned with al-Qaeda which is
surreptitiously filling up security vacuums. There is a segment of
sympathizers of Al-Qaeda in KSA as well. Emergence in late 2014 of a Yemen affiliate of Islamic State
(IS) is yet another threat, which claims to have carried out a series of
suicide bombings in Sana in March 2015. Strong presence of the IS in western
Iraq is perilously close to KSA’s northern border, which claims to have
sizeable number of supporters in KSA and has declared its intentions to capture
Mecca and Medina.
This time, House of Saud has decided not to seek western
assistance as it had done in 1990 and instead is relying on the Muslim armed
forces. The Arab League sanctioned establishment of joint force comprising all
Gulf States less Oman, Jordon, Morocco and Sudan. Malaysia and Indonesia have
consented to assist whenever KSA’s integrity is threatened and so has Pakistan.
Joint Arab force is meant to overawe Iran and non-state actors. Ironically, the
Joint Arab Force has no mandate to protect Palestinians from Israeli
aggression. KSA’s urgent request for Pakistani fighter
jets and naval warships to take part in its war against the Houthis has put
Pakistan in a tight situation, although it has in principle
agreed to defend KSA whenever its territorial integrity and sovereignty was
threatened.
Pakistan is walking on
tight rope since on one hand there is massive home pressure to avoid getting
involved in someone else’s war, on the other, KSA expectations are high. Our
chest thumping, or logical reasoning and genuine compulsions will not impress
them since this time the stakes are very high. Ideally, the Saudis want our
trained pilots to immediately strike Houthi targets and force them to surrender
so that the need for a ground offensive doesn’t arise. As a minimum, they want Pakistan-Turkey-Egypt
military’s physical presence along with Arab Military Force as a symbolic
gesture of support to deter Iran and IS from meddling in Yemen and other Sunni
ruled Arab States.
Concerns
shown at home are that Pakistan’s hands are already full fighting existential
war in three hot regions. With 172,000 troops deployed in the west, dispatching
another division size force to fight someone else’s war would be at the cost of
upsetting Operation Zarb-e-Azb, weakening military balance along eastern
border, disturbing Shia-Sunni harmony at home leading to conflict, spoiling
Pak-Iran relations and possibly heating up southern border. It is also argued
that we have already suffered a great deal fighting someone else’s war and
cannot afford to jump into another war. Good thing is that while there is
strong opposition to involvement of Pakistani troops in Yemen war, most are on
one page with regard to the defence of KSA.
Irrespective
of these genuine constraints, Pakistan can ill-afford to look the other way in
KSA’s testing times. Besides China and Turkey, KSA is also a time-tested friend
and has always come to the aid of Pakistan whenever chips were down. About two
million Pakistanis working in KSA are sending huge remittances. Pakistan and
KSA enjoy excellent relations based on mutual respect and shared interests. Their
relations are marked by full trust and complete understanding and not for once
there was any point of friction. While KSA provided military assistance during
1965 war and oil and financial assistance liberally to bail it out of series of
crisis, and has been in sync with Pakistan on major regional and global issues,
Pakistan has also been reciprocating Riyadh’s friendly gestures by stationing
up to 18000 troops in Tabuk from 1982 till 1990 and then deploying a brigade
size force along Yemen border when Iraq had annexed Kuwait in August 1990. Even
now, about 1000 non-combatant troops are present in KSA. The two countries hold
joint exercises regularly. Today, KSA’s defence budget is the 4th
largest in the world and its forces are laced with latest weapon systems. Yemen poses no
military threat to KSA’s territorial integrity but can become a cause of
instability. Rather than fighting
prolonged insurgencies inside, KSA wants to keep the flames well away and to
keep the States bordering KSA peaceful and friendly so as to have perimeter of security.
After all, the US is fighting war on terror across seven seas to keep its homeland
secure.
Looking
at Pak-Iran relations, the two neighbors enjoyed best of relations during the
era of Shah of Iran. However, after the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979,
Pak-Iran relations remained mired in misgivings for one reason or the other.
Despite its coolness, Pakistan didn’t abandon Iran when it was declared an
outcast by the west and was isolated till as late as November 2013. Fact of the
matter is that Pak-Iran proximity is a geo-strategic necessity for both and
must be mutually sustained. With hostile eastern border and western border in a
state of flux, Pakistan can ill-afford to have trouble on its southern border. However, it cannot
be ignored that both KSA and Iran have been promoting Wahhabism and Shiasm in
Pakistan since 1980s and have contributed to the rise of sectarianism in
Pakistan.
Other aspect that must
be understood is that Iran has not declared itself as a stakeholder in Yemen
crisis. Nor it admits that it is providing assistance to Houthis. KSA and not
Iran has common border with Yemen and only former gets directly affected by the
chaos in Yemen. Till Houthis gain power through elections, they are no more
than non-state actors snatching power forcibly. Request for air support by the
elected government of Hadi duly recognized by UNSC was not illegal and very
much fall within charter of UN. While Iran has no internal or external threat
from Sunnis, Shia ruled Iraq, Shia Alawite ruled Syria, Shia heavy Bahrain, Shia
Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as Shias in KSA’s eastern
province are a source of serious concern for KSA. It feels that Yemen under
Iran’s influence will further strengthen the Shia arc around it. Yemen is its
backyard which it would like to keep nonviolent and friendly.
Having
seen the regime changes in Tunisia and Egypt and serialized destruction of
Iraq, Libya, Syria, Somalia and Yemen and division of Sudan in recent times,
Riyadh cannot remain oblivious of the possibility of foreign aided unrest
within KSA. Why KSA should not get worried and threatened when Houthis hate
Saudi leaders and declared KSA as a brutal and Evil State? Abdul Karim
al-Khawani, an important Houthi leader, who was killed in infighting in January
2015, stated that, “We will circle Khana Kaaba in the next Hajj as conquerors”.
