Pakistan nuclear program � a monstrosity for its adversaries

Asif Haroon Raja

While the army is fighting a precarious war and is shedding blood to safeguard integrity of the country, politicians are neck deep involved in intrigues and power play. Some are squealing about more provinces while others are wailing over inequities in political and economic distribution. Some seek control over provincial natural resources and threaten to get detached from concept of Pakistan. An ethnic party in its mad lust for monopoly over Karachi is stoking ethnic tensions. Target killings have become a norm in Karachi and Balochistan. In last six months 100 political activists have been killed in Karachi, majority from two factions of MQM. 2.5 million IDPs uprooted from Malakand Division   are still to return to their homes. It is still to be seen how best they are rehabilitated and their destroyed houses and property rebuilt. Policy of appeasement to keep USA and India in good humour irrespective of the intimidating and humiliating behaviour of the duo is in vogue.

Merit has been sidelined and prized appointments made on whims and political expediency. Corruption is rampant and touching new heights. Our export bill is $17 billion and imports are worth $ 34 billion. Foreign junkets of political leaders cost the nation millions. While the country has been placed among the top ten failed states, there is brazen display of opulence among elites. In the current budget which is entirely tied to assistance promised by friends of Pakistan or IMF loans, Rs. 1.2 billion has been set aside for PM�s foreign tours and Rs. 230 million is kept for presidential tours. Rs. 645 million has been earmarked for 342 MNAs for conveyance allowance and air tickets. 90 ministers of the cabinet cost Rs. 90 crores a month.

Chaudhri brothers� eternal love for Gen Musharraf has now transformed into deep-seated hatred after learning that he is trying to split Q League and replace them to re-enter into politics after November 2009 once the two-year bar after retirement terminates. Q League already under dire straits because of 40-member forward block in Punjab and 24 dissidents in National Assembly is now on the verge of collapse. Fearing Musharraf�s comeback, PML-N has redoubled its efforts to demand his trial on multiple charges including murder of Nawab Bugti to create political space in Balochistan. Nawaz is blaming PPP leadership for protecting him. With PPP�s continuously falling graph, Nawaz�s urge for mid-term elections is getting stronger. PML-N suspects that sudden move made by Durrani to divide Punjab into three provinces has been plotted by PPP to cut to size its vote bank.

Indian leadership is of the view that Musharraf regime was better than civilian government. It developed fondness for him since he had abandoned Kashmir cause and admitted in writing that Pakistan would not allow its soil to be used by Jihadis in support of Kashmiris or elsewhere. His pledge meant acceptance of Indian allegation that Pakistan indulged in cross border terrorism in Kashmir. That way he converted freedom struggle into terrorism. By banning Kashmir oriented Jihadi outfits and allowing India to fence the LoC, he delivered a deathblow to liberation struggle in Kashmir. Under the garb of out of box solution to Kashmir dispute, he abandoned Pakistan�s principled stance resting on UN Resolutions. India has now developed liking for Zardari since he too is India-friendly and has given several statements favouring Indian point of view and seems all set to finish the unfinished agenda left behind by his predecessor. Recommencement of composite dialogue is not meant to settle unsettled issues including core issue of Kashmir, but to put a final stamp of approval on already agreed to terms. Zardari is keen to give good news to the nation which he had promised at the time of his coronation as president in July 2008. Good news is that the LoC would be accepted as soft border allowing trade and movement between two Kashmirs.

While Pakistan is keen for US facilitation or mediation on Kashmir, USA will never dare take an initiative which is detrimental to Indian interests. Its role will strictly confine to finding a solution acceptable to India. Notwithstanding highly injurious role played by Musharraf and now followed up by his successor, spirits of Kashmiris are still high and desire for freedom still throb in their hearts. Manifestation of this desire was amply seen during unarmed protest marches last summer in Sri Nagar and now again when two young Kashmiri girls were raped and killed by Indian soldiers in Shopian. Their love for Pakistan is intact as was seen on the occasion of Pakistan cricket team winning Twenty20 world cup..

Having deliberately fomented extremism and militancy in Pakistan, it is accused of manifold invented allegations. In line with their objectives Indo-US-Israeli nexus has launched a malevolent smear campaign since 2004 and the world has been fed with manufactured stories to portray Pakistan as the most dangerous country in the world. Pak army which is the custodian of nuclear arsenal is neither worried nor has raised any alarm bells or has sought any assistance from anyone for the safety of its nukes. On the contrary it has repeatedly been trying to allay motivated fears of USA and others that its safety system is foolproof. Whatever absurd stories in circulation manifest inner desire of our detractors to somehow steal our nukes. They want Pak leadership to put in an urgent request to takeaway nuclear weapons before they are lost to the Taliban. It is in line with this fanciful scenario that US analysts concoct bizarre stories and magnify Taliban threat and project our institutions in poor light.

A new story has now come to light that Indian and Israeli trainers in Afghanistan have imparted intense mission oriented training to a band of 750 terrorists belonging to Baitullah�s Tehrik-e-Taliban to carryout an attack on one or more of Pakistani nuclear installations under their direct supervision. Reportedly, modalities have been worked out with active connivance of CIA and dirty bombs have also been provided to the terrorists. The story is not new but has been made more sensational by adding spice of local Taliban and dirty bombs. Suicide bombers have already targeted ISI, FIA and anti-terror police HQ close to NESCOM building. Fake Taliban equipped with sophisticated weapons and technologies provided by their foreign patrons are already waging a war in greater part of NWFP where some nuclear installations are installed. In case such an attack takes place it would not come as a bolt from the blue. The world has already been conditioned for such an eventuality.

The idea is not to steal a nuclear weapon, which is simply impossible given the safety system in place. Real design is to create a sensation and authenticate their stance of vulnerability of Pak nukes and thus achieve multiple objectives. It would facilitate USA to move UN to either intervene and takeover Pak nuclear arsenal, or allow US to shift it to a safe place outside Pakistan, or allow permanent placement of IAEA inspectors in Pakistan to monitor nuclear activities and inspect each and every defence oriented building on the pattern of Iraq under the plea of locating and safeguarding nuclear materials. Latter option would inhibit Chinese working in various projects. In case Pakistan resists, it will be subjected to harsh sanctions which it will not be able to bear given the fact that US controlled IMF has provided lifeline to Pakistan. Pakistan nuclear program is a monstrosity for India, Israel and USA, which the trio is overly keen to defang and deprive Pakistan of its deterrence capability. Pakistan intelligence apparatus should further streamline its systems to offset such an eventuality. Pakistan should reassert its declared policy that onus of any attack on its nuclear installation would be entirely on India for which Pakistan reserves the right to react accordingly.            

The writer is a retired Brig and a defence and political analyst based at Rawalpindi and author of several books.Email: ah.raja@yahoo.com