Pakistan’s Security Determinants
Asif Haroon Raja
India has not reconciled to the existence of Pakistan and
strives to reduce it to the status of a Satellite State.
While Indian Congress preaches soft Hindutva behind the façade
of secularism, BJP and other extremist Hindu groups profess hard Hindutva.
Hindu extremism in India has gained political, military as well
as ideological strength and in foreseeable future fever of Hindutva is not
likely to die down.
India is strategic partner of the US, Israel, Afghanistan and is
the darling of the west. As such it will retain its diplomatic ascendency in
next ten years if not more.
India has been trying to destabilise Pakistan since 2004 with
the help of her strategic partners; and also trying to encircle it by
consolidating her presence in Afghanistan, Central Asian Republics (CARs),
building North-South Corridor linking Mumbai Port with Bandar Abbas; and
Chabahar with Afghanistan-CARs.
India is working hard to disrupt China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC), and to isolate Pakistan by tarnishing its image and spoiling
its relations with Afghanistan, Iran, Gulf States and the US.
India will not compromise on Kashmir and may agree to settle
Siachin, Sir Creek and water disputes if Pakistan forgets Kashmir.
Composite dialogue is meant to buy time and show to the world
that India is keen to restore peace and live as friendly neighbor.
India will keep playing terrorism card, Baluchistan and Sindh
cards to bleed Pakistan and keep it on the defensive.
Pakistan has remained the most allied ally of the US since mid-1950s,
in practical terms the US ditched Pakistan when its support was needed the
most.
After 9/11, Pakistan was declared a non-NATO ally but it was at
best a tactical partner for achievement of the US short term objectives.
Pakistan’s nukes are an eyesore for India, Israel and USA and
the massive covert war launched from Afghan soil was aimed at denuclearizing
Pakistan.
War on terror beefed up with propaganda/water/drone wars was
designed to make Pakistan politically unstable, socially traumatic,
economically fragile, and militarily weak so as to paralyze and exhaust it and
force it to abandon its nuclear program.
Alternatively, defame Pak nuclear program and seek UN
intervention for safe custody of nukes, arguing that the arsenal was liable to
fall in wrong hands. Or else, execute any of the prepared contingency plans to
destroy or steal nukes.
India’s Cold Start doctrine is aimed at offsetting Pakistan’s
strategic nuclear doctrine, and executing it at a time when bulk of Pak forces
had got pinned down in designated restive areas.
Afghanistan under Hamid Karzai remained aligned with India and
hostile to Pakistan, thereby created two-front threat to Pakistan. Afghan Unity
government has brought little change in its stance.
Sinister designs of adversaries of Pakistan received a huge
setback when ISAF failed to defeat Taliban and abandoned Afghanistan in
December 2014.
Turnaround of Pakistan’s sunk economy and its image because of
better governance, financial management; brilliant successes achieved in
counter terrorism have poured cold water on the sinister plans of enemies of
Pakistan.
Pakistan today is looked at with admiration and respect and is
in demand to help in restoring peace in Afghanistan and in Middle East.
Irrespective of apparently changed outlook of USA and the west,
their objective of disabling Pakistan’s nuclear program, or as a minimum
curtailing its minimum deterrence capability remain unchanged.
Having failed in their objectives through covert and overt
operations, the adversaries are now making all out efforts to mar
civil-military relations and to bring down the ruling regime so as to create
chaos. Panama Leaks could be a step in that direction.
With hostile India on its east, Pakistan can ill-afford to have
pro-India and anti-Pakistan regime in Kabul posing a twin threat to its
security.
Till such time unity regime gets out of influence of India,
reins in anti-peace elements, and cooperates with Pakistan, peace will not
return in Af-Pak region.
Only joint and collaborative efforts can tackle terrorism and
not blame-game.
It’s to be seen whether the US after abandoning Afghanistan
would forsake its declared and hidden objectives, or continues with its proxy
war to pursue its mercantile interests and to disable Pak nuclear program?
Ultimate solution to Afghan imbroglio will have to be found by
the Afghans themselves. Others can at best facilitate dialogue.
