Pakistan
in the Firing Line
Asif Haroon
Raja
War against
the Soviets
Fearing takeover by the
fundamentalists, 40thSoviet Armyintervened and occupied Afghanistan
on December 27, 1979, killed Hafiz Amin and installed a communist regime under BabrakKarmal.
Pakistan could not remain unconcerned with this intervention because of
Moscow’s age-old quest for warm waters, its strategic partnership with
archrival India and 7 million Afghan refugees having barged into Pakistan. The
military regime under Gen ZiaulHaqdecided to support the Afghan Mujahideen in
their struggle to push out Soviet forces.
When the US decided to stand behind
Pakistan, it used Afghan Mujahideen as proxies and madetribal belt of Pakistan
a base of operation to conduct proxy war. The Afghan and Pakistani Mujahideen
werebaptized as holy warriors. Ronald Reagan invited key leaders including
JalaluddinHaqqani to the White House and eulogized their role profusely. 1.5
million Afghans lost their lives and as many crippled for life, but won the
war.
The US after achieving its objectives
in 1989,hastened to withdraw and left the Mujahideenin a lurch. Pakistan fell
from the US grace and was put under sanctions. America’s callous abandonment infuriated
the Mujahideen.Osama bin Laden (OBL), once the darling of CIA, was incensed
when the US established a military base in Saudi Arabia in 1990 to hit Iraq.
OBL’s Al-Qaeda started striking the US targets. In 1997, the US targeted OBL’s
camp in Afghanistan but he survived.
Militarization
of Pakistan Society
The 10-year Afghan war followed by
uprising in Indian occupied Kashmir (IOK) and Indian military barbarities
against Kashmiris militarized the Af-Pak region and gave birth to militant and
Jihadi groups. 30,000 Mujahideen gathered by CIA from 40 Muslim countries to
fight proxy war didn’t return to their respective countries. Pakistanbore the
entire brunt of fallout effects of war-torn Afghanistan, which got embroiled in
a vicious civil war from 1990 to 1994. Burden of Afghan refugees, weapons and
drugs smuggling from Afghanistanaffected Pakistan economically, socially and
politically. It gave rise to extremism, intolerance and militancy. The two
ideological rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia stoked sectarianism in Pakistan.
Political instability in the 1990s
due to extreme polarization between the two mainstream political parties PPP
and PML-N handicapped four successive regimes to confront the ill effects of
Afghan war. Punjab became the hotbed of sectarianism, while Karachi got
infected with ethnicity and violence due to MQM militancy. Peshawar became the
meeting ground of Mujahideen leaders. Wadera culture in interior Sindh and
Baloch Sardars in Baluchistan kept the provinces under developed and lower and
middle classes oppressed.
Taliban Regime
in Afghanistan
The Taliban under Mullah Omar in
their five-year rule from 1996 till 2001 enforced Islamic Sharia law stringently.
They were against western education, women freedom and foreign culture, but managed
to wipe out most vices from the Afghan society. War lords were reined in, poppy
growing, narcotics business and thefts were eliminated, and the country was
made almost crime free.
Taliban regime enjoyed cordial
relations with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and UAE, but became a monstrosity for
USA, the West, Iran and India. Central Asian Republics, China and Russia also
remained uncomfortable with the fundamentalist regime due to its linkage with
IMU and ETIM and Chechnyans.
Cordiality in Pak-Afghan relationship
was the outcome of Pakistan’s wholehearted support to Afghan Mujahideen in
their struggle to free Afghanistan and treating Afghan refugees as guests.
While Afghan war brought Pakistan more close to Saudi led GCC States, coldness
occurred in Pak-Iran relations. Influence of Iran and India had waned in
Afghanistan during the 5-year Taliban rule but it brought the two closer to
each other since both were averse to the Taliban and supported the Northern
Alliance under Ahmad Shah Masood.