Nic Robertson in CNN program reported that Houthis had threatened attacks
inside KSA territory. For the first time two Saudi border guards were killed by
Houthi fighters in a fire exchange on April 3, 2015.
The
US has taken full advantage of intra-Arab rivalries and Arab-Iran hostility to
achieve its strategic goals in Middle East. Annexation of Iraq by US in 2003
followed by Arab Spring triggered by the US and Israel in 2011 were meant to
further speed up the accomplishment of their objective of changing the
boundaries of Middle East and harness resources as well as help Israel in
establishing ‘Greater Israel’ stretching from River Nile to Euphrates. The map
of Col Ralph Peter published with his article ‘Blood Borders’ in 2006 shows
extent of the kingdom confined to Mecca and Medina only. The US was involved in
Yemen war from 2011 onwards and it used its drones and Special Forces against
Al-Qaeda in Yemen. No eyebrows were raised against that intervention. What is
intriguing is that the US has winded up its drone war once Houthis gained
power.
Although
Iran has been gradually increasing its influence in the Middle East since 1979,
instability in Middle East helped Iran in expanding its sphere of influence up
to Lebanon. Its expansion to some extent was curtailed by US-EU-Israeli
hostility and draconian sanctions. This handicap has to a large extent been
removed after the nuclear agreement in Lausanne on March 31, 2015 but has
sharpened internal divide between Conservatives and Reformists, former seeing
it as a ‘sellout’. While Russia is unhappy over P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran, Israel
and KSA are equally apprehensive of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it’s growing
military power and expanding influence in the region. At the same time, the US
has begun to rely more on Iran to roll back IS from captured areas in Iraq
since Iraqi and Irani Shia militias together with Revolutionary Guards and Kurds
under Gen Qassem Sulaiman have achieved several victories including Tikrit. At
the same time, Washington is mindful of expanded influence of Iran in the
region and is looking for ways and means to curtail it.
Going
by the saying “A friend in need is a friend indeed”, Pakistan must use all its
diplomatic skills to help find a diplomatic solution to Yemen crisis by
co-opting as many Muslim countries in its exterior manouevre and at the same
time assuring Riyadh that KSA’s territorial integrity and sovereignty as well
as security of Holy places of Mecca and Medina will be undertaken with full
force. Half-baked
response will prove counterproductive as it had happened in 1990. Heated discussion
in the joint parliament session was a sad spectacle. There were more pro-Iran
and pro-Saudi legislators and very few pro-Pakistan legislators/Senators.
Thin attendance showed their lack of seriousness. Print and electronic media
has been indulging in unsavory discussions, not realizing that Pakistan’s
sincere friends are very few. KSA and not Iran is in duress, so instead of
rescuing KSA, why so much of hullabaloo to save Iran? When Iran’s integrity
gets threatened, by all means, give it all out support.
Meeting
of Pak-Turkey leaders in Ankara, visit of Iranian foreign minister to Islamabad
and Iran’s four-point plan to end Yemen crisis are positive developments. Contours
of the plan are immediate ceasefire, hold dialogue and work for establishment
of broad-based government. The only sticking point is surrender of arms by
Houthis before air attacks are halted and ceasefire take place. Jordon’s
resolution manifesting Arab League’s aspirations seeks to disarm Houthis, imposition
of arms embargo and re-installation of Hadi regime before sitting for a
dialogue. Arabs know that they cannot win the war through air attacks alone and
sooner than later ground troops will have to be used which will prove risky and
expensive given the nature of terrain and Houthis expertise in guerrilla war.
Iran
is keen to stop hostilities since prolongation of conflict will strengthen
Al-Qaeda and IS and the two could join up to defeat Houthis. Acquisition of
cluster bombs by KSA is also a cause of worry for Tehran. Pakistan and Turkey
can play a key role in convincing Iranian leadership to stay away from Yemen
and also impressing upon Riyadh to give peace a chance. Riyadh-Tehran
rapprochement will go a long way in easing tensions in Yemen and in Middle
East. The UN and OIC also need to be woken up from slumber and pressed to play
their role in defusing the volatile situation. Pakistan should consider volunteering
to become part of UN designated peace keeping mission in Yemen once ceasefire
takes place.
Last but not the least, both KSA and Iran should
carryout dispassionate introspection and judge for themselves what they have
gained from the proxy wars within Muslim countries and what has been lost. The
whole Middle East is in turmoil and drenched in blood and is at the verge of
implosion. The tumult is heading towards sectarian war at a much bigger scale,
which if God forbid triggers, it will ease the task of Great-Game players to
neo-colonize the Muslim world as a whole. There is still time to avert this disaster
and mend fences. Intra-Arab rivalry and Arab-Iran rivalry must end to safeguard
the future of Muslim Ummah. The US should also carryout self-analysis and see
what it has gained and lost after spending $2 trillion in Middle East.
With regard to Pakistan’s military
support, knowing the geostrategic compulsions and difficulties of the Army, it
will be worthwhile to tap the reservoir of 2.5 million Pak armed forces veterans
under the helmsman-ship of retired Lt Gen Hamid Gul. I am sure; one to two
composite divisions can easily be created from within this valuable reservoir,
which is lying redundant to defend southern border of KSA and also provide
trainers, advisers, technical and medical support. Jet and fighter pilots as
well as warship crews can also be found from within this experienced, well-trained
and disciplined workforce. This platform can also help in carrying out an
in-depth appraisal of the emerging threats in Middle East and suggesting concrete
proposals to address the security concerns of KSA as well as best utilization
of joint Arab Force to meet all kinds of future threats.
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