Emerging India-Pakistan equations

-DR. ABDUL RUFF COLACHAL 

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Decomposed in real terms owing mainly to mutual suspicion, hatred and resultant tensions, Indo-Pakistani relations have been in a low key since these two nations came into existence in 1947 for various reasons, both real and fictitious, including the Kashmir cum nuke flashpoint. .

World is watching very carefully how the newly emerged Modi government would handle the usual Hindutva and other confrontational issues – both at domestic and foreign stages- that made the party popular among fanatic Hindus.

Kashmir has stayed as the major flashpoint in Indo-Pakistani relations, constantly hindering any progress in the normal bilateral ties.

With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) forming a majority government in India under the leadership of Narendra Modi, questions are being raised about the implications for Kashmir and India–Pakistan relations.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to address the issues of Kashmir and Indo-Pakistan relation. Following the searing in ceremony, Modi and Sharif met the next day in New Delhi to feel the each other’s pulse and pressure

Many Kashmiri leaders have expressed hope that the BJP, once in power, may take the process forward from where Vajpayee left off and that Modi may prove to be another Vajpayee. But Modi is no Vajpayee to give an altogether new direction to the conflict resolution process and carry the nation along with him.

Narendra Modi does not possesses the innocent look that shaped the pretentious Manmohan Singh, installed as PM by corporatist Congress party; however, he, though a pro-rich and corporatist, cannot be taken for grated as well.  But whether Modi with his  viable majority would also promote the corporatist agenda  remains to be seen. In order to stay as PM, Manmohan Singh allowed all sorts of corrupt  practices by his ministers and MPs,among others.
Hopefully Modi does not have  to feel  vulnerable at all and he can be firm. .

Premier Modi displayed his firmness by inviting Pakistani Premier, among others to his swearing in ceremony.

PM Modi, who rose dramatically from a boy who was selling tea at  a railway station in Gujarat to premier of India of over a billion people by serving  the cause of Hindutva in practice, started his day of his new duties as Indian PM by assuming charge at the Prime Minister's Office, known is short as the PMO. Narendra Modi was administered oath of office and secrecy by President Pranab Mukherjee as India's 15th Prime Minister along with his 44-member Cabinet on May 26^th evening. 

Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who was in New Delhi to attend Prime Minister Narendra Modi's swearing-in on May 26, said at a press conference at the Taj Mansingh, "...we both were in the beginning of a clear mandate from our respective nations. This provides an opportunity to fulfill the hopes of 1.5 billion people of the two countries who want us to focus on people and welfare. We had talks in warm and cordial atmosphere."  Sharif was seen being escorted by External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj.

 The invitation for the swearing in ceremony sent by Indian premier elect Narandra Modi to the SAARC leaders, especially Pakistani premier Mian Nawaz Sharif signaled a new beginning in India's external affairs. The nearly hour long bilateral meeting on 27th May between Prime Ministers of India and Pakistan, Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif at Hyderabad House, the residence of Vice President of India Dr. Hamid Ansari, New Delhi ended without any communiqué announced so far. 

Earlier, before the meeting started, Sharif and Modi shook hands and exchanged pleasantries during their photo opportunity before moving inside for bilateral talks in the presence of officials from both sides. In the morning, Modi met leaders from Afghanistan, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Mauritus and Nepal.

By all standards, the meeting was a casual, friendly and warm up one to promote ties and they are not expected to make any policy decisions over a cup of high tea. The notes from foreign and military ministries of both countries should have made the meeting very cautious.

What have transpired between the two leaders during their meeting was not immediately known. The two leaders are believed to have held consultations on issues of mutual interest related to the two countries. it was expected both would somehow touch upon major issues troubling them for years, notwithstanding the fact that they have no readymade solutions. Terrorism and Kashmir were slated for major attention. Many Pakistani fanatics want joint cricketism exercises between India and Pakistan, no matter if fixed in favor of India.

Since Modi surprised all speculators about ministers and portfolios by enacting a concise ministry with his own choice of people to handle key ministries, it is certain Modi would have departed from the usual meeting styles by avoiding major issues. . 

However, Indian media reported that Modi, like his predecessors had done before him, had asked Pakistani premier to stop cross border terrorism (a favored Indian diplomatic expression for mutual firings) into Indian soil and sped up Mumbai terror case.  Since such has always been the reporting of fanatic Indian media to keep Hindu fanatics in good humors and as such the supposed new but usual Indian bully directed at Islamabad cannot be taken as its face value.

 Nawaz Sharif said that cooperation, rather than confrontation, should be the focus of ties between India and Pakistan.  "Our common agenda is not possible without peace and security. Consequently, it is important for us to work together. Let us change confrontation into cooperation. My government stands ready and is in the spirit of cooperation." The Pakistan PM said, "We owe our people to overcome a mistrust and enmity. PM Modi reciprocated my sentiments. He stated it was incumbent on both of us to work together for the common objective - peace and development. Let us carry forward our bilateral agenda." 

