Afghanistan ready to blow up while Pakistan Vacillates

Karzai Interview, Achakzai’s Outburst and GEO TV support to India’s Propaganda reveal the enemy strategy i.e. demonise the military and undermine the economy to destabilise Pakistan  

By Usman Khalid

http://www.rifah.org/site/afghanistan-ready-to-blow-up-while-pakistan-vacillates/

Quaid’s Residency in Ziarat – blown uo by CIA sponsored BLA on June 15

The attack by CIA supported Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) on Quaid’s Residency in Ziarat and attack on Bolan Medical Complex the very next day by RAW supported Lashkar e Jhangvi  killing 29 including 14 young girls, Four soldiers of FC including a Captain died.  Deputy Commissioner of Quetta, one Lady Doctor, four nurses, two policemen and six pedestrians were among the dead. The attacks reveal the new strategy for clandestine operations against Pakistan. The strategy is based on the hate harboured by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and several of his cabinet colleagues against the armed forces of Pakistan. It is well known that many PML(N) stalwarts were humiliated and treated very badly by General Musharraf. But they forget that PML(N) was created and patronised by the military under the rule of General Zia ul Haq. The PML(N) has been considered to be a pro-establishment Party and thrived on its support. Its constituency is still based in the patriotic majority which is pro-establishment. Does it have another constituency it can draw popular support from?   It does not! If it ignores its constituency its fall from grace would be much faster than that of Asif Zaradari’s PPP.

The political battle lines have been clearly drawn in Pakistan. All factions of the Pakistan Muslim League, Imran Khan’s TIP, and most of the religious political parties support the present Government even though TIP is formally a part of the opposition. The strength of the ruling coalition is very formidable. However, in Sindh and Baluchistan PML(N) draws support from Sindhi and Baluch nationalists who are without a clear agenda or popular leaders. In Sindh, the MQM has again secured the most seats through intimidation and electoral fraud. Since it is a RAW supported Mafia, it has demonstrated ability to mobilise street power to shut down the port city of Karachi. The Sindhis, particularly the nationalist who are the allies of PML(N) in Sindh, resent the hold of the MQM on the PPP leader Asif Zardari. TIP has shown in the elections this year that being a modernist party of the middle class it is more attractive for Mohajir voters than the fascist MQM. However, it will take another election – possibly local elections – for the change of heart of Mohajir voters to be reflected in the polls.

The attack on Quaid’s Residency came within a week of the election of a Baluch nationalist – Dr Abdul Malik - as the Chief Minister of Baluchistan. His Party (the National Party) has the smallest number of seats in the three party coalition in which Pashtun Nationalists (PKAMP) has been given the position of Provincial Governor but the largest partner in the coalition – PML(N) – is taking the back set. This ‘generosity’ was widely celebrated as auguring well for peace in Baluchistan. But the attacks in Quetta and Ziarat have put a question mark on the impact of that ‘generosity’.  Several political pundits had been expressing the view that the ‘generosity’ would be seen as a sign of weakness in the tribal society. It is early to say for sure who is right, but the portents are not good. That Indian protégés on GEO TV like Hamid Mir were quick to blame the ISI for the attacks. However, the interview by Salim Safi of President Hamid Karzai broadcast on GEO TV on 16 June clarified matters.  

President Karzai praised Asif Zardari and former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani for their efforts for peace but repeatedly blamed the Army and the ISI for all the trouble in Afghanistan which he said have spilt into FATA and the rest of Pakistan. He accused the Pakistani ‘establishment’ to be interfering on the internal affairs of Afghanistan. He said that Pakistan was trying to keep India out of Afghanistan in order to obtain ‘strategic depth. He said that the Pakistan Army was supporting the Taliban insurgents who control large areas of Afghanistan and is giving refuge to them on Pakistani territory. Today on 17 June, the leader of PKAMP in Baluchistan- Mahmud Achakzai - repeated the same charges in the National Assembly in Islamabad. He also said that Pakistan was interfering in the internal affairs of Afghanistan and asked the Government to withdraw troops from FATA, not to make a distinction between TTP and Afghan Taliban, and negotiate with the terrorists.        

The bottom line of the stand taken by the USA, India, GEO TV and Mahmud Achakzai is that Pakistan: 1) should abandon its fight to establish the writ of Pakistan over FATA and tribal Baluchistan, 2) to facilitate Indian plans to maintain bases in Afghanistan for clandestine operations against Pakistan, 3) to help set up and support anti Pakistan administration in Afghanistan and an Army based on Northern Alliance. Pakistan’s armed forces depend on the support of the people and sound direction by the elected administration to maintain their ability to defend the country. What is often forgotten is that defence of the country is the ‘statutory’ role of the armed forces. The military obeys the direction by elected political government until its directions make the fulfilment of their statutory role impossible.  Mahmud Ackakzai has expressed legitimate concerns but these concerns cannot become the basis of a policy. The Defence of the country is an endeavour which is opposed by the enemy by force – overt as well as covert. Defence entails cost – in lives and money. The more a country tries to save on either the cost becomes higher on both counts.

As things stand today, if Pakistan compromised on its policy to have a friendly administration in Afghanistan after NATO troops leave, there would be civil war much more bloody and destructive than the one that followed the withdrawal of Soviet troops. Pakistan would face another flood of refugees and the war would be fought primarily on the soil of Pakistan. The Pakistan Army understands that and I am sure it has briefed the new PM on the threat and the dangers. Dr Abdul Malik and Mahmud Achakzai mean well but the initiative is in the hands of the enemies of Pakistan - RAW and the CIA. Afghanistan is the base of both for clandestine operations against Pakistan. Pious hopes is not going to change that.

What can Pakistan do?

1.     Do not switch friends or change established policy. Dr Abdul Malik and Mahmud Achakzai are honourable persons; they must be treated as such. The federal government should talk softly but carry a big stick and not hesitate to use it.

2.     Terrorism in Karachi, FATA and Baluchistan is different in causes, origin, and support. Different policies and mechanisms need to be structured to deal with them.  

3.     The insurgency in Baluchistan is on its last legs. The discredited and the ousted must not be given another lease of life. Rebels who left Bugti area in the past must be settled in the Punjab and not allowed to return except for those accepted by the new leadership of Marri-Bugti tribes.

4.     The USA has begun to see the wisdom of the policy advice by Pakistan. President Karzai will not be in office by the time the American leave. Karzai is desperate and has been in touch with India to save his chair. He has been spurned by India; it will be costly for Pakistan to ignore his betrayal of his own people.  

5.     Settlement in Afghanistan involves three agreements. Pakistan must not be inhibited by charges of ‘interference’ because no other country is affected as much by the nature and terms of settlement. It must put its foot down in crucial areas:

a.     An international conference followed by a UNSC resolution to end the occupation of Afghanistan and withdrawal of troops.

b.     An agreement within the country on interim government endorsed by all the Muslim neighbours of Afghanistan.

c.      An agreement between Afghanistan, its neighbours and donor countries to provide financial assistance to Afghanistan over the next ten years.

6.     President Karzai has said that no government of Afghanistan can accept the Durand Line as the international border. We should assert there are more Pashtun in Pakistan than in Afghanistan and that there should be a referendum and allow the people to decide if they want to become a part of Pakistan or stay as a separate country. The Wakhan corridor, which used to be part of Chitral state, should be returned to Chitral.  

The enemy has scented blood with the induction of new administration in Pakistan, which is already being portrayed as unrepresentative being dominated by the Punjab. This can be ignored and the urge to include MQM or JUI to make it more representative needs to be resisted. The Punjab should act with greater confidence because the people of every province trust its leadership more than their own discredited leaders.++