Tape of do more mantra switched on again

Asif Haroon Raja

The year 2009 was the worst year for Pakistan during which it had to bear with maximum terrorist attacks and drone strikes and suffer maximum casualties. Current year was predicted to be even worse despite the fact that the Army had succeeded in releasing much of pressure exerted by Tehrik-e-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP) by overpowering Malakand Division and Swat and neutralizing South Waziristan. Effective checkmating of surging tide of militancy that had made FATA and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa restive and its impact was felt in Islamabad and major cities of Punjab did have a sobering effects on the singers singing do more mantra non-stop.   

By the time strategic dialogue took place in Washington from 24 March onwards, Pak-US relations had dipped low and trust deficit had widened. Pak was virtually out of the loop and seen as a liability. Policy makers in US had made up their mind that unless main base of al-Qaeda in FATA and Taliban Shura in Quetta are disabled, sit in Afghanistan will not improve and hope of converting looming defeat into victory will remain dim. Pakistan was suspected of harboring and abetting Taliban and al-Qaeda to serve long term interests in Afghanistan. Genuine security concerns of Pakistan were ignored. With such jaundiced mindset Pakistan was cautioned not to remain locked with TTP only but also to crackdown upon the outfits operating against US-NATO with full force.

The US applied brakes on its offensive policy against Pakistan at the dawn of 2010 and began to mollycoddle Pakistan essentially because of spectacular gains made by Pak Army against militant forces and in contrast unsatisfactory performance of coalition forces in Afghanistan. While the TTP in Pakistan is in disarray and on the run, Taliban in Afghanistan are rapidly gaining ground and have gained influence over nearly 80% of Afghan territory. This change in stance was not because of change of heart but because of expediency and hence it remained short lived. Old unpleasant sound bytes have begun to emanate from Washington after the incident of Times Square on 01 May. In actuality, The US military has again failed to make any significant progress in Helmand while US administration and CIA have also failed to divide Taliban. The only course left to the US is to again make Pakistan the scapegoat and buy time.      

The US for all practical purposes has lost moral ground to win over the Afghan populace and military prowess to defeat resistance forces in Afghanistan and eliminate terrorism. War on terror waged against Islamic threat dubbed as the chief threat to US and western interests has proved to be an utter failure. Despite using excessive force, spending billions and losing thousands of coalition soldiers in the futile war in the last nine years, the US has failed to achieve any of its objectives. Instead of making any gains, it has lost prestige, respect and credibility and today ranks as the most hated country in the world. Its troop surges have made no impact on the rising tide of insurgency. In fact, there has been sudden escalation in militant activities in the recent weeks in the wake of operation in Marjah. The operational efficiency of Afghan Army (ANA) and police is far from satisfactory, while the performance of Karzai led regime is dismal. Iraq too continues to bleed and hardly a day passes peacefully. Suicide and car bomb attacks occur very frequently. The US alone has suffered over 5000 fatalities in Iraq and well over 2000 in Afghanistan and number of injured run into tens of thousands.

Unless the growing influence of Mullah Omar led Taliban, Jalaluddin Haqqani led network, Al-Qaeda and Gulbadin led Hizbe-e-Islami in southern and eastern Afghanistan is curtailed, no worthwhile results can be achieved. Even if Kandahar is captured, it will make little difference to the overall strength of militant forces waging Jihad against occupation forces. The militants are imbued with undiminished ideological fervour because of superior cause, they are fearless and indefatigable, they live off the land and as such have no logistic tail, they have lot of patience to withstand rigours, time is of no consequence to them and rising fatalities do not lower their zeal.

Coalition forces on the other hand are comfort loving, they work for material benefits, they care for their lives and want to return home in one piece, they are devoid of a just cause because of which they suffer from sense of guilt, isolation and fear. They lack dedication and their morale is low due to which cases of suicide, desertions and mental disorders are rising. Having been given the good news that they would start moving out from July 2011 onwards, they are impatiently waiting for their turn to return home and as such have no heart to carryout military operations with full commitment. They tend to avoid combat as much as possible and prefer aerial and drone attacks leaving ground operations mostly to the ANA. The latter fighting as a mercenary army of the US and fighting its own people for the wrong cause is equally devoid of desired warrior spirit and enthusiasm. Under the obtaining security situation, possibility of victory for ISAF has become bleak and that of defeat distinct. The US can at best hope to contain terrorism to some extent, buy time and hope for a smooth exit.

Instead of focussing on the main trouble spots of southern and eastern Afghanistan, which are the bastions of Taliban, and trying to recover the lost ground, the US continues to follow its old policy of blaming Pakistan for all its failures. Instead of putting its own house in order, it finds faults in its neighbour. It has subjected Pakistan to variety of unsubstantiated and false allegations. It says some elements if not all in Pak Army and ISI are in cahoots with Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda; these elements are providing support to anti-American militants and facilitating cross border movement. After describing FATA as the breeding ground and most dangerous place on earth, it is now being alleged that entire al-Qaeda leadership including Osama are housed in FATA and Afghan Shura in Quetta since 2002 and that some elements within the Army and ISI know the whereabouts of Osama and Mullah Omar. It was also alleged that any future attack on US homeland would emanate from FATA.

Till mid October 2009, South Waziristan (SW) was projected as the main base of militants and Pakistan was pressured to mount an operation soon after its operation Rah-e-Raast. After success of operation Rah-e-Nijat in SW, the US has lost interest in SW and diverted all its attention on North Waziristan (NW). Well knowing that Pak Army is already overstretched and cannot afford to open a new front particularly because of the threat from India and the fact that Swat and SW have not been fully stabilised, various methods are being applied to exert pressure on Pakistan. Apart from intensifying drone attacks in NW to provoke people of that region, terror acts against security forces by certain shadowy outfits like Asian Tigers, sponsored by RAW have also been accelerated to provoke Pak Army. Kidnapping of two former ISI officers and a British journalist by Asian Tigers, arrest of Faisal Shehzad in New York for his alleged botched car bomb attempt in Times Square, his connection with NW militants and Hillary Clinton tantrums are links of the same chain. Some more suchlike provocative acts together with tightening of financial aid are likely in the coming weeks/months to intensify pressure and make Pakistan do as told to do. US officials led by Hillary have switched on the tape of ‘do more mantra’ again since they know that our pliant leadership rather than ignoring it will respond to this tune with alacrity.

The writer is a retired Brig and a defence and security analyst.