Recommendations – Home Front
Nuclear might, strong army, and
full coffers will neither make us a strong nation, nor will help in making us
morally strong and virtuous. Each one of us will have to carry out
self-accountability and put own house in order rather than finding faults in others.
Home and educational institutes
being the best training centres and reformatory laboratories, should play their
role to improve moral turpitude of contaminated society.
Our leaders must bridge
societal divides, improve governance and social justice, restore pristine
values, alleviate the problems of have-nots, integrate the divided society and
consolidate home front.
This will be possible only when
we cure cancer of corruption which is eating into the vitals of the country
like a termite, and terrorism which is jolting the very foundations of
Pakistan.
We need to reform our electoral
laws, accountability, judiciary, police and our feudal mindset.
There is dire need to refurbish
our moral fibre by following the righteous path as inscribed in the Quran and
taught by Prophet Muhammad (pbuh).
Civil- military must
remain on one page to overcome complex challenges.
Regime change or
mid-term elections as professed by some in the wake of Panama Leaks will prove
fatal for political stability, economic growth, fight against terrorism and
ongoing projects including CPEC. The system howsoever flawed must continue
while ensuring checks and balances.
Media must be
disciplined and made into 4th pillar of Pakistan rather than a tool
of our adversaries.
Recommendations – External Front
Rather than putting all its eggs in the US basket,
Pakistan should diversify its foreign policy by building ties with Russia.
Grant of ‘Most Favored Nation’ status and land
access to India through Wagah border should be linked with resolution of core
issues.
Pakistan should continue to convince the US and
Afghan government to limit India’s role in Afghanistan since it is the chief
trouble maker.
Concerted efforts be made to counter Indian
propaganda in Afghanistan aimed at poisoning the minds of Afghans against
Pakistan and allay their misperceptions.
Diplomatic pressure must
be exerted on Iran to prevent RAW from using Iranian soil for sabotage and
subversion in Baluchistan and Karachi, as has been revealed by a recently
arrested RAW officer Naval Commander KalBhushan Yadav.
At the same time,
Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project which had remained in limbo because of
sanctions on Iran to be expedited and used as a means to forge closer ties with
Iran.
Additionally, efforts be
made to remove apprehensions of Iran over Gwadar and to make the
Gwadar-Chahbahar ports supplement each other’s economic potential rather than
becoming rivals.
Pak-Afghan and Pak-Iran
security are mutually intertwined and indivisible. It is Pakistan’s
strategic compulsion to have friendly relations with both and must strive hard
for it using all its diplomatic skills.
Pakistan must further
refine its Full Spectrum Deterrence to keep India deterred. Under no
circumstance, tactical nuclear weapons capability achieved through short-range
Nasr missiles should be bottled up.
Development of CPEC and
Gwadar Port must continue with full commitment to overcome socio, politico,
economic inequities and security concerns.
Pakistan should act as a
bridge between the two ideological rivals – Saudi Arabia and Iran, and remove
their differences.
China and Saudi Arabia
are Pakistan’s most trusted and reliable friends. Friendship should be
cemented.
Pakistan should assert and exert its geo-strategic
position and significance, extract its due share and uphold its self-esteem
rather than following a self-defeating policy of appeasement.
Conclusion
To conclude I would say that Pakistan has remained under the
deceptive magic spell of the US for too long without any gains. Pakistan has neither
become a developed country, nor an Asian tiger, nor achieved security.
It has been ceding ground to win the friendship of India but
couldn’t change the mindset of Brahman rulers who have not missed any
opportunity to harm Pakistan.
Unity government in Kabul is wholly in the grip of USA and India
and will continue to prefer India over Pakistan.
Notwithstanding the need to maintain friendly relations with all
the three, this fatal affection must not be at the cost of national interests
and dignity of the nation.
Strong and united home front is the best defence against
internal and external challenges. Concept of “Unity in Diversity” should be
promoted.
Last but not least, each one of us must carry out self-analysis
and self-accountability rather than of others.
Those who say, “Not me, I’m honest” is not
telling the whole truth.
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