OVERVIEW
Pervez Musharraf, facing his most serious challenge
in nearly eight years of authoritarian rule, is likely to try to retain power
despite growing opposition. Rumours abound in Pakistan that he will declare a
state of emergency, which would suspend fundamental rights and in effect mean
martial law. Given an increasingly assertive opposition following his 9 March
2007 decision to remove the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Iftikhar
Mohammad Chaudhry, it will be impossible for the president and his military
backers to maintain the status quo. Western friends of Pakistan, most
influentially the U.S., can tip the balance by delivering a clear message that
emergency rule is unacceptable and Pakistan should return to democratic
government by holding free, fair and democratic elections by the end of the
year.
The worst scenario is the imposition of rule by emergency
decree and the use of force to suppress the expected massive opposition. This
would immediately produce chaos and violence and ultimately increase the role of
Islamist groups and, if Washington supports the move, cause further anti-U.S.
feeling.
The best case is a transition to democratic rule through free
and fair elections that would marginalise extremist forces and reduce the
growing tensions in society. This could occur if the military feels it is in its
interests to pull back from direct rule, as it has in the past.
The U.S. should lead a move by the international community,
including the European Union and Japan, to urge a peaceful transition to
democratic rule by:
-
strongly and publicly warning against
any imposition of emergency rule or any measures to stifle constitutionally
guaranteed freedoms of speech, association, assembly and movement;
-
pressing General Musharraf to refrain
from any political interference in the case against the Chief Justice being
heard by the Supreme Court; and
-
urging the Pakistani military to allow
a return to democracy through free and fair elections, including allowing the
return of exiled political leaders.