Who holds the key to peace? Asif Haroon Raja
Although
Pakistan became the most allied ally of the US in 1950s but this apparently
deep-seated alliance was on papers only. Practically, the US always remained
inclined towards India even when it was a camp follower of former USSR. The US
left Pakistan high dry in the 1965 and 1971 wars with Soviet backed India and
also played no role in resolving Kashmir dispute which is the bone of
contention between the two arch rivals. While India’s weaponized nuclear
program was ignored by the US, Pakistan’s nuclear program was castigated.
Pakistan had to bear with tough sanctions frequently while India was never put
under sanctions.
Pakistan’s
nuclear program has remained a chief irritant for Israel, India and USA. After
its nuclear tests in response to Indian tests in May 1998, Pakistan was marked
as a target country. 9/11 gave an opportunity to the trio to sort out the
targeted Muslim countries under the cover of global war on terrorism. The
conspirators decided to use indirect strategy against Pakistan, triggering
internal conflicts through proxy war and making the insurgents and security
forces fight to death. Direct force was to be used by India after making
Pakistan politically, economically, socially and militarily washed-out.
The
conspirators felt the need to undertake long, expensive and risky venture duly
augmented by propaganda/psychological war because of constrictions. Unlike
Afghanistan and Iraq chosen as targets, Pakistan was a very hard nut to crack
because of its resilient people, professional and fighting armed forces and
nuclear capability. Its strategic alliance with Taliban ruled Afghanistan had
provided strategic depth to the two neighbors for the first time and had
disrupted India’s plan to encircle Pakistan.
With
these constraints in view, Pakistan was treacherously befriended first by the
US and latter by its arch rival India and forced it to take a u turn on its Afghan
policy and to turn its guns inwards for self-destruction. Fear of fuming US
leaders on one hand and lure of friendship with sole super power together with
promise of generous aid was so appealing that Gen Musharraf opted to cut the
tree on which Pakistan had built its nest after huge sacrifices. Removal of
sanctions, rescheduling of foreign debts and heavy investments intoxicated our
shortsighted political leaders. They all cheered the military dictator who had
usurped power from a democratically elected government two years earlier and
chanted that he had saved Pakistan from sure ruination.
Army’s
top command also agreed with Musharraf’s contention that had he refused to
abide by the conditions of Washington, Pakistan would have been pushed into Stone
Age. They justified the change in Afghan policy on the plea that it was
impossible to fight the super power and NATO. Similar apprehensions had been
aired by the military Generals when Soviet forces occupied Afghanistan in
December 1979, but Gen Ziaul Haq over ruled their concerns and decided to
support the Afghan
Mujahideen.
Those
clamoring to hug the US didn’t think for a moment that the US had all along
betrayed Pakistan and there was no reason as to why it would not leave Pakistan
in a lurch again. They didn’t take into account that India had become strategic
partner of USA. They celebrated the signing of death warrant and happily picked
up shovels to dig their own graves. Once the Pakistan-Taliban nexus was broken
and Afghanistan occupied, rest was easy.
In
accordance with the laid out plan to destabilize, denuclearize, de-Islamize and
balkanize Pakistan, the initial flame was cleverly lit in Ahmadzai Waziris
dominated South Waziristan Agency (SWA) in 2002 and then in Mehsud dominated SWA
in 2004. That year, interior Balochistan was also inflamed. In 2006, troops
were pushed into North Waziristan Agency (NWA). By then, insurgency in
Balochistan was further intensified after the death of Nawab Akbar Bugti in
August 2006. Other five tribal agencies in FATA were also ignited in quick
succession. Thereon flames of terrorism were diverted towards settled areas of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Tank, DIK, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, Kohat, Dara Adam Khel,
suburbs of Peshawar as well as Peshawar city, Mardan, Dir, Malakand Division,
Swat and Shangla were infected with terrorism.
Lal
Masjid episode in July 2007 led to formation of Punjabi Taliban under
Asmatullah Muawia and TTP under Baitullah Mehsud. Blackwater made its entry in
Islamabad in 2008 and that year the twin cities were repeatedly struck by
suicide bombers. In 2009, Lahore was frequently attacked by terrorists under
changed tactics of group attacks. In the same timeframe, Karachi became restive
as a result of ethnic and sectarian strife and introduction of culture of
target killings. By that time US war had become Pakistan’s war. Successful
military operations in Swat, Malakand, Bajaur and SWA in 2009 broke the back of
TTP in FATA and settled areas of KP, but its patrons helped it in recouping and
regrouping in NWA, Kunar and Nuristan. TPP’s affiliates in urban centres also
survived since they had not been touched.
