Palestine: Israel back to square one!

-DR. ABDUL RUFF

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As April month has begun, the USA is still keen to complete the peace talk process for the deal by the end of this month. But Israel has applied a spanner to stop the peace talk as it is yet to fulfil the pledges on prisoner release and did approve the release of the fourth tranche of Palestinian prisoners that were part of the deal to initiate the talks last summer.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has rejected a proposal sent to him by Israeli hawkish PM Binyamin Netanyahu after the Israeli PM aborted the fourth of four planned releases of Palestinian prisoners. Along with the rejection came an ultimatum from the Palestinians that if there is no resolution of the impasse within 24 hours, they would resume unilateral efforts to achieve recognition of statehood at the United Nations and presumably begin bringing actions against Israel and Israelis at the International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court at The Hague.

The Israeli refusal proposal, termed “blackmail” by the Palestinians, offered the release of 420 additional prisoners, but who would be set free would be decided by Israel.

The Netanyahu plan offered a partial freeze in building in Israeli illegal “settlements” located on land Israel acquired in the 1967 war – but did not include east Jerusalem which Israel views separately from other post-1967 lands but the Palestinians lump with the West Bank.

The President of the United States Obama haunted by troubles home and abroad, finally in 2012 decided to forge a breakthrough on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict – at any price. He separately summoned Israeli and Palestinian leaders, and presented them with an ultimatum: for Israel, lack of agreement means no more aid and no more vetoes at the UN Security Council.

Zionism

Zionism now means whatever Israeli criminal regime does in order to prolong occupation and proliferate the illegal colonies inside Palestine. State crimes make Israel powerful.

Israeli move to derail a latest US push to revive faltering peace talks with Israel is not surprising. As speculated but unfortunately for now, Israel blocks the forward move in the latest talks for a peace deal by refusing to fulfil the pledges made by it to USA. Unable to withstand the dirty tricks of Israel in ending the peace talk without any positive outcome, Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas signed a request to join 15 UN agencies and international treaties, beginning with the Fourth Geneva Convention on 01 April. This is not a move against America or any other party — it is our right, and we agreed to suspend it for nine months,” said Abbas, citing anger at Israel’s delay of a prisoner release in a decision that jeopardized US efforts to salvage fragile peace talks. His unexpected move was aimed at solidifying the standing of Palestinians in global bodies, defying both Israel and the United States that have long opposed such unilateral action.

The Palestinians have repeatedly threatened to resume their action through international courts and the UN over Israel’s settlement expansion on occupied territory in the West Bank and in annexed Arab east Jerusalem. In retaliation, Israel reissued tenders for hundreds of settler homes in the east Jerusalem settlement neighbourhood of Gilo, on top of the thousands of new homes it has announced since July.

The Palestinians had agreed to refrain from seeking membership of international bodies and from pursuing legal action against Israel during the nine months of talks that US Secretary of State John Kerry launched in July. In return, Israel agreed to release 104 long-serving Palestinian prisoners. But Israel has refused to release the final batch of 26 prisoners, using it as a bargaining chip to try and extend talks beyond their April 29 deadline.

Israel brutally controls Palestine. In 2012 Palestinians delivered a written ultimatum to Israel from President Mahmoud Abbas, setting out the parameters for stalled peace talks to resume, and warning that both sides were sliding towards a bi-national state.

Abbas said Israeli intransigence has stripped the Palestinian Authority (PA), created by the 1993 Oslo peace accords, of its “raison d’etre” and warns the two sides must “avoid sliding towards the one-state option, especially as the current status quo cannot continue. As a result of actions taken by successive Israeli governments, the Palestinian National Authority no longer has any authority, and no meaningful jurisdiction in the political, economic, and territorial and security spheres. PLO calls for a Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders and an end to settlement expansion, is a watered-down version of earlier drafts, following intense pressure from Washington, with threats to dismantle the PA and pass responsibility for the occupied territories to Israel excised from the final version.

Although he said he views the PA as essentially powerless, Abbas told reporters he had no intention of dismantling the body. Nevertheless, if a positive response is not forthcoming from Israel, the letter could precipitate a revived Palestinian statehood bid in the UN General Assembly – following failed efforts to secure backing in the Security Council last autumn. Analysts say the move could invite Israeli retaliation that might in any case threaten the PA’s survival.

US Secretary of State John Kerry made an emergency trip to the Middle East region to personally oversee damage control and met with both Hawkish and tricky Israeli PM Netanyahu and Palestine President Abbas on 01^st April. He hoped for osme positive outcome

Kerry undertaking whirlwind visits to Mideast was due back in the region for a meeting with the Palestinian president today. Top US diplomat Kerry immediately announced that he was cancelling a trip to the region on Wednesday that Washington had hoped would result in a three-way deal aimed at extending the negotiations into 2015.

