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Guest journalist Ahmed Rashid assesses what the killing of a rebel tribal leader in Balochistan province means for the Baloch rebel movement and for the Pakistani government.
In his death and the manner in which it was carried out, Sardar Akbar Bugti is likely to become a martyred hero for Baloch nationalism and nationalists elsewhere in Pakistan - rather than the anti-government renegade and reactionary tribesman Islamabad would like to portray him as.

Bugti, the Sardar or chief of more than 200,000 Bugti tribesmen, was killed along with more than 35 of his followers when the Pakistan Air Force bombed his hideout in the Bambore mountain range in the Marri tribal area.

Pakistani officials say that at least 16 soldiers including four officers were killed after they went in to mop up the remnants of the Baloch guerrilla group. A fierce battle ensued which led to their deaths.

Bugti, a 79-year-old invalid who could not walk due to arthritis, is reported to be buried in the rubble of the cave where he was hiding.

The tit-for-tat proxy war between Pakistan on one side and India and Afghanistan on the other will now heat up



Rebel death sparks riot
For months, Pakistani politicians including members of the ruling party had been insisting that the military regime agree to hold talks with the Baloch leaders in order to stop what was becoming an ever-widening civil war in the province.
Several security agencies and advisers to President Pervez Musharraf, including the Interservices Intelligence (ISI) and Intelligence Bureau, asked Musharraf to talk to the Baloch leaders.

However, other advisers and the hawkish Military Intelligence advised him to crush the Baloch leaders, which includes three prominent Sardars, Bugti, Khair Bux Marri and Ataullah Mengal.

Senior politicians say that Mr Musharraf's lack of understanding about the Baloch issue, his underestimation of the growing sense of alienation in all the smaller provinces and the attack on his ego when his helicopter was fired upon by Baloch rebels last December, all contributed to his helping him take the decision to kill Bugti.

Permanent enmity
Bugti was not the leader of the mysterious Balochistan Liberation Army which has been banned by Pakistan and Britain, but he was certainly its most visible spokesman over the past three years, as the Baloch insurgency against Islamabad has grown.

The army has attempted to divide the Baloch by promising large aid grants to those tribal leaders who support the government, even as Islamabad claims that it is eliminating the Sardari system.


Pervez Musharraf may have underestimated Baloch nationalism
Baloch nationalists have long argued that while Islamabad exploits their massive gas and mineral deposits, they give little in return to the province.

Last year, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League agreed on a package of incentives for the Baloch that included a constitutional amendment giving greater autonomy to the province, but it was overruled by Mr Musharraf and the army who then vowed to militarily crush the rebellion.

The army argues that millions have been spent in development, but projects such as the building of the Gawadar port, the building of cantonments and even new roads do not necessarily benefit ordinary Baloch.

The projects are defined by the army and its national security needs, rather than through consultations with the Baloch or even the Balochistan provincial assembly. Then the projects are carried out by outside companies who give few jobs to the Baloch.

By killing Bugti, the president has now earned the permanent enmity of not just the Baloch rebels but the wider Baloch population who may not believe in taking up arms, but are still frustrated with Islamabad for its failure to develop the province.

He may have seriously underestimated the power of Baloch nationalism which has led to four wars with the Pakistan army in the past.
Nationalism within the smaller provinces has always been the biggest threat to military regimes just as it is to mr Musharraf.

The hanging of former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1979, who was a Sindhi, by an earlier military ruler has made Sindhis resentful of the army, while they have, by and large, always voted for the opposition Pakistan People's Party.

In the North West Frontier Province where Talebanisation is rampant, Pashtun nationalism is presently taking the form of political Islam.

Powerful signals
By killing Bugti, the army is sending a clear message to nationalists in other provinces as to how they will be dealt with if they rear their heads.
However, the smaller provinces are seething with resentment against continued military rule. Their sense of frustration and alienation is growing as they see the army representing only its own interests or that of Punjab, the largest province in the country.


Bugti was killed in a battle near his mountain hide-out
The army is also sending a powerful signal to neighbouring India and Afghanistan.

The army has accused India of financing and arming the Baloch rebels, while it has accused Afghan President Hamid Karzai of allowing the Baloch to train in Afghanistan.
India and Afghanistan have denied these charges at the highest level, but Pakistani officials say there is little doubt that the Indians were involved in funding the Baloch movement because of their long-standing involvement with the Baloch and the evidence that arrested Baloch rebels have provided the Pakistani intelligence services.

