How to Eliminate Load Shedding?

By Usman Khalid

The installed capacity in Pakistan is about equal to the demand of electricity and yet load shedding of electricity and also of gas is becoming worse by the day. Why? It is because the politicians who are supposed to make policy and oversee its execution have a very poor attention span and are unable to ask the right question to nail the lies they are told by the electricity-gas mafia on daily basis. They get obsessed with one thing or the other – corruption, mismanagement, or conspiracy – which is easily exploited to shift attention away from real culprits and from real solutions which are often simple and straight forward. In essence, if the ministers keep pretending they know all the answers and the media also holds them responsible for bad policy and poor execution, no problem would get solved let alone the problem of load shedding of electricity and gas. All ministers of water and power have been given a presentation about the problem as well the solutions. After that presentation the minister latched on to something which became his explanation as well as obsession. The department was quite happy as the responsibility shifted from the engineers and mangers to the minister. They started asking him what to do thus avoiding being held responsible when they did not deliver. The new PML(N) minister of water and power would undoubtedly have a new solution and a new obsession. Already there are signs he would be as horrible a failure as his predecessors. Already the nature of new obsessions is obvious and his failure certain.

The new administration has already come up with three ‘bold new idea’:

• Buying electricity from India.
• Converting power stations from oil to coal.
• Issuing bonds to pay for the ‘circular debt’.    

All three ideas are even more disastrous than any that the PPP government conceived or implemented. The electricity from India would need to be paid in foreign exchange and India would surely write in its contract – like the current IPPs - a provision for ‘guaranteed payment’ if less than agreed amount of electricity is purchased. Coal is the right fuel when it is locally available. It is right for Tharparkar , for the Salt Range and for Quetta and Baluchistan. But these would be new plants and would be part of the medium term solution to the shortage of power. Already, feasibility studies have been carried out on all of these projects. The new government needs to fund these projects preferably on BOOT (Build, Own, Operate & Transfer after 15 years) basis. The government should provide land free of cost and grant a mining licence for the duration of the contract.  As for government bonds, it is a bad idea. If money is borrowed from the State Bank, the interest is payable to that bank; if the bonds are purchased by the private sector, interest is payable at much higher market rates. In any case, deficit financing is not inflationary when it is for infrastructure projects; it causes unacceptable inflation when it is used for funding the budget deficit.           

According to the web site of the Ministry of Power, Pakistan had a total installed power generation capacity of 21,000 MWh in 2011. However, dependable or de-rated capacity is in the range of 14,000 to 16,000 MW during the year, due to variety of factors. The list of power stations of all types operational as well as under construction or planning is as under:-

Fossil
Station Location
Capacity (MW)
Status
Coal Desulfurization Project
Attock
 Proposed  
Coal Desulfurization Project II
Pindi Gheb
 Proposed 
Kot Addu Power Plant
Kot Addu
1,600 Operational; Oil- and Natural Gas-fired thermal stations 
Hub Power Company Plant
Hub
1,292 Operational; Oil-fired thermal station 
Bin Qasim Power Plant I
Karachi
1,260 Operational; Oil- and Natural Gas-fired thermal station 
Bin Qasim Power Plant II
Karachi
560 Operational; Natural Gas-fired Combine Cycle Power station 
Jamshoro Power Company
Jamshoro
1,054 Operational; Oil- and Natural Gas-fired thermal stations 
Guddu Thermal Station
Kashmore
1,049 Operational; Natural Gas-fired thermal stations 
Lalpir & Pakgen Thermal Station
Muzaffargarh
727 Operational; Oil-fired thermal stations 
Uch Power Plant
Uch
596 Operational; Natural Gas-fired thermal station 
Rousch Power Plant
Kabirwala
450 Operational; Natural Gas-fired thermal station 
TNB Liberty Power Plant
Daharki
250 Operational; Natural Gas-fired thermal station 
Foundation Power Company (FPCDL)
Daharki
177 Operational; Combined Cycle Power Plant 
Fauji Kabirwala FKPCL
Kabirwala
157 Operational; Combined Cycle Power Plant 
Gul Ahmed
Karachi
136 Operational; Furnace Oil 
Altern Energy
Fateh Jang
29 Operational; Gas-fired Diesel Engine 
Hydroelectric
 