Diplomacy

One cannot ignore, of course, the chemistry between the two leaders, notably absent in the relationship between the US president and the current Israeli prime minister. In any case, all sides hold low expectations from these talks, with diplomats behind the scenes calling it “life support for a process in a coma.”

In order to rope in Jordan in peace process, President Obama has hosted King Abdullah II of Jordan at the White House in 2012 to discuss the regional troubles and Jordan’s initiative “in advancing our shared goal of a negotiated peace between Israel and the Palestinians,” as the White House put it. Cynics interpret this visit and the current initiative as follows: President Obama, burnt by an attempt to renew negotiations that went awry, outsourced peace attempts to Jordan (pretty much the way his administration preferred international cooperation on Libya, or the Arab League dealing with Syria). For obvious blockade reasons Egypt couldn’t act as intermediary this time – and the king of Jordan has his political reasons for assuming a more active role in the peace process, like proving, with Obama’s support, his leadership in the turbulent region.

Records suggest that presidents before Obama also tried all these pressure tactics but they did not work. Threatening Sharon with an embargo and a cessation of $8 billion dollars in aid was probably too harsh and perhaps counterproductive and deserved to be humiliated.

US Presidents as usual was warned of the Congress and the pro-Israeli organizations; harsh reactions of Evangelicals and the Jewish community – and even of a possible assassination attempt. The rest is a quickly developing plot, focused less on the peace process and more on Al-Qaida, the Mossad, and numerous assassination attempts, some of them successful. The saddest point, however, is that the historical agreement is soon jeopardized.

A document Agreement of Principles that was to be presented at a conference in the Jordanian city of Aqaba at the end of January, which will be hosted by King Abdullah and include Kerry, Netanyahu and Abbas.

Sovereignty and control will effectively remain in the hands of Israel. In addition, the sources said, settlement blocs, the border control and natural resources including water will remain under Israeli control and the 1967 borders changed with land exchanges. The agreement also envisages US training and control of Palestinian security forces. Instead of dealing with Jerusalem at this time the understandings would only include a phrase supporting “Palestinian aspirations in Jerusalem.”

Jordan will have a role in the agreement, which would be determined by the USA.  Jordan will have a role concerning borders, administration of the holy sites and the Old City of Jerusalem, as well as an airport in Palestine and refugees.

The agreement applies only to the West Bank since the Gaza Strip is a separate entity at this time.  Gaza rulers are expected to make their objections in defiance of the Israeli ultimatum, bringing on another round of violence and quite probably an Israeli invasion of the strip.

Problem

The problem is Israel is eager to wind up the peace talks and it, as usual, creates bottlenecks to derail the process. USA knows that. As the clock winds down on the nine month-long talks and both sides toughen their bargaining stances, the administration is no longer outright rejecting the idea when proposed from the Israeli side.

Israel is still avoiding discussing the real issues for final settlement, complicating the essence of peace talks. Kerry’s meetings with Netanyahu and Abbas, which are private and cryptic, are focused only on extending negotiations and not on actual final status issues. The confidence building measures being proposed to both sides are from the same menu the administration used last July, raising concern that Kerry is back where he started nine months ago.

Clearly, Israeli focus in the current US mediated peace talks is in fact on  the release of a US Jew turned Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard from US prison  where the spy is undergoing punishment for treason.  Netanyahu has made the release of Pollard as a special priority. In his first term as prime minister, he granted Pollard–who was an American citizen–Israeli citizenship and even visited Pollard in prison. Netanyahu has publicly asked Obama to release him and his government has raised the issue in past discussions with the United States.

Unable to use the stick against Israel, the White House, struggling under pressure from Jewish organizations and Israel, for ways to keep the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks going, is considering doing something it swore it would never do: release convicted Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard.

Pollard was a civilian working for US Navy Intelligence, but eventually his fantasy life turned into reality. Through an intermediary who was a family friend, Pollard met his initial Israeli handler, a noted fighter pilot named Col. Aviem Sella, who was on study leave in the United States, and volunteered to spy. Initially, Pollard passed along secrets related to artillery developments in several Arab countries. Matters escalated from there. The Israelis continued to ask for secrets directly related to their security, according to the CIA study, including Arab and Pakistani nuclear secrets and capabilities of the Soviet weapons in Arab hands. But Pollard may have given them much more than that. He passed along great volumes of intelligence material. On Jan. 23, 1985, he handed over five suitcases of secrets, for instance. He kept up an almost-steady biweekly schedule of further deliveries until his arrest in November 1985. Colleagues had noted his suspicious handling of classified material and turned him in. Initially, he sought refuge at the Israeli Embassy, but Israel refused to recognize him at the time. He pleaded guilty to leaking documents to Israel and received a life sentence.

