Iran-US
rancor melting into amity
Asif Haroon Raja
In the aftermath of 2nd World
War and start of super power rivalry in the form of cold war, the US saw Iran
as a counterweight against Soviet expansionism and a source of stability in
oil-rich Persian Gulf. CIA and MI-6 jointly engineered a coup in 1953 to oust
elected PM Mohammad Mossadegh since he had tried to nationalize Iran’s oil
industry and brought US friendly Reza Shah Pahlavi to power. The US helped Shah
in modernizing the country and its armed forces as well as in setting up
dreaded intelligence agency known as Savaks in 1957. Iran’s military turned
into a formidable force to reckon with in Middle East and Shah. Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini, a religious leader was exiled to Turkey in 1964 after he
criticized Shah’s relationship with USA. In 1978, turmoil swept Iran which
allowed Imam Khomeini to return home and seize power in March 1979.
Iran-US antagonism started peaking in the
aftermath of Islamic revolution in Iran, followed by seizure of American
Embassy in Tehran by student militants in November 1979 and holding 52
Americans hostage for next 444 days. An American rescue operation ended in a
disaster, which further bolstered Khomeini’s image in Iran and Islamic world.
Hostages were released as a result of secret agreement under which the US
secretly sold arms to Iran and used the proceeds to bankroll a secret war in
Central America against Contras. While Iran dubbed USA as the Great Satan, the
US named Iran as evil. In order to punish Iran, Iraq under Saddam Hussain was
instigated to declare war against its neighbor Iran in 1980. The dual hidden
objective was to smother fledgling Islamic power as well as to rein-in
ambitious Saddam wanting to emerge as the leader of the Arab world after Egypt
signed peace treaty with Israel.
Besides the war with Iraq, Iran got
involved in Lebanon’s civil war in the 1980s where it supported its advance
guard Hezbollah. The US military and CIA exited from Lebanon in 1983 as a
consequence to two deadly bombing attacks on US Embassy and CIA HQ in Beirut,
allegedly undertaken by Hezbollah. Throughout the 1990s, Iran and its creation
Hezbollah were blamed for sponsoring terrorism around the world. Iran was also
accused of providing critical support to Hamas suicide bombers against Israel.
Bill Clinton imposed oil and trade sanctions on Iran in 1995. A slight
improvement in Iran-US relations took place in 1997 after reformist Mohammad
Khatami was elected president and he waved an olive branch. Some penalties were
lifted. However, their relations dipped low after 9/11 when George W. Bush
included Iran with Iraq and North Korea in his ‘axis of evil’ and rebuffed
Khatami’s offer of ‘grand bargain’ after he learnt about Iran’s nuclear
program.
The US and Israeli leadership started
breathing fire when Iran laid the foundation of its nuclear program in 2002 and
procured as well as indigenously manufactured array of ballistic missiles
capable of striking Israel. Iran was accused of arming Iraqi Shiites and
tasking them to kill American troops occupying Iraq. Matters worsened when
former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005 and he questioned the
authenticity of Holocaust saying that it was a myth. He further raised the blood
pressure of Israeli leaders by threatening to wipe out Israel from the face of
the world. Despite CIA’s full backup support to reformists and destabilization
of Zahidan and Siestan provinces with the help of Jundullah group based in
Balochistan, Ahmadinejad won the second term in 2009 and he became more rigid
on the issue of Iran’s nuclear program.
The US in league with the UN and EU began
applying diplomatic, political, economic and military pressures on Iran to
isolate it and to force it to abandon its nuclear program allegedly geared
towards making a nuclear bomb. Four-fold crippling penalties included freezing
of foreign currency accounts in western banks to the tune of over $7 billion.
These pressures were backed by propaganda and covert wars to affect regime
change. CIA kept pumping in millions of dollars to discredit the ruling regime
and to promote moderate Reformists. Efforts were made to win over Centrists as
well. In 2012, Iran was blacklisted from international banking network and
embargo was applied on oil exports. These steps radically brought down Iran’s
oil production and severely hurt its economy and resulted in high inflation.
Riyal dipped to 40,000 Riyal to a dollar.