Saga of 9/11
After the saga of 9/11, the US
wanting to occupy Afghanistan to achieve its geo-strategic and geo-economic
interests in the region, asked Pakistan threateningly, “Decide, whether you are
with us as a friend, or against us as an enemy”. As a friend Pakistan was to be
richly rewarded and as an enemy it was to be pushed into Stone Age. Gen
Musharraf opted for friendship. Although Pakistan was made a coalition partner,
a frontline state to fight war on terror and later a non-NATO ally, but in
reality it was listed as one of the targets. The US wanted to steal the nukes
after weakening it from within through covert war.
Invasion of
Afghanistan
Prior to invading Afghanistan on
October 7, 2001, it was strategically encircled with the help of Pakistan,
Iran, India, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.Pakistan provided air bases, airspace,
seaport, logistics routes and shared intelligence. It also deployed 70,000
troops to seal the western border. Iran lent a hand to topple its ideological
rival in Kabul and facilitated transfer of power to Northern Alliance (NA)which
it had hosted since 1995. Militaries of Iran and India trained, equipped and
launched NA ground forces to capture key cities of Afghanistan. Like Iran,
India also cultivated NA leaders including Dr. Abdullah. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan
provided airbases to the invaders. In support of NA ground forces, the US
resorted to massive carpet bombing using B-52s, daisy cutters and cruise
missiles.
Objectives
of USA
Guided by its imperialist ambitions,
the US had a set of objectives against all the regional countries including
Pakistan.For the accomplishments of its objectives, CIA, Mossad, MI-6, BND,
RAW, NDS were clubbed together at SehraNaward, north of Kabul, to conduct
covert war.
Under the garb of friendship, CIA and
FBI wormed their way inside Pakistan to instigate insurgency in FATA and
Baluchistan covertly and to find out the secret locations of our nuclear
facilities. However, main responsibility of destabilizing, de-Islamizing,
denuclearizing and balkanizing Pakistan was given to India.The ISAF comprising
military contingents from 48 countries led by US embarked upon counter
terrorism operations against Al-Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan, while
Pakistan was asked to do the same in FATA.
Balkanization
of Pakistan
The secret plan envisaged creation of
Greater Pashtunistan comprising eastern and southern Afghanistan, FATA, Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa and Pashtun belt of Baluchistan; Greater Baluchistan comprising
Baloch/Brahavi dominated regions of Baluchistanand Sistanprovince in Iran; and
Muhajirsitan in urban Sindh.
Before cutting Pakistan into four
parts, it was to be destabilized by stoking insurgencies and making Pak
security forces fight the foreign aided proxies. After sufficiently weakening it
from within, its nuclear program was to be disabled. India is now eying at
Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir because of CPEC which passes through these
regions.
False Flag Operation
In order to build a narrative against
Pakistan that it abets terrorism, India staged a drama on December 13, 2001,
which was termed as another 9/11.Attack on Indian Parliament by 4-5 terrorists
was engineered to draw further concessions from Pakistan. Pressured by India
and USA, Gen Musharraf once again caved in and banned Kashmir focused Jihadi
groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Muhammad and several other militant groups
in 2003.
Deceptive Peace
Treaty
While signing peace treaty with India
in January 2004, Musharraf gave a unilateral undertaking that he will not allow
use of Pakistani soil by militant groups for cross border terrorism in any
neighboring country. He also allowed India to fence the entire length of Line
of Control (LoC) and took steps to prevent infiltration. These steps gave a
severe blow to the freedom movement in IOK. While he bargained peace along the
LoC in Kashmir, he somehow took no undertaking from India that it will
reciprocate by not carrying out cross border terrorism in Pakistan.
Cultivation
of Proxies
While Pakistan stuck to its
commitment with India that it will not indulge in proxy war, and also dutifully
did the biddings of USA, India in collusion with its partners activated the
Afghan front and started bleeding Pakistan through paid proxies. TTP in FATA
and BLA, BRA, BLF were creation of foreign agencies while MQM was cultivated by
RAW and later by MI-6. Pakistancouldn’t question India since it had not taken
such an undertaking.
