Focus on Russia: Putin, Medvedev never to retire?

-DR. ABDUL RUFF

I - Swap of Positions

Russian politics is slowing getting hot with another set of polls around the corner - both for parliament and presidency - coming in the way of Russians who have had enough of wars. The presidential poll in Russia, to be held on March 4, 2012, will follow parliamentary contests in December of this year - both of them the ruling United Russia promoting Putin-Medvedev duo is expected to sweep. Putin is widely expected to win the race, with Medvedev becoming prime minister.

Russia's strongman Vladimir Putin is not in a mood to retire from the Kremlin power house even after enjoying fruits of power for years since 2000 as twice president and now the premier.  This signifies a disastrous leadership vacuum in Russian politics effectively controlled by corporate world, oligarchs and military by keeping Putin-Medvedev at the Kremlin.

Like enemy nations – for example, India and Pakistan - that exchange prisoners under some formula, Putin, currently premier of Russia, and his own protege and incumbent president Dmitri Medvedev have decided to swap their posts.  Putin had been president of post-Yeltsin Russia for two consecutive terms from 2000 to 2008 and as per constitution he could run for a third term consecutively and he, therefore, placed a hand picked reliable supporter Medvedev to succeed him ignoring senior politicians in his government and made himself prime minister to serve a term under his junior until he becomes eligible to assume presidency. .


The debt crisis in the Eurozone and the problems of the US economy are sparking turmoil on world markets. But Russia not at all worried or affected by the intensifying world economic crisis that has shook the USA and Europe. However, falling energy prices are undermining Russian state finances, which are highly dependent on revenues from oil and gas, besides arms sales. Rumors of a Greek state bankruptcy and European economic turmoil also confront Russia with the risk of further losses, as trade with Europe makes up a significant portion of its energy sales.
 
A shrewd Putin said he would run for the presidency as a deep recession has become ever more likely. The joint operation by the Kremlin duo was seen as a response by the Kremlin to growing threats to Russia’s economy, rising social tensions domestically and increasing international frictions.It is projected that Russia, like the USA, will rely on foreign lending to finance a trade deficit. Over the next decade, oil output in Russia is projected to be flat, at about 10 million barrels per day. Meanwhile rising demand for consumer goods will outpace Russia’s ability to pay for them.

Medvedev says he decided not to run for a second term because Vladimir Putin is both more popular and more authoritative. Medvedev said the decision to swap roles had been taken years ago but that he had kept open the option of running for president, depending on his popularity. Medvedev had previously criticized "stagnation" in the Russian political arena, which is heavily dominated by the pro-Kremlin United Russia party, saying it is damaging to both ruling and opposition forces. But United Russia has approved Putin's proposal that Medvedev heads the party list for December's parliamentary elections and become prime minister after the presidential poll.


Speculations were rife as his second term as president was nearing that Putin would amend Russian constitution to remove the term limit to presidents making incumbent president to get reelected as long as he or population desires. However, he eventually dropped the idea and opted out of contest for a third term. He made his “humble” assistant Medvedev the president only to be able to return to the presidency later.


II - Putin-Medvedev Rule

Putin and Medvedev - the man who replaced him in 2008 after his first two terms in the Kremlin - in order to deny opposition leaders any chance, declared well in advance they want to swap roles. Here, people in Moscow react to the news that the political double act running the country looks set to continue. Medvedev has already made his mind clear, at a congress of the ruling United Russia party, that he would not seek second term for presidency, at least for now, by contesting the Russia’s 2012 presidential elections, but announced that Premier Vladimir Putin seek office.

Medvedev’s announcement and Putin’s subsequent confirmation of his intention to run for president next year put an end to longstanding speculation about which figure within the so-called “ruling tandem” would become Russia’s leading candidate.

There has been a clear understanding between the boss and supporter that after 4 years Putin would seek presidency for a term when he would become eligible to do so. Last 4 years, Russia is being run by Putin-Medvedev duo, taking all policy matter together with Putin having got an upper hand plays the lead role both in domestic and foreign arenas. There has never been any confrontation or conflict of interests. Rather, the coordination between the two has been remarkable. 



Putin-Medvedev duo has systematically pampered the rich and oligarchs even pretending to be fighting corruption. The number of billionaires in Russia has increased from 62 to 101while the regime tries to suppress the opposition leaders. However, It is Putin who really rules the country. He had enough time to carry out reforms, but he didn't do anything in this direction. Opinion polls say that Putin was a good president and did a lot of good to our country - but they also say now he needs to step down in favor of someone new. The attitude many Russians especially the youth towards Putin and his desire to run for president again is very negative since they feel Putin destroyed Russian economy and the only profitable business now is selling oil and gas abroad and he is the grave-digger of Russia, they demand Putin should be in prison rather than in the presidential chair.

While Putin’s reign as president (2000-2008) and prime minister (2008-present) has witnessed the further dismantling of social rights in Russia, it has been done in a carefully crafted manner. This year, Putin oversaw a minimal raise in pensions and opposed calls by Kremlin “liberals” to raise the retirement age. While the vast majority of Russia’s pensioners remain destitute, Putin has portrayed himself as sympathetic to ordinary people’s concerns, against political figures calling for the implementation of austerity measures.


