France Goes Socialism:  People kick Sarkozy Out!

COL DR. ABUDL RUFF

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Europe’s anger over anti-people policy of their regimes is unprecedented. Even as the Greece's two governing parties, which back EU-mandated budgetary cuts, lose their parliamentary majority as anti-austerity parties make big gains, the French people have also shown the door to the incumbent president Sarkozy.

Francois Hollande has beaten Nicolas Sarkozy by three and a half points, with 99% of the vote counted, and has polled just fewer than 52% of votes in run-off election. The eurozone was a key issue: Hollande insists on adding growth measures to the fiscal pact negotiated by Sarkozy.

People have waited 17 years for a Socialist president. The excitement has been building for two weeks, it was mixed with relief and perhaps some disbelief when the first estimate was broadcast. More than 350 polls published since the beginning of this campaign said he would win.

During the campaign, he had said he would leave politics if he lost the election. Sarkozy, who has been in office since 2007, had promised to reduce France's large budget deficit through spending cuts. He becomes the latest European leader to be voted out of office amid widespread voter anger at austerity measures triggered by the eurozone debt crisis.

Hollande is perhaps the luckiest man on earth today. In over 30 years in politics Hollande has never served as a minister. For much of his tenure as the party's first secretary from 1997 to 2008 he was seen as a consensus manager - a listener more than a visionary. Now he must lead, making tough choices to put France on the path to recovery.

Sarkozy had led the country through the worst economic crisis in living memory. His promises of a better life had come to nothing. By the left he was despised as the uncultured friend of the rich; by the far right as the man who broke his word; by liberals as the president who began to reform then stopped.

Commentators note that qualities like intelligence, patience, consistency, likeability, and a hidden vein of steel are the merits that have brought Francois Hollande to election victory. He was up in the campaign against a man whose personal unpopularity was legend.  Exceptionally good fortune has made him a likable president.

Hollande - the first Socialist to win the French presidency since Francois Mitterrand in the 1980s - earlier gave his victory speech in his stronghold of Tulle in central France. He is the quintessential anti-Sarkozy. Hollande corresponds to a public demand for someone who is as different as possible from the outgoing president. Hollande capitalized on France's economic woes and President Sarkozy's unpopularity. Yet, only a few hundred thousand votes separated him from Francois Hollande in round one.

Jubilant Hollande supporters gathered at the place de la Bastille in Paris - a traditional rallying point of the Left - to celebrate. The Socialist candidate has promised to raise taxes on big corporations and people earning more than 1m euros a year. He wants to raise the minimum wage, hire 60,000 more teachers and lower the retirement age from 62 to 60 for some workers. Hollande said austerity can no longer be the only option and he would push ahead with his pledge to refocus EU fiscal efforts from austerity to "growth".

Hollande has called for a renegotiation of a hard-won European treaty on budget discipline championed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Mrs Merkel had congratulated the president-elect by phone and invited him to Berlin to hold talks soon. UK terror Premier David Cameron, waiting for his ill-fate, also called Hollande to congratulate him.

Hollande is expected to be inaugurated later this month. A parliamentary election is due in June.

Observation

France has regained socialist rule after decades.  The poll has revealed the simmering popular anger against an arrogant president who propagated austerity for cherished "growth". Centre-right incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy is the first French president not to win a second term since 1981.  

Anti-Sarkozy wave has brought Hollande to presidency. And President elect Hollande has been capable of giving people hope again and has vowed to rework a deal on government debt in eurozone member countries to try and promote growth.

The big question now is whether the qualities that appear to have brought Hollande into the Elysee will serve him as well once he is there. Today France has unemployment of more than 10%. Public spending is 56% of GDP. Public debt will hit 90% of GDP this year. In 2012 the country needs to raise 180bn euros on the bond markets. Next year it needs 200bn.Certainly he has spoken of controlling the budget deficit - bringing it to zero by 2017 is the manifesto pledge. But the argument that this might require painful choices affecting his core constituency among the urban poor and public sector workers has been assiduously avoided.

Now is the time for the virtues.