Towards Unfolding of AfPak Policy

By

Dr. Raja Muhammad Khan

Whereas this is an established fact that, two Afghan Provinces, namely; Kunar and Nuristan have become the “Safe Havens for Terrorists”, who as a matter of routine attack and target the Pakistani security forces, installations and innocent civilians.  It is unclear as to who finance, abet and harbour them. We cannot doubt Afghan President, Mr. Hamid Karazai, who has little or no control over the Afghan territory (not over capital Kabul even), though he once threatened Pakistan to internally destabilize it like Afghanistan. However since he could not provide security to his own family, as he lost his half-brother in a recent attack, thus accusing him for these hideouts and attacks on by ‘Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan’ (TTP) or Afghan militants would be unfair.  For the Government and the people of Pakistan, this concentration of TTP is indeed a matter of concern. As per DG ISPR, these hideouts are housing some of very “high level terrorists” like; Fazlullah, Faqeer Muhammad, Abdul Wali, Hakimullah, etc. He categorically said that, “the recent terror attacks from Afghanistan have testified our words; we have already voiced our concern over the pull out of NATO and Afghan forces from these areas.”

These terrorists of TTP and other militant groups from Afghanistan have a strong financial backing. Their leadership include the top hard core militants who once attained full control over Swat, Malakand and other tribal agencies before the 2009/10 Military Operations. They had a support from Afghan territory then and now as well.   During the military operations in Swat, Malakand and South Waziristan, lot of weapons and ammunition of US, NATO and even Indian origin was recovered from their hideouts along with US and Indian currency. While tracing back, these links, one would find that, in their current hideouts; especially in Kunar and Nuristan, these elements are being harboured and abetted by their former financiers and trainers.

 Destabilizing Pakistan was and is the sole objective of all these terrorists and their abetters spying agencies. Indeed creation of TTP (an umbrella organization of 13 terrorists groups) in 2007 under Baitullah Mehsud, a former detaining of Guantanamo bay was aimed at punishing Pakistan for not fully complying the US directives, at the hands of these mislead people in the forefront, while controlling them from behind the scene. These terrorists are now once again targeting some of the FATA areas, while making use of Afghan territory.

To give these terrorists a free hand, U.S and NATO forces have been pulled out of the area and there is hardly any deployment of Afghan National Army (ANA) or even its paramilitary forces. Contrarily, there are over 900 security check-posts established all along the border by Pakistan army with over 147,000-trained military personals.  Indeed, a “low number of Afghan security check post and inaction by the Afghan security forces is one of the main reasons behind the increasing terrorist infiltration.” However, the question arise, is the none-existence of the check-posts on the Afghan side of the Pak-Afghan border is deliberate or as a compulsion? After all, there have been no attacks by Afghan militants from any of its bordering province into Pakistan even during the period of extreme tension between two countries.

Indeed, the withdrawal of the ISAF from these two bordering provinces appears to be part of the strategy of the occupation forces. Launching of attacks by the terrorists either of; TTP or Afghan groups on the bordering areas of Pakistan is the subsequent step of the same strategy. While conceiving this strategy, the planners might have thought that, it would pressurize Pakistan to undertake a military operation in North Waziristan Agency, a demand US has been making on Pakistan since long, besides the rhetoric of do more policy.  Attacks on the bordering areas of Pakistan have not been restricted to these terrorist out-fits but also by ANA elements, besides, the border violations by ISAF. There is no possibility that without the consent of occupiers of Afghanistan, there could be an attack on neighbouring Pakistani areas by either the ANA elements or the militants.

In fact, this all appears to be part of the infamous AfPak policy, announced by President Barack Obama in 2009. From its outlook, the policy was aimed at the shared dealing of Afghanistan and Pakistan, with the focal goal to dislocate, dismantle, and overpower the terrorists groups such as al Qaeda and Taliban and to prevent their comeback in a future scenario by adopting a regional approach. The visible core of the policy as envisioned by President Obama was; the soil of Afghanistan and Pakistan should not be used as a base to launch attacks against the U.S Homeland and any developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan should not affect each other’s stability and efforts of purging away the al Qaeda and Taliban. This was indeed the apparent face of the policy. The real agenda was what is now unfolding in the form of many actions by US against the harmony of Pakistan and Afghanistan. U.S indeed, desires a state of confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan to give India an excuse to fill the space on its partial thinning out.

Another aim of the policy was to incorporate Pakistan into the Afghan theatre of US war and get maximum benefit for itself. Indeed, U.S was not winning in Afghanistan and fact remains that still over 80% areas of Afghanistan is out of US sway. Accusing Pakistan for not taking actions against the militants like Haqqqani and Moulvi Nazir in NWA is also part of the same strategy; indeed to make Pakistan, a scapegoat for its own failure. By doing so US finds for itself many leverages for the arm twisting of Pakistan. Since Pakistani Military leadership did Not accept US logics and refused to fulfil US wish list, therefore, the hyper power and especially its spying network, started a malevolent campaign of defaming the armed forces of Pakistan and especially its premier intelligence agency the ISI through its officials and media network.   

 The extreme phase of this policy implementation started once Pakistan apprehended a CIA operative, Raymond Davis on multiple charges of murder and spying, who revealed a lot on US designs. This was followed by Abbotabad raid to haunt OBL, whom over 80%  people still feel as a fake operation aimed to befool the world as if, US has achieved the objective of invading Afghanistan. Other objectives of the episode include; further defaming Pakistan, and its military and intelligence set up and finding excuses for punitive action like stoppage of military assistance as happened recently in the form of the withholding of $800 million aid. This indeed is a reward; traditionally US use to give to all those who do any good to this super power.

As more recently revealed, the new CIA Chief General David Petraeus, would launch a covert US campaign against Pakistan unilaterally to implement the US quasi-military operations. Since CIA already has its covert presence in Pakistan, the only need would be to evolve again, or at least intensify in its present form. “As a marker of what may be to come, the May 11, 2011, witnessed one of the heaviest drone bombardments of Pakistan, with four separate strikes killing over 50 people.” It is worth mentioning that despite removing uniform, as CIA Director, General Petraeus “will be a battlefield commander, in charge of a robotic air force and a small army of U.S. and Afghan paramilitaries, many of whom are former special operations soldiers.” Furthermore, “under U.S. law, Petraeus's campaign in Pakistan will be a civilian-led covert action, authorized under Title 50 of the United State Code. To Pakistan, it will look a lot like war.”