Spiraling food and utility costs are impoverishing the Russian population; already two million more people entered the ranks of Russia’s poor in the first half of 2011. Currently, 14.9 percent of the population is officially poor, up from 12.8 percent in 2010.

 
Growing social inequality threatens to provoke significant popular protests in Russia, as it has throughout the Middle East, North Africa and USA this year. The Russian ruling elite is extremely concerned about what the overthrow of Mubarak and Ben Ali portend for Russia. They do not want nay such uprisings in Russia and Russian intelligence teams just  do not let the CIA intrude into post-Soviet Russian life and are a]watchful about any anti-Russia destabilization moves.


Initial signs of social protests looming on the horizon could be seen in the Russian rust-belt town of Pikalevo in 2009, when mass demonstrations erupted over job losses, wage arrears and miserable living conditions. Putin tried to calm the situation through a mixture of populist demagogy, partial implementation and his usual style of repression.

 

In June 2011, 42 percent of the population expressed their readiness to take part in protests in a survey conducted by the Public Opinion Fund. Approval ratings for the ruling party, United Russia, are low: in early October, only 45 percent of respondents indicated they would vote for United Russia in parliamentary elections.

 

Yet, the ruling elite in Russia, thriving on regime support, prefers Putin to Medvedev in the absence of availability of credible leaders to shoulder the big responsibility at the Kremlin, has apparently determined that it is best to have a strong presidency under Putin—who has played the central role in adjudicating disputes among the various factions of the country’s oligarchy while suppressing popular opposition—directly in control of the presidency. Particularly in the lead-up to the 2012 elections, the Russian ruling elite determined it was necessary to run a presidential candidate with populist credentials, which Medvedev lacks in comparison to Putin.


 
III- Russia's Permanent leaders?


Russia moves long the predictable lines so far as regime policy operations are concerned.

Putin is certain USA would support his claim to presidency for the third term unconditionally since his Russia has been supporting the US led NATO terror operations against Muslims in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Libya and elsewhere.


The Putin regime enjoys the support of military, media and intelligence teams and the issue of freedom struggle by the Chechen Muslims has popped up his importance in a fictitious manner.


States inherit and carry forwards certain characteristic traits from the past as legacy and Russia has maintained  the Soviet structure in many ways to  make people fear and promote the regime. The same case is applicable to all other  nations. China, for instance, if and when it also becomes a "democracy", like Russia or India, it would carry forward the communist legacy to glorify the regime and its crimes. India continues to hate Muslims and Islam chiefly because of the past fanatic attitude of Hindus towards others and terrorism has helped it in a big way to "deal" with Muslims and mosques while many Muslims in India shamelessly praise Indian arrogant anti-Islamism and never tries to open their  dirty mouths on Indian terrorism and  Hindu violence  against Muslims as the largest minority of Indian "democracy". 


Putin's decision means that he could in theory remain in office until 2024, prompting Novaya Gazeta (New Gazette) to publish artists' impressions of how he, Medvedev and other senior politicians might look in that year. It portrayed them dressed in medal-festooned suits, recalling the elderly Soviet leadership which clung on to power in the early 1980s.


Ex-USSR leader and the man of Soviet reforms Mikhail Gorbachev has warned Russia risks wasting six years if PM Vladimir Putin returns to the presidency in March as expected. Gorbachev said Russia was at an "impasse" and that he doubted Putin could bring change since it was he who had created the current situation. He stressed that there will be no movement forward if there are no serious changes along the lines of a replacement of the entire system.

Since he is being viewed as a major subordinate to Putin, no matter whether he is president or premier, Medvedev is keen now to show he is not a Putin puppet, who is simply been keeping the presidential seat warm until Vladimir Putin returns to the Kremlin.


If Putin wins the presidential election in March as expected, he would be eligible to serve another two full terms, potentially keeping him in office until 2024. That prospect has alarmed Mikhail Gorbachev, a former leader of the USSR. 

The country's small liberal opposition has greeted the prospect with dismay. Shortly after it was announced that Putin would run for president in 2012, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, probably a premier hopeful, declared he would not serve in a new government next year if, as expected, Vladimir Putin and Medvedev switch roles. Within days Kudrin, a vocal advocate of austerity, after a public row with Medvedev, because of his opposition to its policies on military and social spending  was forced out of office by Medvedev.  Medvedev gave him a sharp rebuke and ordered him to resign if he continued to disagree over economic policy. Kudrin's resignation will worry foreign investors, who have praised his handling of Russia's economy. He won plaudits for saving much of Russia's oil revenue in a special fund that helped the country weather the international financial crisis of 2008. But his relations with Medvedev had been strained for some time, and he criticized the president's plans to increase military spending. Kudrin possibly wanted to change certain policies if he takes up premier role.

Boris Nemtsov, a deputy prime minister under Boris Yeltsin and co-founder of the unregistered People's Freedom Party, predicted "giant corruption" in the country's politics. That is how many Russians now see him, and this interview will have done little to change this image as the Kremlin caretaker. Analysts say there is little doubt that Putin, 58, might win the presidential poll in March albeit with a reduced margin.And Medvedev would get into premier shoes. Maybe the race would continue for some more terms like this.


That is the fate of Russians - Russkaya sudjba!