 
Mangla
 
Tarbela
 
Diamer-Bhasha
 
Ghazi-Barotha
 
Warsak
 
Rasul
Location of major Dams in Pakistan
File:Major Hydro Projects Pakistan.pdf
Major current and future hydropower projects
Station Community Location
Capacity (MW)
Status
Tarbela Dam
  34°05′23″N 72°41′54″E34.08972°N 72.69833°E
3,478 Operational, proposed extension project to increase electricity generation by 1410 MW
Ghazi-Barotha Hydropower Project
  33°46′48″N 72°15′35″E33.78°N 72.25972°E
1,450 Operational; Run-of-the-river[

Mangla Dam
  33°08′31″N 73°38′42″E33.14194°N 73.645°E
1,000 Operational, plan to increase generation by 120 MW
Warsak Dam
  34°09′50″N 71°21′29″E34.16389°N 71.35806°E
243 Dam completely silted up; Power generation by Run of the river. Extension is being planned
Chashma Barrage
  184 Operational
Khan Khwar hydropower project
Busham  72 Operational
Jagran-I Dam
  30.4 Operational
Rasul Barrage
  32°40′49″N 73°31′15″E32.68028°N 73.52083°E
22 Operational
Malakand Dam
  22 Operational
Dargai Dam
  20 Operational
Nadipur Dam
  13 Operational
Shadiwal Dam
  14 Operational
Chihoki Dam
  14 Operational
Renala Dam
  1 Operational
Chitral Dam
  1 Operational
Kuram Garhi Dam
  4 Operational
Gomal Zam Dam
Waziristan  17 Under construction; Hydropower station and dam is completed but irrigation system is 40% complete due to poor security in area. Expected to be completed by Dec 2012
Allai hydropower project
  121 Under construction; To be completed in Feb 2012

Duber Khwar hydropower project
  130 Under construction; to be completed by 2012
Jinnah hydropower project
  96 The first unit has already been synchronized with the National Grid. All other units will be synchronized by December 2012. The under construction plant was damaged when it submerged during 2010 Pakistan floods which delayed its progress.
Neelum–Jhelum Hydropower Plant
Muzaffarabad  969 Under construction. To be completed by 2016, two years ahead of schedule since WAPDA has purchase 2 TBM,s which will become functional by July 2012. Wapda is also in process of purchasing diesel engines to run these TBM,s.
Satpara Dam
  17.3 Under construction; expected to be completed in 2012
Golen Gol project
Chitral  106 To be completed by the end of 2015. cost estimate $130 million
Patrind Dam
Muzaffarabad  150 Privately owned hydropower plant. Under construction. expected to be completed in 2016
New Bong Escape
Mirpur  84 Privately owned hydropower plant. Under construction. To be completed by the end of 2012.[3]

Darawat Dam
Thatta  0.45 Under construction [24]

Kohala Hydropower Project
  1100 Tender given. Construction will be started once funds are available. Cost estimate $2.155 billion
Kalabagh Dam
  3600 Ready to be constructed. Engineering study completed but project is currently at pause due to lack of consensus between provinces.
Kurram Tangi Dam
  83.4 Ready to be constructed. Engineering study completed; cost estimate $700 million [24]

Diamer-Bhasha Dam
  35°31′0″N 73°47′31″E35.516667°N 73.79194°E
4,500 Ready to be constructed. Engineering study completed. Construction of a new bridge at Thakot, on River Indus and 323 km of Karakorum Highway (KKH) from Havalian to Dam site is required since currently no infrastructure exists for transportation of heavy machinery & equipment. To be completed in 8 years from commencement of project i.e. 2020.
Bunji Hydropower Project
  35°39′N 74°36′E35.65°N 74.6°E
7,100 Run-of-the-riverFeasibility studies in progress., cost estimate $6.8 billion
Phandar Hydropower Project
  80 Detailed engineering design or tender of documents under process, cost estimate $4.4 billion
Basho
  28 Detailed engineering design or tender of documents under process. Proposed, cost estimate $40 million
Keyal Khwar
  122 Detailed engineering design or tender of documents under process, cost estimate 180 million euro
Lawi
  70 Detailed engineering design or tender of documents under process, cost estimate $120 million
Harpo
  33 Detailed engineering design or tender of documents under process, cost estimate $46 million
Munda Dam
  34°21′11″N 71°31′58″E34.35306°N 71.53278°E
740 Under engineering study, cost estimate $1.149 billion
Akhori Dam
  600 Feasibility study stage, cost estimate $4.4 Billion
Bara Dam
  5.8 under construction or under engineering study
Dasu Hydropower Project
  4,320 Feasibility studies ongoing; cost estimate $5.3 billion
Lower Spat Gah
  496 Feasibility studies ongoing, cost estimate $697 million
Lower Palas Valley
  665 Feasibility studies ongoing, cost estimate $763 million
Thakot
  34°45′N 72°55′E34.75°N 72.917°E
2,800 Feasibility studies ongoing, cost estimate $6 billion
Patan
  2,800 Feasibility studies ongoing, cost estimate $6 billion
Tank Zam Dam
  25.5 Proposed, cost estimate $234 million
Mahl Hydropower Project
  34°55′N 73°34′E34.917°N 73.567°E
600 Proposed, Run-of-the-river

