Mutual dependence
makes USA and Russia secret allies
-Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal
____________________
Collaboration
The Cold War rivals USA and Russia that threatened the whole world with awful
disaster to the humanity by their ideological antagonism leading to possible
wars have always maintained secret ties and business relations. They don’t
fight war on their territories but only resort to strong rhetoric off and on
and get other countries fight wars in their countries with or without arms sold
by USA and Russia. Afghanistan, Georgia and Ukraine are the best examples
to show how these countries play international politics at the huge human costs
outside their borders.
The mutual dependence theory being advanced by the western strategists to unite
USA and Russia makes Russia a favorite as the US led western powers need the
Kremlin to advance their agenda globally. Without the Russian support,
Washington finds pursuing imperialist agenda extremely difficult at global
scale, still Russia is considered to be a nuisance; its opposing strategy
causes serious worry in western capitals.
Sept-11 hoax created the preconditions needed for all anti-Islamic nations come
together to feel strongly for what is known as war on terror but in fact a long
terror war on Islam and Islamic world. USA and Russia began working
together since then.
Despite their loud rhetoric against each other over Ukraine and Malaysian plane
crash in Ukraine, among other issues, USA and Russia have been engaged in
mutual cooperation since the end of World War One. Even during the so-called
Cold war threatening the very existence of the world, American and Russia
diplomats kept on meeting and deciding various issues though they did signal a
cold fight on ideological grounds.
Both Russia and USA tired best to deviate from the plane crash issue by making
conciliatory “discoveries”. The initial strain and tension with Western leaders
was based on emotions and immediate political expediency, rather than facts.
The USA appeared to back off when it presented its report on the investigation
into the MH17 crash. US intelligence officials said that they have no evidence
that the missile that was used to down the plane came from Russia. Russia
is responsible for "creating the conditions" but there is no evidence
of direct Russian involvement in the shooting down of the airliner. The rebels
did likely shoot down the Kuala Lumpur-bound plane, mistaking it for a military
plane, intelligence officials said, citing satellite photos, social media postings
and other intercepts.
Dependence
Europe cannot afford to antagonize Russia now or in the near future.
Antagonizing Moscow carries the risk of fueling the conflict in Ukraine
further, bringing with it the prospect of disrupted gas supplies to European
customers due to instability in the transit country. Limiting trade with Russia
would be damaging because the 28-nation EU sold goods worth 120 billion euros
($161.7 billion) to Russia last year, even if that was only 7 percent of the
bloc's annual exports. Germany, Europe's biggest economy, accounted for
one-third of sales to Russia, around 36 billion euros ($48.5 billion). Many of
those goods could be restricted by sanctions: manufactured products including
those used in defense and energy.
Germany is the swing state given its position at the heart of Europe and its
weight as the EU's most populous country. Britain, Poland and Sweden lead
a group pushing for economic sanctions, and whose combined total exports to
Russia are less than the size of those of Germany. Some 6,200 German
firms are active in Russia with 20 billion euros ($27 billion) of investments
there, while the jobs of 350,000 German workers depend on Russian trade.
Italy is among the states most strongly resisting tougher restrictions on
Russia, along with Greece and Cyprus. Italian exports to Russia were second
only to Germany's last year at nearly 11 billion euros ($14.8 billion), double
those of Britain and larger than the 8 billion euros ($10.8 billion) of the
Netherlands, which has shifted to the pro-sanctions camp after 193 of its
citizens were killed in the plane disaster. Much of the Italian sales were
manufactured goods, transport machinery and chemicals — the kind of
sophisticated products Russia's raw materials-dominated economy needs. The
Netherlands, a nation of 15 million, has an outsized share of imports from
Moscow and foreign direct investment flows to Russia because of its position as
an oil and commodities trading hub and a tax-efficient base for offshore
corporations. Italy's allies include southern European countries such as
Cyprus, which stands to lose from sanctions because of the billions of euros
Russian oligarchs have invested there. Of $94 billion in outward foreign direct
investment by Russian residents in 2013, $11 billion ended up in Cyprus.
Cyprus, where light regulation and cultural ties through Orthodox Christianity
have long attracted the capital and savings of Russians, was only second to the
British Virgin Islands, which took in $61.7 billion last year. Wealthy Russians
took a hit when the euro zone imposed losses on big bank depositors in return
for a 10 billion euro ($13.5 billion) bailout of Cyprus last year after a
banking meltdown.
Like wars, the long arm of the US sanctions regime reaches well outside US
borders, so, the Financial Times writes, the financial institutions in the
capital and elsewhere cannot afford to be cavalier. Financial institutions are
making sure the lists are fully up to date and applied properly throughout
their systems to deny services to a sanction-hit Russians. Meanwhile, London
City financial institutions are in damage control mode, assessing existing
deals with Russia and reviewing client lists to avoid being hit by sanctions,
with particular attention to those imposed last week by the USA. The Daily
Telegraph reported that the threats seem to be having an effect, as Russian
oligarchs have started moving their money out of London to keep it safe.
The measures taken with regard to individuals and entities have got a correlation
with some of the financial flows across Europe, including in London.
Europe does not want to lose gas and all economic advantages.
Convergence
Every regime gets its public opinion molded and shaped in the media to effect
the desired foreign policy course to be accepted by the people. Today all
parties are essentially hostages to the public opinion that they helped to
agitate in the first place, which makes it difficult to reach a win-win
solution. All sides have to present the situation as their victory, while the
only way to end the crisis is to reach a compromise. A major responsibility for
this whole crisis lies with the hawkish rhetoric from all sides. The way what
is happening is described in Washington, Kiev and Moscow resembles a wartime discourse,
which completely blocks any compromise
While, as usual, USA is eager to keep Europe under its control, European
economic interests in Russia are being used by Washington to its own advantage.
