Will insurgency end with death of Baitullah Mehsud?
Asif Haroon Raja
Baitullah came into limelight after the death of Abdullah Mehsud in July 2007 who was killed in Zhob by security forces. Within a short period of five months little known Baitullah managed to spread his influence in all seven tribal agencies of FATA and established Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in December 2007. After nominating commanders in each Agency, he then began to spread his sway in neighboring settled districts of NWFP and created his tentacle under Afridi in Darra Adamkhel. Links were established with militants in South Punjab as well. In early 2008, Fazlullah, heading TNSM in Swat got himself affiliated with TTP and declared his allegiance to Baitullah. Taliban commanders brooked no dissent and under the garb of Islam pursued ruthless policies to eliminate their opponents and to terrorize locals. TTP made Pak Army and not occupation forces in Afghanistan its chief target. Massive funds, armaments and guidance were provided by their patrons in Afghanistan to enable them to pay handsome salaries to their fighters, suicide bombers and handlers, win over neutrals and to confront the Army. Knowing their love for big money, CIA and RAW soaked them in pool of dollars to make them dance to their tunes. In order to build up the image of Baitullah, Times magazine of early 2008 placed him among 100 most influential people of the world. Newsweek described him more dangerous than Osama bin Laden.
From June 2008 onward, focus of attention of US leaders shifted towards FATA. It was described as a breeding ground of terrorists and suicide bombers where top leadership of Al-Qaeda were housed and from where cross border terrorism into Afghanistan was taking place. It was declared as the most dangerous place on earth and it was stated by Bush and later by Obama and other senior US-Nato military leaders that unless FATA was neutralized, turbulence in Afghanistan could not be controlled. Pakistan came under tremendous pressure to do more to control militancy. Pak army and ISI were accused of being linked with Taliban. Pak army was ridiculed that it was incapable of confronting extremists challenge. US military adopted an aggressive posture and drone attacks were intensified in North Waziristan Agency (NWA) and South Waziristan Agency (SWA). Angoor Adda in SWA became the chief target where a security post was plastered and a ground raid was carried out by Marines in September 2008. Reason for ire was that unlike Baitullah led Taliban, fighters of Hafiz Gul Bahadur, head of Othmanzai Wazir tribe in NWA and Maulvi Nazir heading Ahmadzai Wazir tribe in SWA preferred to wage Jihad in Afghanistan. Propaganda coupled with hostile actions aimed at justifying intrusion into FATA.
The new Af-Pak policy was formulated by USA in which the area astride Pak-Afghan border of two neighboring countries was made into single battleground. It included eastern and southern Afghanistan, FATA and Pashtun belt of Balochistan. While Pak Army was nudged to intensify its operations in Bajaur, Swat and Waziristan, US-Nato forces duly beefed up with additional 21000 US troops from Iraq were to launch the decisive hammer to eliminate all extremists elements within the dangerous battle zone. US top leaders repeatedly expressed their intention to step into FATA to hunt for wanted leaders of Al-Qaeda and Mullah Omar and exerted pressure on Pakistan to accept the plan of joint operations. Pak military leadership put its step down and made it clear that it would not accept any intrusion of foreign troops on its territory. In the wake of dangerous designs of Af-Pak strategy, Baitullah saw through the double game of USA and considered it prudent to swear allegiance with Mullah Omar and accept him as Ameer-ul-Momineen. He also forged an alliance with Maulvi Nazir, Haji Gul Bahadur and with Maulana Faqir Muhammad in Bajaur Agency. Chief rival Nazir was given Rs 3.4 crores by Baitullah to win him over.
This declaration irked USA and on March 26, 2009, FBI declared Baitullah most wanted terrorist linked with Al-Qaeda and announced $5 million head money. Earlier on, USA had declared bounty of $25 million each for Osama and Zawahiri, and $10 million for Mullah Omar. Pakistan followed suit and announced reward of Rs 50 million for Baitullah on 27 June. It had also announced reward money for 21 absconding leaders of Swat chapter of Taliban under Fazlullah. Baitullah’s inability to come to the rescue of Fazlullah, or to activate South Waziristan front because of his declining health and shrinking liberty of action were other reasons of American displeasure. His boast to attack Washington and claim that his men had undertaken terrorist attack in a town near New York further antagonized them.
