Would Musharraf Rule Have a Catastrophic End?

By Usman Khalid

It is the first of November today. As I switched on my TV for the News from Pakistan I heard that a suicide bomber killed eight on a children's school belonging to the Pakistan Air Force base in Sargodha . Yesterday, a suicide bomber exploded himself in front of the house of the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff "“ General Tariq Majid - killing six including three policemen. This followed a week of clashes in Swat District of NWFP where a takfiri group led by Mullah Fadlullah uses public de-capitation of abducted soldiers as its preferred method of terrorising the populace. This morning it was also revealed by Hamid Mir on Geo TV that investigative agencies have found two Surface to Air Missiles in Rawalpindi and arrested the culprits. However, the Government has decided not to announce the "˜find' to the media or reveal the names of those arrested for their role in smuggling of the missiles by a hostile country believed to be USA . The CENTCOM Chief as well as the King of Jordan are in Islamabad today. Does all this tell us some thing? Sure, it does!

First, it tells us that the objective of the US in its so-called "˜war on terror' is to encourage mayhem in Muslim states to change the map of the "˜Broader Middle East'.  Their  plan envisages the creation/transformation of three whole countries into permanent US bases. These countries are: 1) Afghanistan (present day Afghanistan with Pashtun areas of Baluchistan and NWFP of Pakistan added), 2) Kurdistan carved out of Iraq , Iran and Turkey , and a new 3) Baluchistan carved out of Pakistani and Iranian Baluchistan.

Second, it tells us that the USA wants to dissipate the forces fighting American, Indian and Israeli occupation of Iraq, Afghanistan, Kashmir and Palestine in internecine war with so called "˜secular Muslims'.

Third, it tells us that the states of the region are unable to respond effectively to the challenge because these are ruled by unpopular puppets or imbecile leaders so dependent on America for their survival that they have to toe the American line.

The "˜free media' of Pakistan is so jubilant at its freedom to report the antics of Benazir and Nawaz Sharif that they are failing to inform the public of the conspiracies unfolding right in front of their eyes. The next few weeks are important not just for Pakistan but the whole region. In the next few weeks, the situation may be salvaged and so transformed that Musharraf era may appear no more than an inconsequential bad dream. The next week may see the removal of Musharaf from every office he hold, swearing in of the Chairman of the Senate as the interim President, and an interim government of "˜wise men' installed that is dedicated to the 'ule of law' and seeks to remove the cob-webs of dis-information created by the international media and our very own politicians.

In the same next few weeks, the country may embark on a course of self-destruction that might soon become irreversible thus fulfilling the fond dreams of the enemies of Pakistan and Islam. The nightmare scenario is that Musharraf reaches an understanding with Nawaz Sharif on the same lines as he has with Benazir; and the next elections are held while he is the President and the Interim Government is composed of Ministers nominated by Benazir, Nawaz Sharif and his own "˜king's parties'. The worst sub-scenario is that Shaukat Aziz continues as "˜Interim Prime Minister'.  Although he is called "˜short cut Aziz' in the satirical programme "˜ham sab umed say hain' his more popular name in public is "˜mukhber Aziz'. The literal meaning of "˜mukhber' is "˜informer'. It is normally prefixed or suffixed with "˜whose?' but in the case of Shaukat Aziz, it so obvious it is unnecessary.

The opposition to the American occupation is founded on an effective idea. That idea is that America cannot succeed without collaborators and that the collaborators are more vulnerable; get the collaborators and the enemy cannot succeed. That is the idea on which the resistance in Afghanistan and Iraq are operating. Every sailor, soldier, airman and policeman is a target. It is not because they have themselves done anything wrong; it is because they are the part of an apparatus of state collaborating with the enemy. Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan and the occupants of the musical chairs in Iraq are clearly puppets and the state apparatus they preside over is clearly illegitimate. But that is not the case in Pakistan . The majority of the people in Pakistan believed General Musharraf that America would not have hesitated to bomb Pakistan "˜back to the stone age' if he had not agreed to support the US invasion of Afghanistan. But after 9 March this year, when he sacked the Chief Justice of Pakistan, they are sure that his prime objective is to perpetuate himself in power. That is also the conclusion the Americans have reached and they do not like it.

The "˜deal' with Benazir has backfired on all the parties "“ on the Americans, on Benazir as well as on Musharraf. The "˜collaborators' have been even more clearly identified and the resolve of the 'esistance' has become much sharper. The "˜deal' has made sure that none of parties in the deal have the power to make things better. At this point in time, it is only the Supreme Court that can make things better. And the many collaborators are busy warning of danger of the "˜transition to democracy' being too fast. They warn that "˜precipitous departure' of General Musharraf from the scene would be very destabilising and may even provide an opportunity to the enemies of Pakistan to "˜intervene'. Nothing could be farther from the truth. General Musharraf has exhausted the prospect of "˜graceful exit'. He still has the opportunity for a 'apid exit'. But if he continued in his machinations, his end would be catastrophic in ways no one can foresee.

General Musharraf disappearing from the political scene on 15 November can still make things better. Those who say that his exit would cause instability and civil war are dead wrong. His exit would be joyfully celebrated not just in Pakistan but in the entire Muslim World. Pakistan is a state carved out by its people despite the hostility of the British rulers and the snares deployed by the Hindus. The challenge today is not very dissimilar. The Americans have replaced the British and the Hindus are still the eternal enemy. Voters helped in 1947; fighters helped more. Once again, voters could help; but the fighters are also resolute. What is more, both are clear that their objective is "˜sovereign freedom'; and they know who stands in their way.

The writer is Director London Institute of South Asia