US-NATO parting kicks to people of Afghanistan

Asif Haroon Raja

Soon after coming to power, Obama approved sending additional 21000 troops to Afghanistan in March 2009. Idea was to use maximum combat power to reverse the rising power of Taliban who had gained influence over nearly 80% of Afghan territory. Failing to make any progress against resistance forces in Helmand and suffering heaviest casualties as well as reverses such as in Nuristan province, another troop surge of 30000   was approved by Obama by the close of the year in response to personal request from Gen McChrystal. At the same time withdrawal date was also announced. Purpose behind the second troop surge is to deliver parting kicks to people of Afghanistan before departure. The US wants to win important battles of Helmand and Kandahar which in their assessment would break the back of resistance forces. Kandahar in their view is the heartland of Taliban and its fall will render them weak. It will then become easier for the US to negotiate with the Taliban from a position of strength and force a political solution of its choice.  

After two troop surges, the ISAF has recommenced high scale operations in southern Afghanistan and plans to extend towards eastern Afghanistan so as to either eliminate all irreconcilable forces or push them into Pakistan. It also plans to win over moderates and pitch them against extremist elements. US-NATO forces are trying to emulate Pakistan’s example of Swat in Helmand and later of South Waziristan in Kandahar.

Operation Moshtarik was launched in Marjah and connected Nad Ali, towns within Helmand province, last January in which a 15000 strong combined force of US-British-ANA troops took part and cleared it of Taliban influence. One of the reasons of launching a big operation in Marjah was to deprive the Taliban of the income being generated through drug trade. The US doesn’t want anyone else to share profits accrued from this lucrative business. Opium and uranium deposits are two prime attractions for repeated attacks on Helmand. 

Its occupation doesn’t mean that Marjah has been cleared or Helmand Province as a whole has been freed of Taliban control. Marjah is a small town known for drug trade and having heroin processing facility. Other districts like Washir, Dishu, Baghran, Sangin and Musa Qila are more important which are yet to be neutralized. Sangin in particular is restive and where maximum casualties of foreign troops have taken place. Resistance forces as a policy avoid pitched battles and rely mostly on usual hit and run tactics and making maximum use of roadside bombs and mines. Maximum toll of fatalities of coalition troops has been on account of locally manufactured IEDs.

Helmand province is the insurgent hotbed and the heroin capital of the world. Efforts are in hand to develop this province and create greater job opportunities and introduce radical improvements to transform the under developed province into a modern one. Idea is to win over hearts and minds of the locals and divert them from militancy towards peaceful life. Lot of development work has already been done in the capital town Lashkar Gah where new road infrastructure, hotels and shopping centres are being constructed and there is greater hustle and bustle of life. Poppy elimination is another area on which a special drive has been launched. Locals are offered wheat seeds and fertilizer free of cost as an incentive to discourage them from sowing poppy.

With two troop surges and easy victory in Marjah, military commanders of ISAF are feeling more optimistic about next battle in Kandahar. They are confident that they will be able to hand over charge of Helmand and Kandahar to Afghan National Army (ANA) by end of this year and thus not only break the back of Taliban but force them to come to negotiating table and impose a political solution of their choice. By mid 2011, the US hopes to hand over bulk of provinces to ANA and be in a position to commence graduated troop withdrawal. In other words, the US desires the game it started in Afghanistan in October 2001 to end in its favor. It wants the exit to be on its terms, that is, it should give an impression that the US has not lost the war but has decided to voluntarily abdicate. It also wishes to leave behind US friendly regime willing to serve US interests in the region. For this reason the US continues to back up unpopular Karzai even after he won controversial election through massive fraud and presides over corrupt and inefficient regime.

Optimistic assessment looks good on paper but not on ground. The US converted its victory over Afghanistan into a losing battle because of its flawed policies. Now that it has decided to quit, it wants to reverse the order by converting defeat into victory. In the first case when the US enjoyed all the advantages, it had relied entirely on its military muscle; even now when it has become economically, politically and militarily weak, it intends to do the same with slight modification of befriending the reconcilable Taliban and reintegrating them. Emphasis is however still on use of brute force. 