His position in Shrawangai village was hit by drone for the first time on 14 February 2009, which caused reunification of two bitter rivals Maulvi Nazir and Baitullah but split off Qari Zainuddin Mehsud from Baitullah. Zain belonging to Baitullah clan joined hands with Haji Turkistan Bhittani in Tank and the two decided to jointly battle Baitullah. On 7 April, Nazir who had all along remained pro-government accused the Army of planting homing devices on local militant leaders for destruction by drones. He became antagonistic towards the Army and formally joined Baitullah camp. From that time onwards, Nazir came into the good books of CIA and Baitullah fell from grace. Since latter knew the whole game plan of USA, he had to be eliminated. The plot thickened when on 14 April, Holbrooke secretly met Gulbadin Hikmatyar, former blue-eyed of CIA. The US is still actively pursuing the option of taking moderate Taliban on board and to pitch Taliban against Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.
From the time CIA had started drones as a means to intimidate people of FATA, disrupt peace deals between Army and militants and to stoke resentment against the government, it had never targeted Baitullah’s strongholds. On three occasions, six figure grid reference of his location was given but he was not targeted. US selective use of drones against pro-government elements had become a cause of friction. Once the tables turned on Fazlullah led Taliban in Swat and Pak troops began to encircle ailing Baitullah, possibility of his capture or coming to terms with the government brightened. No sooner Baitullah’s chief rival Zainuddin Mehsud disclosed in June that Baitullah had close links with CIA, Baitullah got him killed on 23 June at the hands of his guard but at the cost of lowering his credibility. Rehman Malik offered him amnesty in case he abandoned militancy. Amidst tightening noose around Baitullah and his followers, his father-in-law Ikramuddin got actively involved in arranging a truce on government’s terms. These developments alarmed the Americans and it became essential for them to eliminate Baitullah so as to get rid of the liability and at the same time wash off perception of CIA secret alignment with him. Drone attacks on strongholds of Baitullah in June-July killed over 130 people but missed the real target.
Despite being cornered Baitullah Mehsud remained in a defiant mood and was not ready to give up fighting the military. It was when a delegation of Mehsuds visited Islamabad and tried to meet President, PM and DG ISI to assure them their loyalty that CIA lost its nerves. On 5 August it was learnt that Baitullah along with his second wife and his personal bodyguards had been killed by a drone in the house of his father-in-law Ikramuddin. Victims were cut to pieces and only heads were recovered in one piece. To dispel news about his death, his confidantes kept him alive saying that he is seriously ill and would soon be presented before the media. Americans too maintained an unsure stance about his death. Notwithstanding mixed reports, it was a well-known fact that Baitullah had kicked the bucket and was laid to rest in village Nargosi on the same day of his killing. It had become necessary for the TTP to maintain ambiguity by concealing his death till his successor was appointed.
Soon after the 5 August drone attack, Qasim the driver of Baitullah belonging to Orakzai Agency was shot dead by furious Taliban on suspicion of spying. It was however claimed that he too got killed in drone attack. Ikramuddin, a rich and influential man of the area, his son Ziauddin, his brother Dr. Saeedullah, his nephew and son-in-law Iqbal and four other close family members were taken into custody for interrogation on suspicion that they might have had a hand in leaking information to CIA and fixing a chip on the house in return for reward money. One reason of their suspicion was as to how come they had survived drone attack. Coincidently, drone attack came minutes after Dr. Saeedullah left the house, who had come to administer treatment to Baitullah. Although the captives deny, reports are that all the detainees have been put to sword. Besides reason of spying, other reason was hunt for hidden wealth left behind by Baitullah purportedly in the custody of Ikramuddin.
Baitullah’s sudden departure created leadership vacuum and led to high tension and infighting among his followers. Reasons for confusion and disarray ranged from desire for accession, huge amount of about $2-3 billion and arms stock worth over $1 billion in the custody of Baitullah, and $5 million head money. As rumor has it, two hot contenders to takeover leadership of TTP Hakimullah Mehsud and Mufti Waliur Rehman, cousin of Baitullah, fired at each other in a meeting at Srarogha village resulting in injuries to both. One report said that Hakimullah died in the shootout and injured Waliur Rehman assumed the mantle. The news proved false and was later contradicted and both found alive. However, some reliable people living in SWA still maintain that Hakimullah is dead and a phony resembling his voice has been created. Other contestants were Qari Hussain, (a cousin and close confidante of Baitullah and specialist in training suicide bombers), and Maulvi Faqir Mohammad, deputy of Baitullah. Qari Hussain is reportedly seriously wounded, immobile and out of scene. On 19 August, Faqir proclaimed himself as acting TTP chief and nominated Haji Muslim Khan, spokesman of Fazlullah as central spokesman of TTP since Maulvi Omar, on his way to SWA was arrested by security forces on 18th August from Mohmand Agency. Omar confirmed death of Baitullah. These changes were brought about without the consent of central Shura of TTP and it was obvious that it would stoke further bitterness and infighting. On 24 August, Waliur Rehman claimed that Baitullah was alive and had appointed him TTP leader two months ago.