As such, USA does not object to Europe’s decision to maintain economic ties
with Moscow that are very huge. Russia and Europe's bilateral trade was worth
more than $400 billion in 2012. More sanctions increase the price all of
Europeans have to pay for this conflict. Germany and Italy have most to
lose if the European Union makes good on its threat to impose harsher sanctions
on Moscow, while Britain's overseas territories are soaking up the lion's share
of capital streaming out of Russia.
Europe depends heavily on Russia for gas and petroleum products. About a
third of the gas consumed by Europe is supplied by Russia and is largely
delivered via Ukrainian territory. Wary of antagonizing its main gas supplier
Russia, the EU has used only small travel bans and asset freezes so far in
reaction to Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in
Ukraine. An EU plan to consider limiting Russian access to European defense and
energy technology more difficult with the impact of restricting trade with
Russia would be far from even, despite pressure from the United States after
the downing of a Malaysian airliner over the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine.
EU said that those measures may be widened if Moscow does not cooperate with an
investigation into the plane crash and fails to stop weapons flowing into the
country.
While East Europe is conciliatory towards Moscow, the Baltic countries, which
won their independence from the Soviet Union two decades ago and now supporting
USA, however, are the most vocal about the need for sanctions against Russia
despite strong trade ties. Almost three-quarters of Latvia's drinks and tobacco
exports go to Russia, while Lithuania sells a third of its food and live
animals there. But the Baltics are eager to diversify away from Moscow.
Lithuania badly wants to join its Baltic neighbors Latvia and Estonia in the
euro zone, cementing a shift westwards. Interestingly, they see the Kremlin
also promoting the US interests globally.
Conflict
Sanctions are always a problem both for those who are subjected to them and
those who impose them. If large scale sanctions are imposed against Russia, its
economy could dip into a recession, while if Russia sends troops into Ukraine,
it could lose up to 20 percent of its GDP in several years.
Internal divisions in the EU failed to produce the consensus needed to support
the tough talk of sanctions initiated by Washington immediately following the
crash. EU governments are split over tougher sanctions, largely depending
on the closeness of their ties with Russia.
America has seen how difficult it is for it to get Europe now to contain Russia
when its economy is linked with those of European states. While the US
attempted to consolidate all major Western powers in an attempt to isolate
Russia, all the individual states have their own economic and political
interests at stake that they were ultimately unwilling to sacrifice for the
common goal.
The threat of the West slapping tougher sanctions on Russia after the
devastating Malaysia Airlines crash in eastern Ukraine has given London-based
Russian oligarchs and firms the jitters, with both groups taking steps to avoid
being caught out by further punitive measures.
Since the plane crash, President Vladimir Putin has come under pressure both
internationally and domestically, forcing him to search for the least damaging
solution to the intensified confrontation with the West without abandoning
Russia's interests in Ukraine. When the Kremlin annexed Crimea many
conservative thinkers inside Russia and abroad have declared that Vladimir Putin
has vouched for a more interventionist policy. Putin's solution to the need to
cooperate with the West economically and keep a stake in Ukrainian politics has
been to adopt a conciliatory stance and wait for emotions to subside.
EU foreign ministers agreed to widen the list of individuals and entities
targeted by asset freezes and visa bans, and also raised the possibility of
restricting Russian access to European capital markets, defense and energy
technologies. Cameron said he wanted broader sanctions to target "the
cronies and oligarchs" around President Vladimir Putin and was ready to
consider sanctions that would damage its own interests, including in the
financial sector.
The British cross-party Commons Committee on Arms Export Controls accused the British
government of failing to halt arms exports to Russia, saying that export
licenses worth $225 million still remain in force. The revelation prompted
accusations of hypocrisy directed at British Prime Minister David Cameron.
Cameron had earlier urged the French government to scrap a deal to sell
two Mistral-class helicopter carriers to Russia. The head of France's ruling
Socialist party, Jean-Christophe Cambadelis, said that Cameron must "start
by cleaning up his own backyard," referring to the number of Russian
oligarchs in Britain and the strength of financial ties between Moscow and
London.
Russia and the West are locked in mutual cooperation in many issues, like
resolving Iran's nuclear program. The US largely depends on Russia for moving
troops and military equipment away from Afghanistan through NATO's northern
distribution network and transportation hub in the Russian city of Ulyanovsk,
and also for maintaining security in Central Asia. In addition, Russia's
participation is essential in international efforts to resolve the ongoing war
in Syria and the most recent wave of violence in Iraq.
The fact that USA could advance its energy cum route agenda fairly easily with
timely help from Moscow following the Sept-11 hoax is a proof that USA cannot afford
to antagonize Russia beyond certain point. Without Russian help thousands
of American soldiers would have perished in Afghanistan and elsewhere. .
Notwithstanding their cold rhetoric on Ukraine and Malaysian plane crash
issues, the governments of Russia and the USA appear to be adopting a more
conciliatory rhetoric toward each other, demonstrating the constraints that
drive their foreign policies.
The anti-Russian rhetoric is only a cover directed at the internal public in
USA and EU countries. At the core there are tangible interests that ultimately
drive foreign policy. The west is certain they need to see how they will
cooperate with Russia in any new situation
Putin has adopted a course of de-escalation now, but he is also a hostage of
the propaganda policy of the past year.
Maybe USA and Russia have managed to take a step back now and ease tensions,
but, however, it does not mean that the crisis is over. Crippling the Russian
power to make it an ordinary, rather weak country like Pakistan or Afghanistan
remains one of the goals of US imperialism and most Americans want Russia to
take orders from Washington high command.
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