Proxy War
TTP under runaway MaulanaFazlullah
after being chucked out from North Waziristan is now based in the safe haven of
Kunar. Khalid Khurasani heading JamaatAhrar, an offshoot of TTP is operating
from Nangarhar. Daesh has been brought into Afghanistan by the three conniving
intelligence agencies to fight the Taliban and carryout subversive activities
in Pakistan. Indian National Security
Advisor AjitDoval is the coordinator. The Baloch rebel leaders in exile
conspiring to make Baluchistan an independent state are being hosted by
European countries and USA. MQM under Altaf was mandated to make Karachi
lawless and then separate it and pave way for creation of Jinnahpur.
India under Narendra
Modi
After Modi took over power in June
2014, his BJP regime maintained a highly aggressive policy against Pakistan.The
2003 ceasefire agreement in Kashmir was broken. Since then,Indian military has
been resorting to almost daily unprovoked firing and shelling across the LoC
and working boundary in Kashmir sector and drawing blood of soldiers and
civilians.The violations have escalated from 315 in 2014 to 580 in 2017. India is
now threatening to revoke Indus Basin Treaty and deny water to Pakistan,
carryout surgical strikes, attack Pakistan’s nuclear facilities, and fragment
Pakistan into four parts (statements of Modi, Parrikar Manohar, Rajnath,
Subramanyam, AjitDoval, Indian Army and Air Chiefs). It is continuing to use
Afghanistan as a base of operation to accomplish its ambitions. Egged on by USA
under Trump, India has given a fillip to its dangerous agenda.
Anti-Pakistan
Nexus
To hide their crimes, the
Indo-US-Afghan nexus has been constantly blaming Pakistan for its uncommitted
sins. The false narrative built since December 2001 is aimed at painting the
trio as victims of terrorism and Pakistan as the abettor of terrorism.
India’s Vulnerabilities
Kashmir uprising in 1989 has tied down India’s
750,000 troops in the valley of Kashmir. India is faced with 17 major
insurgencies in various parts of India, and some are over 60 years old. 800,000
Indian security forces are battling the insurgents, but have been unable to
quash any insurgency or separatist movement. Of all the insurgencies, insurgency
in Kashmir and insurgencies in the Red Corridor (nine states in northeastern
India including Naxalites insurgency), are the most dangerous and have been
declared as an existential threat to the integrity of Indian Union. Khalistan
movement in East Punjab has once again flared up and is looking towards
Pakistan for support.Out of 66 terrorist groups in India, 62 are indigenous
groups. Hindu fundamentalism has buried the farce of secularism.
Indo-US-Afghan Failures
Speedy ouster of Taliban regime made George
Bush and his team to believe that the war had been won. Obama derived satisfaction by claiming that the US
had succeeded in disrupting, dismantling and destroying Al-Qaeda from
Afghanistan, and killing OBL.They never fathomed that the war would turn
into longest war in the US history and would hemorrhage the US economy, bleed the
US soldiers and bruise the US prestige.
Although the Indo-US-Afghan nexus with the
help of proxies has spilled the bloodof 70,000 Pakistanis and incurred a
financial loss of $123 billion over the last 14 years, it has neither been able
to accomplish any of its objectives in Afghanistan nor has it succeeded in
denuclearizing Pakistan and making it a secular and a compliant state.
Taliban have control over 47% territoryin
Afghanistan and are rapidly gaining ground. US-NATO-ANSF do not have the
capability to roll them back. Writ of unity regime doesn’t extend beyond the
presidential palace in Kabul, which is also guarded by the US Marines.
India is
Lone Beneficiary
India has nothing to lose in the US
initiated war on terror since so far it has not committed a single soldier in
the war. It has very recently turned down the request of Washington for Indian
troop induction in Afghanistan. India is the sole beneficiary and is drawing all the rewards from USA, Israel
and the West on account of its readiness to break Pakistan from within through
hybrid and covert wars, fill the vacuum in Afghanistan after the departure of
US military, and to become a bulwark against China.