Kotli Hydropower Project
  100 Proposed, Run-of-the-river

Taunsa
  120 Proposed
Guddu
  33 Proposed
Karot, Pakistan
  720 Proposed
Azad Pattan
  650 Proposed
Harighel
  53 Proposed
Sehra
  130 Proposed
Chakotti Hattian
  500 Proposed
Jagran-II
  48 Proposed; Run-of-the-river;[ France has promised to fund part the construction. Construction expected to start in 2015.
Jabban
  22 Proposed
Sharmai
  115 Proposed
Madian, Pakistan
  157 Proposed
Asrit Kedam
  215 Proposed
Kalam Asrit
  197 Proposed
Gabral Kalam
  101 Proposed
Karang
  458 Proposed
Kaigha
  548 Proposed
Shogo-Sin
  132 Proposed
Shushgai Zhendoll
  144 Proposed
Yogo, Pakistan
  500 Proposed
Naltar-3
  16 Proposed
Naltar-5
  18 Proposed
Thor Hydropower Project
  3.6 Proposed
Yulbo Hydropower Project
  3000 Proposed
Shyok Hydropower Project
  520 Proposed
Tungus Hydropower Project
  2200 Proposed
Skurdo Dam
  1600 Proposed
Dudhnial Hydropower Project
  960 Proposed
Suki Kinari Hydropower Project
  840 Proposed
Kundal Shahi Hydropower Project
  960 Proposed
Trappi Hydropower Project
  32 Proposed
Rajdhani Hydropower Project
  132 Proposed
Tangir Hydropower Project
  15 Proposed, cost estimate $30.967 million
Matiltan Hydropower Project
  84 Proposed
Gulpur Hydropower Project
  100 Proposed
Winder Dam
  0.3 Proposed, cost estimate $148 million
Naulong Dam
  4.4 Proposed, cost estimate $377 million
Hingol Dam
  3.5 Proposed, cost estimate $311 million
Garuk Dam
  0.3 Proposed, cost estimate $21 million
Pelar Dam
  0.3 Proposed, cost estimate $20 million
Nal Gaj Dam
  0.3 Proposed, cost estimate $332 million
Daraban Zam Dam
  0.75 Proposed, cost estimate $69 million
Tank Zam Dam
  25.5 Proposed, cost estimate $234 million
Bara Dam
  5.8 Proposed, cost estimate $167 million
Ghabir Dam
  0.15 Proposed, cost estimate $121 million
Papin Dam
  0.2 Proposed, cost estimate $101 million
Nuclear
 
 
CHASNUPP-1
 
CHASNUPP-2
 
Karachi Nuclear Power Plant
Location of Nuclear Power Plants in Pakistan
Station Community Location
Capacity (MW)
Status
Chashma Nuclear Power Complex 1 (CHASNUPP-1)
  32°23′30.57″N 71°27′42.35″E32.391825°N 71.4617639°E
300 Operational
Chashma Nuclear Power Complex 2 (CHASNUPP-2)
  32°23′25″N 71°27′45″E32.39028°N 71.4625°E
300 Operational[27]

Chashma Nuclear Power Complex 3 (CHASNUPP-3)
  300 Under construction[28]

Chashma Nuclear Power Complex 4 (CHASNUPP-4)
  300 Under construction[28]