Since
the Army had taken a backseat in Balochistan from 2008 onwards owing to
political and international pressure, the Frontier Corps could only contain the
insurgency but couldn’t root it out mainly because of thoroughly corrupt and
inept provincial government, incompetent police and unfriendly judiciary and
media. Assisted by CIA, RAW and MI-6, the insurgency took the shape of separatist
movement. Foreign powers promoted the cause of independent Balochistan espoused
by BLA, BRA and BLF. Raymond Davis incident in January 2011 followed by
raid on Abbottabad on May 2, and attack on Salala Post in November 2011 were
all aimed at discrediting Army and ISI and clearing the path to steal the nukes
and rob Pakistan of its sovereignty.
In
Karachi, militant wings of ruling political parties intensified the spree of
target killings and the port city recorded 10-12 daily fatalities apart from
ever increasing street crimes. The ruling coalition led by PPP which was the
product of US-UK brokered infamous NRO broke all records of corruption and
incompetence and subjected Pakistan to worst energy crisis. As a consequence,
Pakistan began to die an economic death and reached the brink of economic
collapse.
Attack
on Mehran Naval Base on May 22, 2011 destroying three PC-3 Orions and attack on
Kamra airbase in 2012 damaging two AWACs were aimed at denying early warning capability
to the Navy and air force. Attacks on Peshawar airbase on December 15, 2012, on
Jinnah air terminal Karachi on June 9, 2014 and on Samungli air/aviation bases
on August 13, 2014 were designed to destroy passenger aircrafts/jets/cargo
planes/helicopters. To their utter disappointment, all attempts to weaken the
fighting capabilities of the armed forces were frustrated. Their efforts to
steal or destroy nuclear weapons were also foiled by the custodians of nuclear
facilities. Memogate scandal was the last nail to be dug in the coffin of
Pakistan, but Gen Kayani and Lt Gen Shuja Pasha frustrated the gory plan and
saved Pakistan.
Gen
Raheel Sharif is now hell-bent to rid the country of the scourge of terrorism.
Operation Zarb-e-Azb has disabled network of militants and cleared 90% of NWA.
Hideouts of militants are also being systematically destroyed in other parts of
FATA and terrorists hunted/nabbed all over the country to prevent blowback. Gen
Raheel has also impressed upon the new Afghan leadership to cooperate and help
in rooting out terrorism which is a common enemy of the two neighbors. He
reminded him that gains made in counter insurgency operations will help in
achieving regional stability and in checkmating possible entry of Da’esh in
this region about whom some whisperings can be heard. He pressed him to
urgently close down the safe havens of runaway TTP leaders in Afghanistan.
Afghan
President Ashraf Ghani’s keenness to remove distrust and forge better relations
with Pakistan, his cancelation of arms deal with India which Karzai had signed,
his request to Gen Raheel for managing Pak-Afghan porous border, training
Afghan Army and helping in peace process has undoubtedly alarmed and irritated
India. Ghani is also seeking a larger role for China as a mediator in peace
negotiations with Taliban. China is keen to increase its investment/two-way
trade and is willing to play a role in stabilizing Afghanistan. Kabul’s tilt
towards China has further vexed India.
China’s
huge investments in Pakistan and development of Energy Corridor and Gawadar
aimed at making Pakistan self reliant are not to the liking of India and USA.
Both will keep trying to disable Pakistan’s nuclear program. Extremist Modi is
a useful tool in the hands of USA to browbeat Pakistan and the former is
keeping Washington amused but his jingoism is not to the liking of corporate
world which helped him in gaining power. Indo-US nexus want to block/curtail
China’s rapidly growing influence in Pakistan and Afghanistan and hence would
like the two countries to remain in a state of uncertainty/chaos. Continuity of
war in their view would suit their interests.
The
key to peace in Pakistan and Afghanistan rests in the hands of the two trouble
creators - India and USA. Since the duo cannot be restrained, the two countries
are likely to remain turbulent for quite some time. The way out is that Afghan
regime agrees to the Taliban demand of pushing out residual force, make peace
with them and share power. More so, Pakistan and Afghanistan forge brotherly
relations and latter limits Indian presence to allay Pakistan’s security
concerns.
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