Strains in Pak-US Relations
Demonization of Pakistan’s
nuclear program on the pretext that it will fall in wrong hands, coupled with application
of ‘do more’ mantra by USA from 2006 onward and the US heavy tilt towards India
tensed Pakistan. Relations between the two countries frayed in 2011 as result
of arrest of US spy Raymond Davis, stealth attack by US Navy SEALS in
Abbottabad, Memogate scandal, CJC Admiral Mike Mullen namingHaqqani network (HN)
a “veritable arm” of the ISI, attack on Salala posts by NATO, and Pakistan’s
counter steps. In 2012, the US designated HN as a terrorist organization.
Strategy of blaming and scapegoating Pakistan by the US was adopted as a policy
to cover up its failings, hide its embarrassment and making excuses to prolong
its stay in Afghanistan.
Donald Trump’s Assertiveness
Unnerved
by Pakistan’s achievements in counter terrorism, economic improvement, and the
rapidly progressing CPEC well poised to uplift the fortunes of Pakistan, Donald
Trump while announcing his Afghan policy in August, marked Afghan Taliban and
HN as the main enemies. He warned Pakistanto immediately stop harboring agents
of chaos (HN) and Taliban. His threatening posture made it clear that Pakistan
was in the firing line.
Clear
indications of recommencing and expanding drone war, downgrading or revoking Pakistan’s
status as a major non-NATO ally, cutting off military and economic assistance
and application of sanctions were given by Secretary Defence JamesMattis. Marine Corps General Joseph Dunford, Chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate Armed Services Committee: “It
is clear to me that the ISI has connections with terrorist groups.” Gen Nicholson, Commander Resolute Support Group
(RSG) in Afghanistan stated that Afghan Taliban leaders are in Quetta and
Peshawar. Chairman US Senate Committee on Armed Services McCain claiming to be
knowing the street address of HN in Quetta, pressed the US military generals as
to why they have not taken action against the HN?
Trump
administration has given a green signal for sending additional 3500 troops to
augment 8500 strong RSG. Dunford stated that the current cost for the US
in Afghanistan was about $12.5 billion a year, and the new
strategy would cost an additional $1.1 billion. That means the total
cost come to $ 21.7 billion, which includes the $8.1 billion annual aid to
Kabul. This cost will mostly be met out of profits earned from drug business in
Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s Successes
in War
Pakistan security forces fought the
foreign paid and backed proxies from the front foot and achieved outstanding
results. The three restive areas of FATA/KP, Baluchistan and Karachi have to a large
extent been subdued. What Pak Army, FC, Rangers and ISI have accomplished, no
other country could achieve. It has astounded the world but depressed the
Indo-US-Afghan nexus.
Lackluster Performance
of other Prongs
Once the security forces cleared the
areas occupied by the militants and re-established writ of the government, the
diplomatic, political, economic and social and judicial prongs of the central
and provincial civil governments couldn’t keep pace with the military prong and
lagged behind. Most aspects of the 20-point National Action Plan chalked out in
January 2015 in the aftermath of APS School tragedy in Peshawar have still not
been implemented. Had civil administration, judiciary and police functioned the
way the Army and paramilitary forces performed, much better results could be
achieved. Corruption and financial terrorism came in the way of rooting out
terrorism.
Pakistan’s Policy
of Appeasement
In its earnest desire to be in good
books of USA and to keep India appeased, Pakistan made no effort to build a
counter narrative to put the record straight. It kept getting insulted and
whipped without a whimper merely tokeep the US in good humor. Gen Musharraf,
Zardari and Nawaz Sharif followed this self-defeating policy faithfully, which
proved extremely costly for Pakistan and its people.
Pakistan made no change in its apologeticforeign
and diplomatic policy even after it came to know that the so-called friends
were playing a double game. The terrorist groups, which Pak security forces are
fighting resolutely are being secretly fed by CIA, RAW and NDS.
Pakistan
foolishly remained in diffident mode and didn’t resort to strategy of offensive
defence to put fear into the hearts of the enemies hell-bent to dismember
Pakistan. It kept responding to the American mantra of ‘do more’ and getting
bled, and refrained from making use of the robust long arm of ISI to deliver a
counter punch for fear of getting declared a terrorist state. The hands of ISI
were kept tied, while one hand and one leg of the security forces chasing the
faceless enemy were also tied to minimize collateral damage.