The US technological and military superiority would have been of consequence had it duped resistances forces and lured them to come out in the open and fight face to face pitched battles. Appreciating their limitations in positional war, the Taliban are rightly resorting to guerrilla tactics and are not pushed for time. Having learnt that foreign troop’s withdrawal would commence in a year’s time, they would prefer to lie low till then. What concerns them the most is public support which till now is on their side!

Unless Helmand is fully stabilized and people won over, it may not be possible for the coalition forces to undertake next offensive in Kandahar planned in June-July this year. Outcome of operations in Helmand is therefore critical and will set the pace for future undertakings.                     

So far coalition forces have met with little success to gather support of people of Helmand since they have already spilt too much of blood. Excessive collateral damage inflicted upon the Pashtuns as a result of ruthless bombardment by US-NATO pilots and trigger happy troops for nine years has germinated deep hatred in them. With such level of animosity, it will be erroneous to expect that majority of Pashtun fighters as well as non-fighters would trust USA and fall prey to its inducements. It is also absurd and hypocritical to invite the Taliban to join the puppet regime of Karzai and at the same time launch an offensive to kill them and destroy their homes and property.

The ANA is non-Pashtun heavy and anti-Pashtuns while the policemen are corrupt and addicted to opium and cannabis and hated by people. One in every four combat soldiers quit ANA during the last year. High rate of desertion is another cause of concern for the US. Absent without leave (AWOL) cases are also on the increase. Due to high rate of AWOL, combat strength on duty remains 26000 out of 38000 (19% absentees). Gen McChrystal called in his August 2009 strategy paper for increasing ANA to 134000 by October 2010 and ultimately to 240,000. To expect the two outfits to do any good and win over the locals will be unrealistic. It will take another 1-2 years intense training to make the ANA battle worthy and perform independently.       

Surge in Afghanistan has widened the troops to resources ratio. Several American forward operating bases are experiencing food and water shortages. At Camp Mike Spann some soldiers were forced to skip up to three meals a day, and forbidden to eat Meals Ready to Eat (MRE) unless on evening mission to save on lack of available rations. Already the foreign troops are suffering from multiple stress traumas and are in low morale. Lack of comforts would further dip their morale.    

The Taliban are sticking to their guns that there will be no peace talks before the withdrawal of foreign troops from their country. Karzai has requested them to drop this condition since in his view; initiation of talks with Taliban would quicken the pace of US withdrawal. What he means is that USA wants face saving to convince its home audience that it pulled out under a mutually agreed accord and on a triumphant note. Already some important members of Taliban Shura are in contact with Karzai, while Gulbadin has expressed his readiness for talks without taking a hard line stance of no talks before withdrawal of foreign troops. Weakening of Tehrik-e-Taliban in Pakistan (TTP) by Pak Army is another factor which is a setback for Afghan Taliban. Mullah Omar would strive to keep TTP intact since the two entities provide strength to each other.     

An international conference in London attended by representatives from 70 countries gave a go-ahead to peace plan aimed at re-integration of Taliban. Given the strenuous efforts put in by Karzai regime and USA to win over reconcilable Taliban and Pashtuns including Gulbadin and having made some progress, there is a possibility that Mullah Omar and Haqqani network may soften their stance and agree to sit on the negotiating table. This will however be subject to US shelving its plans to deliver parting kicks and also giving exact timeframe by which the last US-NATO soldier would leave Afghanistan. At the moment it appears that the US after a short reprieve has again started to exert pressure on Pakistan to launch another major operation in North Waziristan particularly after Faisal Shahzad’s arrest in New York and his alleged linkage with Waziristan militants, and Hakimullah’s threats to carryout terrorist attacks in US cities. It has again started to sing sickening ‘do more’ mantra much to the delight of India.