Karachi Nuclear Power Plant
  24°50′41″N 66°47′20″E24.84472°N 66.78889°E
125 Partially Operational at 100MWh since 2002 upon exceeding its design life; To be decommissioned in 2019
Karachi Nuclear Power Plant-II   1000 Proposed
Karachi Nuclear Power Plant-III   1000 Proposed
Renewables
According to a USAID report, Pakistan has the potential of producing 150,000 megawatts of wind energy, of which only the Sindh corridor can produce 40,000 megawatts.
Station Community Location
Capacity (MW)
Status
Jhimpir Wind Power Plant
  6 (plan to extend to 250)[29]
Operational; Pakistan's first wind power station

FFC Wind Farm
 Sindh 50 Operational
Thatta Power Plant
 Sindh 150 Proposed solar power station

Solar Energy Pakistan Ltd
 Thatta, Sindh 35 LOI issued
First Solar
 Punjab 2 LOI issued
AM Pak Energy
 Punjab 50 LOI issued
DACC LLC Solar
 Sindh 50 LOI issued
Wah Industries Limited Solar
 Taxila, Punjab 1 LOI issued
Tech Access Solar
 Punjab 10 LOI issued
CWE Solar
 Cholistan 50 LOI issued
Roshan Power Solar
 Kasur 10 LOI issued
Bakhsh Energy Solar
 Lodhran 20 LOI issued

The demand for electricity is increasing at an average annual rate of 8 per cent. According to World Energy Statistics 2011, published by IEA, Pakistan’s per capita electricity consumption is one-sixth of the World Average. World average per capita electricity Consumption is 2730 kWh compared to Pakistan’s per capita electricity consumption of 451kWh. Forty per cent of Pakistanis still have no access to electricity. International Energy Agency has forecasted that total electricity demand of the country will be 49078MW in 2025. As can be seen from the list of power stations in Pakistan, plans do exist for meeting the projected demand of 50,000 megawatts.

The medium term solution, which, as Mian Shahbaz Sharif said in a TV interview, is BMR – Balancing, Modernization & Refurbishment – all of which can be carried out by PEPCO and local representatives of Chinese and German companies.  The real challenge is in the short term where the ideas are either non-existent or inadequate.  The industry cannot wait months or years for it to work to full capacity. The short term challenge is twofold: one, theft of electricity and gas, two, high cost of electricity purchased from IPPs. The two together cause the circular debt i.e. the bills not being paid on time resulting in power plants being closed. The problem is further exacerbated by non-payment of bills and subsidy by the government. All of these are management problems for which the management must be held responsible after legitimate changes recommended by the management have been implemented. Drastic measures are needed to deal with these issues:

1. All contracts with IPPs be reviewed by a judicial inquiry to determine the extent of loss or damage caused by unlawful or unfair terms of contracts. Power companies that are revealed to have been engaged in false accounting to be prosecuted and/or nationalized without compensation.
2. The policy for gas load shedding be reversed. The plants that can switch to gas be provided gas on priority basis. Provision of gas to industry should also be given priority. Domestic consumers should be the last priority. Domestic consumers be supplied gas in early hours of the morning when the demand of gas for industry and electricity generation is the lowest. Domestic consumers were given priority by the outgoing government in the belief that it would be a vote winner. It turned out to be a false assumption. Jobs are more important than piped gas. In fact, in small town and villages should be supplied gas in bottles – LPG or CNG.
3. The plants that cannot switch to gas and have to rely on furnace oil should be provided oil at rates comparable to gas. Furnace oil is the product of fractional distillation, and it is heaviest and cheapest distillate. The price of petrol, diesel and kerosene may be so fixed that furnace oil is supplied at a price that the cost of electricity by furnace oil plants is no more than gas fed plants.
4. Administrative courts may be set up to investigate and prosecute employees found to be complicit in theft of gas or electricity. Legislation to be enacted to provide legal framework for punishment of thieves and complicit employees.
5. Load shedding to be graduated according to recovery made: Nil for recovery of 95% or more, two hours per day recovery of 90% or more, four hours for recovery of 80% or more; eight hours per day for recovery below 80%.
6. Gas prices to be doubled and LNG made more expensive – only 10% cheaper than petrol. 
7. Responsibility for subsidy on gas or electricity to be passed on to the provincial governments.

All the above short term measures can be introduced immediately with load shedding becoming bearable in a week and eliminated in six months. I am prepared to accept the challenge for implementing the above measures.++