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Operation in North Waziristan can be delayed but not abandoned
Asif Haroon Raja
In the wake of weak governance, rampant corruption, weak economy, messy political situation and growing incidence of terrorism, Pakistan is being described as a failed state incapable of protecting the nukes. Western and Indian media publish stories based on half-truths and lies regularly to create an impression that everything is topsy-turvy in Pakistan and its fragmentation under the burgeoning weight of problems is a forgone conclusion. The world has been conditioned through an orchestrated media campaign that Pakistan is the epicenter of terrorism, FATA the most dangerous place on earth, Afghan Taliban Shura is housed in Balochistan and Al-Qaeda leadership in FATA, segments of Pak Army and ISI are in cahoots with Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda, ISI is the chief sponsor of Lashkar-e-Taiba, Pak nukes are unsafe and vulnerable to theft by militants, Pak nuclear facilities have become vulnerable to sympathizers of religious extremists working in atomic plants.
Fresh allegations are arbitrarily added to the lengthy concocted list at the cost of ignoring real challenges. Hillary Clinton has further upped the ante by saying that some elements in Pak Army have all along known the whereabouts of Osama and Omar. During her last visit to Pakistan she had stated that Al-Qaeda leadership had shifted to FATA in 2002 and it was inconceivable that Pakistan didn’t know about it.
If true, why the US kept quiet about it for so long and why it has been stating all these years that Osama is probably somewhere along the region of Pak-Afghan border belt? FATA was penetrated by CIA and FBI agents in 2002 and later by RAW agents; umpteen numbers of outposts were established. Spy drones had started surveying the area from 2004 onwards and after sometime Blackwater also became operative. FATA was put under microscopic scrutiny of satellites and imagery. Massive hunt had been launched by multiple intelligence agencies all along the border belt to hunt Osama. Al-Qaeda operatives and anti-US elements in Waziristan are being targeted by drones based on intelligence provided by their own sources.
So how come, Osama allegedly residing in FATA could not be located by USA for all these years? The only possibilities are that either the most wanted man was dead and kept alive out of expediency, or was in the custody of CIA and was being used to keep Pakistan on the leash and to justify its continued stay in Afghanistan, or US intelligence agencies are inept.
Going by the logic of Hillary Clinton that it is difficult to believe that Pakistan military leadership didn’t know the existence of Al-Qaeda leadership in FATA since 2002, how should Pakistanis get convinced that RAW is undertaking covert operations from Afghan soil without the knowledge of USA. Why should we accept the tainted logic of USA that India is no threat to Pakistan when over 70% of Indian military might is poised against Pakistan and both civil and military leaders do not miss an opportunity to hurl threatening statements? Is it not true that TTP was CIA’s creation and is being fed by CIA, RAW, RAAM and Mossad from Kandahar-Jalalabad?
It will be recalled that once Pak Army gained complete success in Swat and was busy consolidating its gains, intense pressure was applied on Pakistan to start another operation in South Waziristan (SW). No sooner operation Rah-e-Nijat was launched in SW; ISAF promptly removed all its border check posts to allow safe movement to Afghan Taliban across the border. When the latter didn’t come to the rescue of Mehsuds it caused immense frustration to the plot makers.
Soon after successful operation in SW launched in October last, drummed up as mother of all battles and main bastion of militants, the US lost interest in that region and started focusing on North Waziristan (NW). Intense pressure was mounted on Pakistan to launch another major operation in NW but it was warded off by Gen Kayani on the plea that his forces had already got overstretched and had employed 150000 troops in Malakand Division, Swat, and several tribal agencies of FATA at the peril of lowering combat strength on eastern border.
It was argued that unless gains made in Swat and SW were consolidated, political administration installed and rehabilitation and development works accelerated, it would be unwise to open another front. He said that notwithstanding that back of TTP had been broken, but runaways had taken refuge in Orakzai, NW, Bajaur, Mohmand and Khyber Agencies wherefrom they were still carrying out random attacks and that troops were keeping all the trouble spots in check. He added that while Kurram Agency was rife with sectarian war, even SW had not been fully neutralized since displaced persons housed in Tank and DIK were yet to return to their homes to resume normal activities.
Pentagon and NATO commanders understood the logic given and expressed satisfaction over spectacular gains made, but hawks within US Administration, Congress and State Department mostly influenced by Jewish and Indian lobbies in pursuit of their sinister designs kept up the pressure on Pakistan by reminding that aid under Kerry-Lugar Bill will be conditional to progress achieved on terrorism. They ignored Pakistan’s economic and human losses and that Pakistan urgently needed financial resources and military equipment to fight the war.