Before the situation took an ugly turn, reportedly Afghan Taliban interceded and played a role in resolving leadership crisis. In actuality, CIA played a key role in resolving leadership crisis otherwise Faqir would never have consented to accept Hakimullah as the new leader. Waliur Rehman who till then was commander of Taliban fighters in Orakzai, Kurram and South Waziristan Agencies was persuaded to accept his leadership and be content with his appointment as commander of Mehsud Taliban in SWA. On 25 August Hakimullah announced that he had been unanimously appointed new chief of TTP by TTP Shura. He confirmed death of Baitullah but added that he had been critically injured on 5 August because of which he was in coma and expired on 23 August. It is a made up story to cover up his earlier statement that he was alive but sick.
Although visible cracks have appeared in the TTP and Hakimullah would need time, continued support from locals as well as foreign sponsors and some high profile military successes to save the fort of TTP from splintering apart, it is now up to the intelligence agencies to ensure that foreign funding and patronage is blocked. Apart from internal feuds, Hakimullah will have to remain mindful of Haji Turkestan Bhittani in Tank, Maulvi Nazir in SWA and Haji Gul Bahadur in NWA. The latter two had formed Ittehad with Baitullah, which now requires renewal under changed environments. The army needs to adopt a pro-active posture to render their movement difficult through battle of encirclement and giving them no space to reassemble and restructure and let them collapse from within.
In the wake of infighting and confusion within the senior leaders of Mehsuds, it will be advisable to adopt a wait and see policy for a little while. In all probability, there will be further splits and voluntary surrenders if well articulated psychological warfare is launched. Infighting is continuing as was evident from reported killings of 17 persons on 26 August. Lure of power and huge amount left behind by Baitullah would keep the contenders embroiled in power struggle. Jumping the gun in all likelihood would reunite the warring factions and impel them to fight last ditch battle from a single platform. Lifting of ban on political activities in FATA by the president was a wise move. Apart from undertaking development works, militant commanders need to be explained what price they have to pay for getting trapped by unreliable foreign agencies.
Maulvi Nazir who is behaving like a typical fence sitter needs to be watched. Apart from his suspicions which require to be allayed that the Army is providing information to CIA about whereabouts of Ahmadzai Wazir leaders, other reason for his disillusionment is that he could not extract favors from the Army. It is still to be seen how he responds to the new TTP leader. Gul Bahadur also has grievances. The Army did not listen to him when he wanted termination of operation against Janikhel and Bakakhel tribes in Frontier Region of Bannu. He too suspects that drone attacks on his positions are undertaken with connivance of the Army. Despite these complaints he has still not scrapped the peace deal inked in February 2009. Their genuine complaints should be addressed and taken on board to ensure early wrapping up of Waziristan battle on a winning note. Differences between two Bhittani rival groups in Tank, one led by pro-govt Haji Turkistan Bhittani and the other led by Asmatullah Shaheen Bhittani affiliated with late Baitullah group should be removed. Army should remain focussed on its main concern and avoid getting involved in distracting tactical battles.
Success in Swat should not make us complacent since militants in Swat, Bajaur, Mohmand, Kurram, Orakzai and Khyber Agencies, Kohat Frontier Region, DIK and Peshawar are still indulging in random acts of militancy. They must be kept on the run and process of rehabilitation of affected people speeded up. Given serious resource constraints, Lt Gen Nadeem is doing a good job in this regard. Hunt for Fazlullah and other wanted leaders should continue. Defamatory campaign launched by Asma Jahangir and her types to undermine image of the Army on totally fabricated charges of extra judicial killings in Swat operation needs to be blocked. Stories like discovery of mass graves and throwing down militants from helicopters are figment of imagination. We must keep in mind that so long as foreign troops remain in Afghanistan and Kabul based intelligence agencies continue exporting terrorism and propaganda themes to destabilise Pakistan; insurgency will keep simmering and security situation will remain turbulent no matter what preventive steps we may take.
The writer is a defence and security analyst based at Rawalpindi and author of several books.Email:ah.raja@yahoo.com |