Kissinger on Afghanistan

In his article,  �gThe way forward�h, on Feb.26, 2009, Henry Kissinger has not given any concrete solution for the Afghan problem. He has concluded, �gWhatever strategy they (Obama�fs new team on Afghanistan) select needs to be pursued with determination.� h But the problems and difficulties he has pointed out in the article are quite genuine and realistic.  And these lead to a clear conclusion, which he is afraid to suggest boldly.

He says that Obama administration cannot sustain the strategy that has brought US to the present situation in Afghanistan. He has rightly pointed out, �gThat strategy cannot succeed in Afghanistan - especially not as an essentially solitary effort. The country is too large for it, the territory too forbidding, the ethnic composition too varied, the population too heavily armed. No foreign conqueror has ever succeeded in occupying Afghanistan.� h  He has rightly pointed out, �gOnce free of foreign forces, the various ethnic and regional groups would resume their autonomies, only reluctantly submitting to central authority and only in a limited way.�h  Thus, he clearly observes the possible failure of US strategy, but  is afraid to conclude  that the US also cannot succeed as a conqueror to occupy Afghanistan, even for a limited period of time.

He has referred to General David Petraeus, who �ghas argued that, reinforced by the numbers of American forces he has recommended, he should be able to control the 10 percent of Afghan territory where, in his words, 80 percent of the military threat originates.�h  Kissinger has rightly pointed out, �gIn the end, the fundamental issue is not so much how the war will be conducted but how it will be ended.�h The end is 10 percent control only.  Why then Obama Administration should waste its efforts only to control 10 percent of Afghan territory?  

As regards guerilla sanctuaries along the Pakistan-Afghanista n border, Kissinger admits, �gthe sanctuaries exist less by the design of the Pakistan government than by its political and military inability to control the territory along the Afghan border, which has never been under civil administration - even during British rule.�h  Under such a situation, will it be a wise strategy for the US to continue an unwinnable Afghan war, when even guerilla sanctuaries could not be brought under control until now, either by the British, or by the Soviet Russia or by Pakistan?

Taliban do not have the same agenda as al-Qaida. They regard themselves �gFreedom Fighters�h and want to get rid of foreign forces from their territory. Has any imperial power ever succeeded in occupying a foreign country?  The Independence movements of all Asian and African colonies of Western imperialists suggest a clear conclusion for the US war in Afghanistan.  It will prove to be a Vietnam for Obama, as it was for the Soviet Russia as well.

Hussain Khan, Tokyo