CIA, RAW and Blackwater kept up with their secret games to fuel terrorism particularly in NW to provoke Pakistan to jump the gun. Apart from intensifying drones attacks, several shady groups like Asian Tigers comprising mostly Punjabi militants were instigated to make efforts to break peace accord between Gul Bahadur and security forces and to keep instigating TTP elements. Presence of some elements belonging to Haqqani group in NW and its tacit understanding with Pakistan also irked US and were targeted by drones. It was in the backdrop of their keenness to overstretch Pak Army and to let it get pinned down in several regions that kidnapping of two former ISI officers and British journalists by Asian Tigers and beheading of Khalid Khwaja together with Times Square incident and attack on Ahmadi worship places and Jinnah hospital in Lahore fitted into the scheme of things.
Hopes are now being pinned on the hypothesis that operation in NW will antagonize Gul Bahadur led Othmanzai Wazirs, Dawars, Haqqani group, Punjabi Taliban and will propel Afghan Taliban to join the fray. They also hope that Maulvi Nazir leading Ahmadzai Wazirs in SW which has so far remained neutral will also join in, thus easing pressure on Mehsuds and enabling them to regroup and put up a joint front against the Army. Such a development will be ideal for the club of wicked in Kabul. India having again worn the mask of friendship will instantly heat up the eastern front to pose a dilemma on Pak armed forces.
Presently Pak armed forces are well balanced to fight war on terror as well as cater for Indian threat. Recently concluded largest ever exercises Azm-e-Nau in which army and air force took part was an indicator that operational fitness and resolve of armed forces are on a very high level. Rah-e-Rast and Rah-e-Nijat operations involved almost corps size forces in each sector. It will require another corps effort to mount an operation in NW where reportedly militants belonging to several groups are operating. Already 70,000 troops have been shifted from the east towards western regions to fight militants. Pulling out two more divisions will be at the cost of weakening our defensive effort along eastern border.
Notwithstanding US verbal assurances, which have always proved illusive, Indian threat cannot be overlooked. Armed forces operational readiness and capability to repel Indian aggression deters India from undertaking any venture. It has therefore impelled Pakistan’s adversaries to weaken its armed forces from within, which also stand guard on nukes. Ways are being devised to keep almost three corps in northwest and a corps in Balochistan fixed and render eastern front weak.
Our leaders in the grip of Washington can only delay operation in NW for a while but cannot abandon it. I am sure Gen Kayani has a plan up his sleeve to tackle NW his own way without compromising Pakistan’s security.
The writer is a retired Brig and a freelance defence and security analyst.
Operation in North Waziristan will not eliminate terrorism
Asif Haroon Raja
War on terror against Muslims was the brainchild of American Jews and neo-cons and executed by George W. Bush administration. The war was fought by US led coalition forces and Pakistan security forces and counseled and guided by US-NATO military, Pentagon, CIA-FBI combine, Hamid Karzai led Northern Alliance regime in Kabul, Maliki regime in Baghdad, and RAW, Mossad, MI-6, RAAM. Pakistan which was treacherously made the frontline line state was sidelined in policy matters.
By the time Obama took over from Bush in January 2009 security situation in Afghanistan had turned chaotic and circumstances in Iraq were unsatisfactory. However, outgoing US leadership deceptively portrayed to the world that war in Iraq had been won and it was Afghanistan which required further grinding. In view of heightened anti-Americanism, Obama used his color and half-Muslim background as a deceptive weapon to create a wedge between Muslims by trying to win over moderates in Muslim world through sweet talk and false promises, which he never meant to honor.
Indo-Israeli lobbies once again prevailed upon new US leadership to review its war policy. In their view Pak-Afghan border region had turned into the hub centre of terrorism and without eliminating the heartland, terrorism would never get defeated. The US was advised to shift centre of gravity of war to Afghanistan by dispatching additional 21000 troops from Iraq, frame a new Af-Pak policy and focus entirely on Pak-Afghan border region. Irreconcilable Pashtuns on both sides of Durand Line and Pakistan as a whole were to be bled white and eliminated. Egged on by the thought of victory, the US became more assertive and demanding towards Pakistan. It was only when the operation launched in Helmand in July 2009 failed miserably and coalition forces suffered heaviest casualties that reality overtook fiction and alarm bells were sounded by Gen McChrystal.
NATO commanders had already predicted that Afghan war had almost been lost and victory was not possible. Rising demand from home audiences in USA and western countries for ending the futile war and return of soldiers to their homes together with fast melting economy of USA and low morale of coalition troops were some of the factors which impelled Obama to reluctantly cede to Gen McChrystal’s request for additional troops. To appease the opponents of troop surge, he added that troop withdrawal would commence from mid 2011 onwards.
Having made up their minds to exit, the big question arose whether coalition forces would be in a position to withdraw safely and that too gracefully given the rising strength of resistance forces and their heightened level of anger against foreign troops who had wrought havoc upon them for the last nine years. Pathetic state of affairs of Afghan National Army and the police and loss of credibility of Karzai regime due to poor governance and corruption scandals were other factors that worried them. The Indo-US-Israeli nexus could not make any worthwhile gains in their secret efforts to break Taliban-Al-Qaeda alignment and to divide the Taliban. Peaking of anti-Americanism throughout the Muslim world was yet another worrying factor which could not be ignored.
