Musharraf is still the President: Slaughter Resumes in Pakistan
By Usman Khalid
Politics: "A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles; the conduct of public affairs for private advantage". Ambrose Bierce
It is not hard to agree with the above definition of politics; our everyday experience bears that out. That politics in Pakistan would descend into "˜conduct of public affairs for private advantage' so soon after the elections has surprised even the hard-boiled cynics. One did not require great political acumen to see that if Musharraf continues to be the President, he will make policy as he did when PML(Q) was taking the can for his disastrous economic policies and on Kashmir. Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani is surely a decent man but so was Prime Minister Jamali. Mr. Jamali was Chief Executive only in name; Musharraf made all the decisions and communicated directly with those who implemented orders thus daring the Prime Minister to confront him over issuing instructions over his head.
Musharraf has had a direct line with the Zardari camp though Rehman Malik and Tariq Aziz for a long time. That link is still in use and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani is being bypassed. That might have passed unnoticed but the way all the swings in "˜direction from the top' have been played out in public in the case of the 'estoration of the judges', the truth has come out and the nation is in a state of shock. It took two years for the helplessness of Prime Minister Jamali to become such an embarrassment that he eagerly resigned when asked to do so. It took only two weeks for the helplessness of Prime Minister Gilani to become public knowledge. And it is not at the hands of the President; it is the leader of the PPP, Asif Ali Zardari, who is calling the shots. And it is he who will have to face public wrath for the failure to fulfil the promise to restore the judges. It is hard to say if he has not noticed the public disgust and anger. Maybe he likes it this way; he thinks unpopularity is good. Musharraf's approval rating is 10 % and he is still the President. Zardari could do just as well sailing in the same well-weathered boat. But there one little snag.
There have no bomb explosions for nearly two months in Pakistan since the elections on 18 February. The insurgents held their fire waiting to see what the new government would do. They appeared satisfied with the initiatives for peace taken by the Government of NWFP. But when Mr Zardari said impeachment of the President was off his agenda, he showed them two fingers. Contrary to what he said, the ruling coalition does have the numbers to impeach the President. The bombers are back. There has been bomb explosion in Mardan in NWFP; the Vice Chancellor of the Baluchistan University was shot dead in Quetta; Attock Cement Company bus was ambushed at Hub in Baluchistan killing three of its workers; and the Sui Gas pipeline has been blown up disrupting supplies to the Punjab. Today on 28 February it was announced the Pakistani Taleban have ended negotiations with the Government and the PPP has agreed to "˜share power' with the MQM.
All the insurgent groups in NWFP and Baluchistan have at least one legitimate demand that commands some support and sympathy. Musharraf dealt with them severely while he appeased the MQM mafia. Since Asif Zardari has also decided to follow the same policy, slaughter is bound to reach the pre-election levels soon. Until now the people wondered why was Asif Zardari so eager to co-habit with Musharraf. They are bound to reach the conclusion both of them have the same objectives as the MQM: advancing India's agenda in Kashmir, Sindh and Baluchistan. MQM wants to be in government to preclude arrest and trial of its members who have committed heinous crimes of murder, extortion, looting and arson. If such crimes are overlooked merely because the MQM can disturb the peace in Karachi as it did on 12 May last year and 9 April this year, why can't the insurgent groups use violence to secure their demands some of which are even legitimate?
I have been saying for well over a year: "If Musharraf is still the President after the elections, the war for Afghanistan's liberation will be fought on the soil of Pakistan". Afghanistan and Pakistan have been like Siamese Twins since the 1979 Soviet invasion who feed on each other socially as well economically. Even the western political observers have started to understand that. For one, there is nothing left in Afghanistan to destroy except what the Americans and Indians are building now. Even the CIA finds it convenient to conclude that Osama Bin Laden (who is most probably dead) and Al-Qaida are hiding FATA region. But Mullah Omar is surely alive and in Afghanistan. Why has he not been found? It is politics again - American politics this time. Some one has to be held responsible. Since NATO troops do not get out of their bases, their operations are confined to air strikes on targets acquired by drones "“ literally by drones. No wonder they always end up destroying whole villages. More widows, more orphans, more resentment, more anger are leading to increase in the power and appeal of Taliban resistance.
Hamid Karzai has joined the chorus blaming Pakistan for providing safe haven to terrorists. On April27, he was fired upon at a military parade in Kabul celebrating the exit of Soviet troops. Musharraf, who still cannot dare being seen in public, was on TV screens on 26 April giving policy direction to the new government. He said: 1) his policies were good; it would hurt Pakistan to change them; 2) FATA is a safe haven for foreign fighters who have links with Al-Qaeda and the local Taleban support them. That was too obvious a hint to be ignored; talks ended bombing was resumed. With bombers return, Musharraf hopes to be back giving directions to the new government. He was the Chief Guest at the Prime Minister's dinner to the formation commanders; very soon he will join him presiding over cabinet meetings again. That would be better than his directions being conveyed through Tariq Aziz and Rehman Malik. I wrote three weeks ago that the honeymoon of the new government would be very short if it did not read its mandate correctly. It breaks my heart to say that it has not read its mandate correctly. One hopes it is better at reading the public mood. If it does, it must do three things immediately: 1) restore the judiciary to the situation of 2 November last year by an executive order; 2) impeach the President; 3) revoke the 17th Amendment to the constitution rather than draft a new package of constitutional amendments.
No government can establish its legitimacy in power unless it recognises the chief features of the people's agenda. It may not be able to implement that agenda but it must be seen to be resolute in pursuing it. The external agenda of the People of Pakistan is three-fold: 1) frustrate the American plan to redraw of the map of the "˜Broader Middle East' on ethnic lines; 2) pursue such policies that foreign forces are ousted and peace between ethnic groups restored in Afghanistan, and its fraternal bonds with Pakistan are underpinned by social and economic integration to transform Afghanistan from a barrier to a bridge to Central Asia; 3) recognise that Kashmir's struggle for freedom was criminally betrayed by Musharraf; Pakistan must give the people of Kashmir help and support they need.
The national agenda also includes objectives that face internal resistance. But Governments can sometimes focus on objectives that face no resistance; such crises are the product of mismanagement and require good managers to resolve. Commodity or energy scarcity and high prices are management problems the politicians are not well equipped to deal with because their personal interests usually get in the way. Building of dams, peace in tribal areas and dealing with the menace of MQM are important items on the national agenda where there is internal resistance to overcome. The Government has to prioritise. If its priorities turn out to be wrong, peace will not be restored, people will loose confidence and the country will go down the tube. Stakes are high; slaughter has already resumed; time is running out for the PPP.
The writer is Director London Institute of South Asia