Provoked by Ahmadinejad’s jingoistic and
vitriolic statements and concerned by Iran’s fast growing military and nuclear
prowess, together with Tehran’s support to its arch rivals Hezbollah in
Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and Assad regime in Syria, Israel started ringing alarm
bells and describing Iran as an existential threat to its security. It kept
poisoning the ears of USA and western countries and asked them to stop Iran
from pursuing its nuclear program or else nip the evil in the bud. When the US
dithered due to its neck deep involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, Israel
threatened to strike Iran’s nuclear sites unilaterally. While Netanyahu
maintained that Israel reserved the right to protect itself from nuclear Iran,
and claimed that nuclear armed Iran would dramatically increase terrorism by
giving terrorists a nuclear umbrella, he didn’t specify as to what damage
nuclear armed Israel posed to its neighbors. To exert pressure on Iran, Israel
asked USA to approve sale of advanced refueling aircraft and GBU bunker busting
bombs. Idea was to convey to Iran that its underground nuclear sites would not
be safe from GBUs.
Despite heavy economic bleeding, Iran
refused to cow down and stood its ground. It maintained its stance that the
nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and it has the right to develop it. In
the face of looming dangers, Ahmadinejad threatened that if attacked, Strait of
Hormuz would be blocked. His aggressive policies were fully supported by people
of Iran. Things came to a pass when the internal situation of Syria spun out of
control in the wake of use of chemical weapons allegedly by Syrian forces and
the US supported by France and UK deciding to intervene militarily. Iran and
Russia stood behind Assad regime. With so many powerful actors involved in the
Syrian muddle, a war of bigger dimension in the volatile region of Middle East
seemed imminent.
While Syria became the battleground for
proxy wars of Saudi Arabia and Iran, noted analysts opined that the US was
paving its way to strike Iran after dismantling Syria. The explosive situation
cooled down as a result of Russian President Putin’s wise counsel. An agreement
was signed with USA in which Assad agreed to open its chemical weapons stocks
for international inspection and subsequent destruction in return for US-NATO
putting off strikes. Diplomacy prevailed upon use of force, thus adding a
feather in Putin and Obama’s caps. While Assad breathed a sigh of relief, the
military contractors in USA, France and Britain as well as Saudi Arabia and
Qatar that had extended full support to the NATO’s intended offensive plan felt
thoroughly disappointed. Obama’s preference to Muslim Brotherhood over Hosni
Mubarak in Egypt until Morsi was overthrown by Egyptian military on July 3,
2013 had already disconcerted King Abdullah. Obama’s volte face in Syria
further angered him and he decided to forgo Saudi seat in the UNSC, terming it
was a dead horse.
While the hawks were still trying to
absorb the shock effects of US u-turn on Syria, interim nuclear agreement
signed in Geneva between Iran and P5+1 on November 24, 2013 came as a bolt from
the blue. The deal which came about as a result of secret talks between US and
Iranian officials in Oman since last March has the potential to dramatically
change the geo-strategic landscape of Middle East in particular and neighboring
regions in general. Israel is incensed since it feels that temporary freeze may
delay but will not block Iran’s resolve to manufacture a nuclear bomb. Israel
with its over 200 nuclear warheads has the temerity to demand complete shutdown
of Iran’s enrichment program, dismantlement of 19000 centrifuges and uprooting
of heavy water reactor at Arak. Saudi Arabia is upset for not being kept
informed. Some Gulf countries with Shia minorities and Bahrain with Shia
majority are disconcerted over the development. They apprehend that the US
patronage may enable Iran to not only regain its envied position in Middle East
and in the process hinder growing Saudi-Qatari influence in the region, but
also embolden it to export Shiaism. A Saudi analyst expressed his frustration
saying that the US uses allies ‘like prostitutes’ and then dump them. The US
Congress under the influence of Israel is unhappy and is still insisting on
imposition of more sanctions.
While retaining the right to uranium enrichment,
Iran will cap its nuclear enrichment up to 5% for next six months and will
allow IAEA to inspect nuclear sites. The US in return will defreeze Iran’s bank
accounts in western countries and gradually remove sanctions. The deal can
falter in case the US feels that Tehran is breaching the interim agreement, or
Iran feels that the US is not giving sufficient relief. Spoilers however will
continue to thwart the deal. In case the deal collapses, and Iran races ahead
to manufacture the bomb, Obama will face the consequences of failure. But if
the deal materializes into a final pact, it will add another feather in the hat
of Obama. Whatever may be the outcome of the interim deal, what is satisfying
is that the situation that had boiled to a bursting point has been cooled down
and chances are that it will not trigger again.
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