ISI
can easily exploit some of the violence prone regions of India but has been
restrained.Resultantly, ISI could operate on home soil only, while RAW and NDS
assisted by CIA, MI-6 and Mossad made full use of paid proxies in Pakistan
freely and without fear of reprisal actions in India and Afghanistan.
Pakistan leadership has not taken advantage ofits
strengths.Resilient Pakistani society has not been overawed by tens of hundreds
of terrorist attacks, drone attacks and Trump’s fire and brim rhetoric.Social
problems emerging out of poverty, shortages of daily commodities, prolonged
load shedding, joblessness and lack of social facilities have not disheartened
them. The armed forces are more battle inoculated and hardy to fight both
conventional and insurrectional wars for prolonged periods. Pak Army and ISI
are rated as the best in the world while no one doubts the proficiency of PAF
which is par excellence. Pak Navy is defending the sea and coast line with
resoluteness.
As
long as Pakistan leadership will remain under the spell of USA, it will remain
handicapped and will desist from usingISI’s long arm to hit back at the
offenders in their home ground with impunity, or to defy the Indo-US
browbeating and blackmailing tactics. Till such time such a recourse is
undertaken, India backed by USA will keep bleeding Pakistan. Objectives behind
this slow bleeding game is to exhaust and demoralize the security forces, cause
pain socially, destabilize Pakistan politically, weaken its economy, make it a
failed and a compliant state.
Till
recent, Pakistan had more influence over the Taliban than any other country
involved in Afghanistan. Today, Pakistan’s influence has drastically reduced
and that of Russia, China and Iran considerably increased. Russia and Iran are
supplying arms and funds to Taliban. Yet, the guns of the US are trained on
Pakistan only. On one hand Pakistan is told not to have any linkage with
Taliban and on the other it is pressed to bring them on the negotiating table.
Pakistan’s Diplomatic Offensive
People
of Pakistan were pleasantly surprised when for the first time the new leadership
and the parliament stood up to the American challenge boldly and rejected the
Trump’s stance. Gen Qamar Bajwa gave a firm message that there were no
terrorist groups or safe havens in Pakistan, Pakistan has done enough, it
cannot fight Afghanistan’s war and it is now the turn of USA to do a lot more
in Afghanistan. Moral support from China, Russia, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia
further bolstered Pakistan. PM Abbasi delivered a well-articulated speech in
the UNGA and held a productive meeting with Vice President Mike Pence. Pakistan’s
ambassador to the UN MaleehaLodhi gave an appropriate response to Indian diatribe
by terming India as the mother of terrorism.
Pakistan’s
Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif extensively interacted with the US leaders in New
York and is now again on a visit to Washington. He has explained the position
of Pakistan forthrightly, which is seen in poor light in USA, thanks to the sinister
efforts of Indian and Israeli lobbies and anti-Pakistan US Congress Senators.
He pressed the right buttons while amplifyingups and downs in Pak-US relationship,
the latter’s role in promoting Jihadism and extremism in the region and leaving
Pakistan alone to burn in hell. While highlighting the successes of Pakistan in
counter terrorism, he candidly pointed out the weaknesses of the US in
Afghanistan and that of the Afghan leadership, and Indian interference in
Baluchistan. He angrily complained about the US hollow allegations saying this
was not the way a 70-year old ally should be victimized. He rejected their
allegations. He conveyed that unless the
same level of success is achieved in (Afghanistan), long lasting
peace in the region will remain out of reach.
While
our foreign minister was still in Washington, Gen Qamar Bajwa proceeded to
Kabul and held a productive meeting with Ashraf Ghani which has to some extent
lowered the ever rising tensions between the two neighbors. Hamid Karzai’s
startling disclosure that the US is aiding Daesh in Afghanistan has created
ripples. Gen Bajwa will next visit Tehran as a follow up of visit of Khawaja
Asif.