The tit-for-tat proxy war between Pakistan on one side and India and Afghanistan on the other, will now heat up.

India accuses Pakistan of continuing to arm and finance Islamic extremists in Kashmir and funding anti-government and Maoist movements in other parts of the Indian sub-continent. Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of arming and giving sanctuary to the Taleban and its leadership. Pakistan denies both charges.

There is an ever-deepening political crisis in Pakistan which the death of Bugti will only exacerbate.

Many people say that the country is rapidly unravelling with Mr Musharraf refusing to give clear-cut guarantees about free and fair elections next year, while he insists on running again for another five-year term as president even as he remains army chief.

Bugti's death will only add to the growing fears about the country's future and the danger inherent in a policy of killing political opponents rather than holding a dialogue with them.


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Unrest after Pakistan rebel death

The protests spread to Pakistan's biggest city, Karachi
More than 450 people have been arrested in Quetta, Pakistan's Balochistan province, in unrest following the death of rebel leader Nawab Akbar Bugti.

An indefinite curfew is in place but outbreaks of violence have also been reported in other parts of Pakistan.

Bugti, 79, was killed in a gun battle near his mountain cave hideout, officials said.

He was a key figure in the struggle for greater political autonomy and share of Balochistan's gas and mineral wealth.
His death is a major blow to rebels operating in the region - but may risk inflaming opposition to the central government, say analysts.

Heavy fighting
As news of his death spread, several hundred students from the state-run Balochistan university took to the streets in protest.




Rebel killing raises stakes
Police had to fire into the air to disperse the rioters who attacked and set fire to cars and smashed windows.

Sporadic flare-ups of violence continued in Quetta on Sunday despite the imposition of an indefinite curfew.

There were reports of similar outbreaks across the region.

In Kalat, 150km (90 miles) south of Quetta, a government building was bombed and a telephone exchange set alight, police said. No casualties were reported.


Elsewhere in Balochistan, vehicles were damaged and roads blocked by protesters, AFP news agency reported.

And the violence spread to Pakistan's biggest city of Karachi, in neighbouring Sindh province, where ethnic Balochis burned tyres, another report said.

Bugti died when his mountain cave hideout, near Dera Bugti district, was tracked down and attacked by Pakistani ground forces and from the air with missiles from helicopter gunships.

More than two dozen of Bugti's supporters are believed to have died in the heavy fighting that followed, along with a similar number of security personnel.

HAVE YOUR SAY
Bugti's demise will lead to heightened instability in the region

Faisal, Lahore


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Information Minister Mohammad Ali Durrani confirmed to Reuters news agency that Nawab Akbar Bugti had been killed, although there is no official confirmation that the rebel leader's body has been found.

Four provincial parties have vowed to continue the protests.

"The government has pushed Balochistan into a never-ending war," said Hasil Bizinjo, leader of one of the parties.

Long-running clashes
Balochistan is Pakistan's biggest province, and is said to be the richest in mineral resources. It is a major supplier of natural gas to the country.
But for decades, Baloch nationalists have accused the central government in Islamabad of depriving the province of its due.


Nawab Bugti wanted autonomy for Balochistan
Nawab Akbar Bugti - known to many as the Tiger of Balochistan - played a major role in the politics of the province for more than five decades, the BBC's Steve Jackson writes.

He was involved in earlier failed insurgencies in the 1950s, '60s and '70s but he also served in the federal government and was on occasion governor and chief minister of Balochistan.

The latest fighting between government forces and Mr Bugti's followers began after attacks by separatists on the gas infrastructure in the region.

In one of his last interviews - with the BBC's Urdu Service in July this year - Mr Bugti was asked why a peace deal between his tribes and the government had not been implemented.

"They say that I am intransigent, I don't listen to them, I don't bow before them," he said.

"They say that I should bow before them and salute them, and give up my weapons, and then everything will be all right."

His vision for Balochistan has never been achieved but the insurgency he led has been one of the biggest headaches for President Pervez Musharraf in recent years, our reporter writes.
The main question now is whether or not his death will provoke more violence from the separatists, he adds.