The intelligence community has long described Pollard as a troubled individual who was motivated by money more than ideology and who tried to peddle secrets to at least three other countries. Secrets included details of US spy satellites, analyses of foreign missile systems, and the extent of NSA surveillance of foreign governments. He reportedly offered material to South Africa, Argentina, and Taiwan, and was in touch with officials in Pakistan. Much of what Pollard stole ended up with the Soviet Union, through the USSR’s own network of spies and moles.

Spy ring

The possible release of Pollard, although not likely, is now on the list of items being discussed between Secretary of State John Kerry and Israeli Netanyahu as part of a formula whereby he and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas would both agree to extend peace talks past their April 29 deadline.

By stealing many state secrets for Israel a US Jewish citizen, Pollard did serious damage to US intelligence and his release would gain nothing.  Washington is now talking with Israel about releasing convicted spy Jonathan Pollard to the Israeli government as an incentive to keep troubled Middle East peace negotiations going. That would be huge, a big geopolitical move that would please many in Israel, meet with the approval of pro-Israeli lawmakers in the US Congress, and infuriate a US defense and intelligence community, already angered by the revelations of National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden.

The release would sweeten the pot for Netanyahu, who is running a government of illegal settler leaders and state criminals. If Netanyahu were to secure Pollard’s release, it would mark the end of a near two-decade campaign for the Israeli prime minister. In 1998, in his first brief term as prime minister, Netanyahu pressed President Clinton to release the convicted spy as a condition to Israel’s acceptance of an interim peace agreement with the Palestinians known as the Wye River Accords. The idea was so opposed by the US intelligence community at the time that George Tenet, who was then the CIA director, threatened to resign if Pollard was released. Opposition to Pollard’s release has softened since then thanks to persistent Zionist pressure tactics.

Netanyahu would be a hero in Israel for winning Pollard’s release. But the effect on peace talks would be less clear. Reportedly the US wants talks to continue as the price for Pollard. But Mr. Netanyahu’s political coalition would break apart if he made the land-for-peace trades any actual deal with Palestinians might entail.

Meaningless

Specialists and tacticians in USA argue that releasing Pollard in this context really gains nothing of value. Netanyahu has no intention of breaking the current deadlock in peace negotiations. The impasse is largely based on the Netanyahu government’s active efforts to scuttle the negotiations themselves. So this amounts to offering a thing of great value in exchange for getting dust kicked in your face

Many feel such a spy prisoner “gift” could only be made after the peace deal is achieved as Obama seeks as Jews cannot be trusted.

Obama’s clemency for an aging spy would not have any geopolitical advantage but could result in a likely increase in tension with its own national security team. The US intelligence community has not forgotten or forgiven Pollard for his actions. Any move to release him will surely spark a furious internal reaction.

Like their Hindu counterparts in India demand of Muslims, the Israeli fanatics want the Palestinians not to produce children.  No US president really had the guts to force Palestinians and Israelis to the table and tell them, this is how I want it to be resolved, or else.  The presidents of the U.S. have been reluctant to do this because of political reasons. And their involvement was only exacerbating the situation. In the long run, the odds are against the Israelis, because of the higher birth rate of the Palestinians. If there will be no political solution, it can only end in a disaster.

Jewish strategists argue that young people in Palestine will be as passive as they are today if they’ll be an overwhelming majority. If they’ll start marching to borders will Israelis start shooting them all? If it had been resolved 20 years ago, there probably would have been prosperity in the region.

The fact is the majority of the Israelis and the Palestinians want peace – it’s the governments who polarize.

None is optimistic at all about the prospects of solving the conflict, as long as the Israelis keep building settlements.

Observations

Supporters of the peace process argue that that some progress has been made on core issues, gaps are narrower than nine months ago, and therefore the two sides are slightly closer to an agreement. The fact the White House is seriously considering the Pollard release shows how desperate the USA is to keep the process going.

Israel knows it can survive without the active backing of USA and thus if it does not agree to promote peace talks, it would lose all support it receives from USA, including arms, technology and veto against any UN resolution against its crimes against humanity.

Israel as a modern fascist nation will never change on its own.  Only the western backers can make it to behave.

Israel makes loud noise about its existence and survival of coalition government of hawkish leaders.  A peace agreement may also thus send the Israeli cabinet into crisis, if the Jewish Home party decides to withdraw from the government over the deal as promised.

Zionist reaction to the ultimatum is not at all positive. It tries to buy time, pretending to be doing good for the world. But the President brushes aside all Israeli excuses and pressed still harder.

Humanity has no magic recipes to revive the peace process.

If Kerry has to spend all this time on the appetizers, what happens when you have to confront the main course?

The White House is more skeptical a final deal can be struck while the State Department, led by Kerry, holds more hope that more time will help achieve real progress.

If the all powerful super power USA finds Israel tough to talk to, what about the position of  the besieged Palestinians?

The decision of Palestine to approach for  final settlement though the UN is  the step in the right direction.

The question is what the price will be and what will be the costs to American credibility.