Mixed Signals
It
looked as if Pakistan’s diplomatic offensive and Asif’s interaction had helped
in mellowing down the hawkishness of the US and frowns had been replaced with
usual smiles. It was naively thought that the US has climbed down from the high
horse and has agreed to cooperate and address Pakistan’s genuine security
concerns. However, certain statements by hawkish leaders have once again activated
alarm bells in Islamabad.
Mattis stated
at a Houseof Armed Services Committee hearing: “We need to try one
more time to make this strategy work with them, by, with and through the
Pakistanis, and if our best efforts fail, the president is prepared
to take whatever steps are necessary.”
This
statement of giving another chance to Pakistan to cooperate and do its bidding
is loathsome. It is clear that the US has lost patience and is turning up the heat
by plying the role of a tough cop. It has manufactured an excuse of Pakistan
providing safe havens to ’agents of chaos’, while the real reason of its
enragement is the CPEC. This can be gauged from Mattis statement that the US
opposes China’s One-Belt-One-Road project since it passes through disputed
territory in Pakistan (GB and AJK). He spoke Modi’s language. NSA H R McMaster
maintained a hawkish posture.
Secretary
of State Rex Tillerson followed by Mattis are visiting Islamabad end of this
month to step up the tempo built by Trump. Their main reason to give Pakistan a
last chance is to keep its logistics supply routes open. Increased US-NATO
forces, ANSF, TTP and Daesh need replenishments to fight against Taliban and
Pakistan. The US want to pitch Pak Army against the Taliban and HN.
Word of Caution
Induction
of 3500 additional US troops in the inferno of Afghanistan will not enhance
America’s capacity to turn the tide and convert defeat into victory. The US has
no intention to do so since boots on ground strategy has not been revived. ANSF
doesn’t have the ability to defeat the Taliban. TTP, Baloch rebel groups and
MQM have turned into liabilities. AdditionalUS troops would beef up the
security of 8 military bases and impart special operations training to Special
Forces of ANA.
Daesh
that was established at Nangarhar in mid-2014 through joint efforts of RAW-CIA,
has been provided another base at Tora Bora. Its targets are Taliban and
Pakistan. CPEC has now been assigned as a new target and its fighters will be
deployed in WakhanCorridor to disrupt CPEC. Additional US troops would be
imparting training of Daesh (IS Khurasan State) as well.
Need for Re-assessment
We
need to re-assess our decision to continue fighting war on terror with no end
in sight. Should we fight our way or fight as dictated by USA? By now, we
should be clear about our friends and foes. Is the US really sincere in eliminating
terrorism and restoring peace in Afghanistan or otherwise? Why the US forces
are occupying Afghanistan for the last 16 years and still not giving timeline
for their exit? For how long our leaders will let the US exploit Pakistan to
serve its selfish interests and let the US leaders insult Pakistan brazenly?
Why we are in utter confusion with no strategy how to get out of this bloody
war? Military operations are not the remedy. These have intensified extremism
and terrorism and strengthened non-state actors. There is no counter narrative
to defeat Indo-US-Afghan narratives or the narrative of the extremist groups.
Way Out
Defining
our red lines clearly, issuing firm drone policy, speeding up western border
management, rejecting the US aid, not bowing to pressure tactics, choking the
supply lines if required, bridling hysterical social and electronic media and
snakes in the grass promoting foreign agenda,can help in thwarting the most
dangerous plan hatched against Pakistan.
Pakistan
should forge an alliance with peace makers (China and Russia)and not with war
mongers to help in restoring peace in Afghanistan. Since Iran is antagonistic
to Daesh, it can also be taken in the peace loop.
The
only way to take the sting out of India’s cross border terrorism and
belligerence is to pay it in the same coin by activating the long arm of ISI.
Political polarization must end and opposition
parties should shun negative and selfish politics and cooperate with the
government to meet the looming external and internal security challenges that
have overshadowed socio-economic challenges. Political and religious parties can
help in unifying the nation, which is need of the day. Civil-military will have
to be on one page in these critical times to find a way out to come out of the
inferno of war on terror. United we stand, divided we fall.
Mitigation of root causes will cure
the menaces of extremism and terrorism and not the prescription of sledgehammer
prescribed by George Bush, Obama and Trump.
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