Nawaz told Modi that the meeting was an auspicious occurrence for both the countries and Pakistan and India both have many traditional and cultural similarities. He is also said to have stressed upon strengthening shared values and customs, saying that poverty and illiteracy should be eliminated from the region. Sharif also denounced arms race and regretted how the two countries wasted valuable time and resources in the past.  Later, Sharif told a news channel he had an "excellent" meeting with Modi. "We are positive, look forward to a positive outcome."

Sharif said he had a warm and friendly exchange with President Pranab Mukherjee. As a departing note, he he leaves “this historic city with a strong sense that the people of our two countries will work together for peace and cooperation. Two foreign secretaries will be meeting soon."Sharif said he had a warm and friendly exchange with President Pranab Mukherjee.

 Earlier, Indian Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh told the media that Modi raised the issue of cross-border terrorism and sought a speedy trial in the 26/11 case with Sharif. She also said Modi had accepted the invitation of Sharif to visit Pakistan. PM Modi conveyed to PM Nawaz Sharif that Pakistan must ensure speedy trial in 26/11 Mumbai attack case," she said. On the Kashmir issue, she said it was decided that "foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan will be in touch to find the best way forward". She refused to divulge more details, saying many issues were discussed in the meeting including people-to-people contact and border management. She also said Modi had accepted Sharif's invitation to visit Pakistan.

One of the outcomes of the new power equations in recent years is freezing of Kashmir issue as both India and Pakistan are determined to retain the parts of Kashmir under their occupation and successfully denied Kashmiris the right to self rule.

Clearly, neither  did Sharif raise the Kashmir issue, not did Modi even mention that issue at all. 

Meanwhile, the RSS has asked the Modi regime to discuss the Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which has grouped Jammu and Kashmir as a special and different state.  Article 370 of the Constitution gives both special status and hence resources to Jammu Kashmir state. Pro-India politicians who rule JK seek full autonomy the state within Indian Union, while many pro-Pakistan Kashmiris seek freedom to join Pakistan. But those Kashmiris who seek full independence both from India and Pakistan (also China) for a free JK nation are disillusioned. 

Modi has abstained from recommending the abolition of Article 370. Instead he has called for debate on the benefits of this article for Jammu and Kashmir’s citizens. Modi also has a reputation of having a hardline position on Pakistan and Muslims. This stems not only from his handling of the 2002 Gujarat riots but also his views on various issues that project him as an inflexible leader.

 BJP opposes asymmetrical federalism with any kind of constitutional exception for the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Article 370 of the Indian constitution privileges Jammu and Kashmir as the only unit of India to have a constitution of its own, and a limited application not only of the Indian constitution but also of parliamentary legislation. However, when the party led the NDA government from 1999–2004, it put demands to abolish Article 370 on the back burner and adopted a proactive role in officially recognising the Kashmir dispute and institutionalizing the peace process. It is in appreciation of the progress made during the NDA’s time that, despite the ideological position of the BJP, Vajpayee is remembered in Kashmir as one of the most dynamic Indian prime ministers. But when BJP government fell in the 2004 elections, the BJP not only went back to its original position of opposing Article 370 but also disowned the peace process initiated by Vajpayee. Especially after the Mumbai terror attack, the BJP adopted a very offensive approach vis-à-vis Pakistan and Kashmir.

The Congress government pretended to pursue peace course with Pakistan and freedom for Kashmiris while BJP openly objected. . It was because of the BJP’s aggressive posturing that Manmohan Singh’s government could not take the peace process beyond the opening of routes for people-to-people movement and trade purposes across the Line of Control.

How Modi would handle the issue is important to comprehend his Hindutva stand after the poll. Whether   the Kashmir issue would be resolved with the abolition of article on Kashmir and if so in what way remains to be seen.

One thing common between India and Pakistan is the importance of crony capitalism for them as they promote the corporate lords and help them grow their wealth.  Although Modi is not a industrialist himself, Sharif very much is..

Premier Modi may not be Vajpayee but he carries the legacy of Vajpayee that would also become an obligation and responsibility for him as sincere leader of Indian subcontinent. 

A stable government under a strong leader may be able to deliver things better on the ground. So what direction will the peace process take under Modi?

Joint cricket exercises cannot guarantee stable bilateral relations. Regimes should take fake cricket meant only for time pass seriously. Now cricket has stooped so low to become a bogus sport of gambling and fixings on payment or something else. Regimes must leave cricket at its extra space. International cricket frauds can only be caught and jailed so that young minds are not corrupted by the fake joint cricketism exercises. .

Politics both domestic and international is a serious matter and it should not be mixed with time-pass cricket with secret fixings and hidden agenda. .

The future of Indo-Pak relations depends heavily on India now.