It was amidst mounting unrest and the US running out of options that it became conscious of the worth of Pakistan. Bogged down in the marsh of Afghanistan, it was Pakistan that could possibly pull it out. Having recognized the significance of Pakistan, the US officials grudgingly put a check on their haughtiness. Having drubbed Pakistan on various accounts and pushed it hard to do more; the US leaders ceased its offensive policy in February last and apparently became considerate. Praises were lavishly heaped on Pakistan for the good work done by Pakistan in fighting war on terror and rendering huge sacrifices. Pakistan was assured its grievances would be attended to genuine needs met. Strategic dialogue was held with Pak officials in Washington to bridge the trust gap. Another round of talks will be held in Islamabad in September.
In the wake of pledges made, analysts in Pakistan projected Pak-US relations in positive light and it was generally opined that coming times would witness much improved ties. This change in US attitude had not occurred on account of moralistic reasons or that its conscience had become alive, but due to rapidly deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. Since Obama had declared the withdrawal date of coalition troops from Afghanistan, the US was pressed for time. Given the obtaining situation, safe exit seemed difficult without the active assistance of Pakistan. Above all, their plan to first weaken the Taliban through use of force and dividing their ranks and then negotiating with them was not possible without Pakistan’s cooperation.
After a very brief spell of goodwill and understanding the US has reverted to its old track of two-faced policy, one face threatening and coercing Pakistan and the other eulogizing good efforts of the Army and expressing encouraging words. Hillary Clinton’s vitriolic statement in the wake of Times Square incident came at a time when it was being perceived in Pakistan that the US had changed its heart for the good of Pakistan. Faisal’s case is being stretched and sensationalized by trying to find his connection with Pakistani Taliban in North Waziristan (NW). Hardly had Pakistanis begun to get over Hillary’s threat when Washington Post, a mouthpiece of US regime said that the US military leaders were reviewing options for a unilateral strike in Pakistan if there was an attack on American soil emanating from FATA. Ground assault is being contemplated against suspected target in addition to ongoing drone strikes.
Bruce Riedel has urged US Administration to provide more arms and technological assistance to Pakistan and then ask it to do more. He said US offensive options against Pakistan in current timeframe are severely limited since military option is impracticable in the backdrop of Pakistan having nukes and the will to defend; he adds that application of economic sanction may not be possible since more than three-quarter supplies to US-NATO troops in Afghanistan pass though Pakistan Territory. He contends that US dependence on supply routes gives Pakistan a lot of leverage on the US. In his view maximum use of drones is the only viable option available. Thus far, 43 drone attacks have taken place in Waziristan with bulk in NW.
Hawks within power centres of the US advocate liberal use of drone attacks in all parts of Pakistan. They argue that considering the miserable plight of Pakistan, its rulers have no option but to do Washington’s bidding. Riedel suggests that unilateral action by US military would be justifiable in case Pakistan doesn’t agree to launch an operation in NW, but he hastens to add that it wouldn’t be practical. In his analysis recommended course is to keep pressing to do more. David Kilcullen, Andrew Exum and Gen Petraeus however disagree with use of drones saying it is making things more complicated since majority of victims are innocent civilians. From 2006 to 2009, out of 700 killed, only 14 were terrorists.
The US softness towards Pakistan remains proportionate to latter’s ability to deliver in counter terrorism. As long as Pakistan is productive and remains useful to US for the service of its interests, it will be subjected to a mix of reward and punishment to keep it on its toes. The day it loses its utility value and becomes a liability, carrot will be withdrawn and only stick used. Whenever it becomes a bottleneck or a danger to its regional interests, America will not refrain from using the military option either singly or in concert with India and Afghanistan. Expansion and training of Afghan forces by US-Indian trainers are not designed to counter internal threat only but also to be in a position to pose a threat on Pakistan’s western border.
Apparently NW has become the main concern of the US but in actuality it is not so, since the plot makers know that terrorism will not get eliminated after a successful operation in that region. They have already lined up several other battlegrounds for the future to push the Army from one killing ground to the other till it gets fully pinned down, mauled and exhausted and its military hardware becomes technically unfit due to excessive use. That will be an ideal time to close the tap of military aid in which the US is adept so as to deprive armed forces of vital spares to fight a regular war.
Duplicitous policy of USA has kept our timid rulers in harassed and confused state. Instead of taking serious note of its odious tirade and dangerous designs, they are all the time worried how to keep the US mollified. This submissive policy encourages USA to remain on the offensive.
The writer is a retired Brig and a freelance defence and security analyst.
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