Change but not bloody revolution.

By

 Dr Ghayur Ayub

For the past fifteen years, I have assumed bloody revolution is the only solution to the corrupt systems in Pakistan. I linked it with impending change. The major pillars of society are buried so deep in fraudulent practices that I thought only bloody revolution could make it right. Recently, I realised I might not be right in thinking that change can only come about through such a revolution. Three things changed my mind;

·         First, the fall of USSR. It was not only bloodless but it left political power of the globe in the hands of one superpower.

·         Second, the attacks of 9/11, after which the only superpower drew a line between those who supported its policy on terrorism and those who opposed it.

·         Third, when an apparently weak Chief Justice of Pakistan said no to the most powerful General of Pakistan on March, 9, 2007.

These three apparently diverse situations had one commonality. They were all shown ‘live’ on our television screens in our drawing rooms; thanks to advancement in IT. As a result of this advancement, the world has shrunk into a global village and today, we accept theories such as a butterfly flapping its wing in Beijing can cause a tornado in Florida by seeing it. It made me go back to the internet (the treasure of knowledge) and study the concept of revolution afresh.

Basically, the aim of revolution is to bring abrupt change to current systems which have failed the ordinary people of society. The major source of the failure is prevailing corruption which infiltrates implementation processes of the incumbent laws, rules and regulations.  In the old days, such failures usually brought bloody revolutions. That’s what I thought for the past fifteen years. Not anymore; not in Pakistan. Though, I still believe a drastic change is inevitable in this country because of uncontrolled corruption and its devastating fallout witnessed in deteriorating governance, increasing poverty, desperate job scarcity, unavailable utilities and a worsening law and order situation. Each and every item is a recipe for pent-up emotions loaded with rage. So the country is ready for an absolute change but not the type I originally thought. Revolution; yes but not a bloody one. It will be soft, garbed in evolution. 

All revolutions pass through a set of stages. Chaos is the melting point, which is the precursor of a change in mass psyche that leads people to come out on the streets. If the society is prone to hero worship, then all the better. A few firebrand leaders convert a peaceful movement into militancy and when they paint their words with religious zeal, it turns into extremism labelled erroneously by some as a fundamentalist movement. It is interesting to note, that in the history of Pakistan, we find three occasions when a melting point was reached and thousands of people came out on the streets all over the country.

1.      First, in the late 1960s under the leadership of ZAB.

2.      Second, in the mid 1980s under MRD leadership.

3.      Third, in March 2007 under the leadership of the lawyers.

All these movements had one thing in common; each time an army general was at the helm of political affairs and ruled the country. Generals are trained to work in an organised bureaucratic model. They carry this pattern when they take over politics. As a result, when public opinion surfaces on issues, they, like typical bureaucrats, put a lid on it letting it brew. Piling up of demands keep the kettle boiling with no outlet thus changing public discomfort into frustration and mere annoyance into rage; a recipe for bursting of pent-up emotions.

As opposed to military regimes, democratic set ups keep the outlets open to release public frustrations through;

·         Putting themselves in the public courts at time of elections

·         Having frequent debates with oppositions on burning issues,

·         Exposing themselves daily for scrutiny on TV talk shows.

In such circumstances, when the means of letting out public frustration persist, the chances of revolution diminish. And even if the public temper heats up it only turns into a short term movement without reaching the critical point of a full fledge bloody revolution. And this is the beauty of democracy.

Now, the question is, will Pakistan see a bloody revolution as described in the dictionaries? I don’t think so. Does it mean we will carry on with the status quo? When we look at the; vibrant and free electronic media; an independent and aggressive judiciary; and vastly aware public, one cannot imagine that the prevailing corrupt practices of PPP government can go on unnoticed. So the public is in the mood for change; but not through a bloody revolution, not through doctored elections and definitely not through selective accountability. They have seen the disappointing results of the latter two. The change this time will be evolutionary through; across the board accountability by independent accountability body; elections to the Parliament by an independent Election Commission headed by an honest and honourable Judge; and cleansing of government departments in the same way as was done in the motorway police.

Today, when we look around there are signs which may appear to support a bloody revolution. For example, according to expert analysis based on credible data taken from reliable sources; 1000 mega watt decrease in electricity means 3 million people losing jobs. Speaking on TV only yesterday, Raja Pervez Ashraf disclosed that Pakistan is facing 5000 mega watt shortfall. This means 15 million people out of jobs. If we translate this into financial loss, it means 1000 mega watts loss comes to 10 billion dollar shortage in terms of GDP. Multiply this by 5 (the present shortfall) it comes to 50 billion dollars. According to the experts this shortfall will double or even treble in the months of June/July. Wow!

This is just one aspect of poor governance; if we add a few more to this, we will come to the conclusion that the government is playing a catalytic role in initiating a change. But I’ll say it again; the change won’t be a bloody revolution. It may not even be a good old style midterm election. It will definitely not be ‘marching boots’ this time either; they have enough on their plate fighting terrorism. The change seems imminent. People this time are looking with hope at the independent judiciary; staring at their TV channels of free media for support; and eyeing the backseat role of military. While politicians are busy growling at each other about the 18^th amendment bill; showing spitefulness on provincial names; and opening closets to show the skeletons of their political opponents.

The major responsibility lies with the leadership of PPP. If they do not put their house in order right at the top, soon they will face the wrath of the public; not through a bloody revolution, not as marching boots; not even as midterm election. It will be something else, which will be a lesson for the future politics of Pakistan. All I can say is the occupant of a funny looking building on the right side of the Parliament House is watching the resident of the pillared building on the left. The ‘political house’ needs cleansing and needs it badly and fast, before it is too late.  

The end