Delhi poll: Will Aam Aadmi return to power?
-DR. ABDUL RUFF COLACHAL
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Obviously, this is a trillion dollar question, unmatched by the power of Indian black money, partly being wasted in joint sports exercises in Indian towns with many small scale foreign sportsmen, bought by Indian money makers at huge prices, trying to help India shine abnormally. .

Even as Indian voters are under tremendous pressure to vote for the BJP and allies, Delhi state is getting ready for assembly polls to elect 70 MLAs. Sheila Dikshit, Delhi's former chief minister for 15 years, resigned after the Congress was routed in assembly elections, with she herself set to lose to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal. Dikshit submitted her resignation to Lt. Governor Najeeb Jung as vote count showed that the Congress may not win even a dozen seats in the 70-member assembly. Sheila Dikshit was later appointed as governor of Kerala by the UPA government but the BJP government which assumed office in May asked her to quit and later she was removed from the post.

While Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption movement and Kejriwal’s AAP played pivotal role in weakening the Congress party and its allies in the country, they could only make the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the ruling party.  AAP could not win even a single seat in Delhi for the parliament poll which the BJP swept in a historic manner.

Kejriwal is handicapped by the absence of a national leader like Anna Hazare to carry forward the anti-corruption struggle to demand a strong Lokpal Bill from the parliament. Kejriwal is no match for Hazare.  Hazare has proven that without him Arvind Kejriwal cannot succeed and, therefore, he refused to join or lead the AAP. But that gimmick only helped the BJP, which is just the Congress B, in a big way. 

Arvind Kejriwal quit on 14 February after opposition politicians blocked his bill, which would have created an independent body with the power to investigate politicians and civil servants suspected of corruption.

The very fact that Arvind Kejriwal did not continue to struggle for Lokpal Bill after his motion was defeated by Congress-BJP corrupt giants in Delhi assembly shows the AAP in a shabby manner. After all the Delhi people did not defeat the bill or his programs for the poor and common people.  Congress-BJP due did that.  AAP decision to contest the parliament poll to fight for the rights of common people should not have stopped the leaders from carrying forward the anti-corruption project.

The decision of having a fresh poll in Delhi has rejuvenated AAP and Arvind Kejriwal will continue to be the party’s chief ministerial candidate. While, the party has decided to continue with its previous poll plank – cheaper electricity, free water, end of corruption etc, it would also add new dimension to its campaign. But, one thing is clear. AAP is likely to engage into communication rather than going for agitation style politics during campaigning. 

Though the BJP hasn’t officially announced its CM candidate, in all likelihood it would be Jagdish Mukhi. But, the party’s unique selling proposition (USP) is ‘Brand Modi’, which the state BJP wants to project in a big way and use it to their advantage.

Judgment on AAP

Delhiites have, after being angry with what a section of media called Kejriwal’s betrayal of them in quitting the government without taking them into confidence, the reason to support him again, albeit hesitantly, as the best available party in India.

 In fact, Delhi is going to decide the fate of Aam Admi Party politics in the country.  And Delhi has been without a government since February. Delhi Assembly election result is being seen as an indicator of the mood of the urban electorate.

India’s capital, Delhi, is headed for fresh elections after the main parties said they were unable to form a new government.  Delhi has been without a government since February, when the then chief minister Arvind Kejriwal quit after an anti-corruption bill was blocked. Since then, the state has been governed by the federal authorities through Delhi Lieutenant-Governor Najeeb Jung.  As the Supreme Court has said the impasse must be resolved quickly. Lt-Gov Jung met leaders from all the three major political parties – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress and the anti-corruption Aam Aadmi Party (Common Man’s Party) – to find out whether they could reach an agreement. As all the above parties expressed their inability to form the government, Delhi ruler Lt-Gov Jung has recommended to President Pranab Mukherjee that he dissolve the Delhi assembly and pave the way for fresh elections

Even as Indian voters are under tremendous pressure to vote for the BJP and allies, Delhi state is getting ready for assembly polls to elect 70 MLAs. The BJP was the single largest party in the 70-member state assembly. In the December 2013 election, the party won 31 seats and one seat was won by its ally the Shiromani Akali Dal. But as the party did not have a majority in the assembly, Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party formed a government with support from the Congress party. The AAP had 28 seats while the Congress had just eight.

The most pertinent question is whether AAP would gain majority this time or it would again come second like last time? AAP supremo Kejriwal and his trusted lieutenant Manish Sisodia claim their party AAP will get an astounding majority. They have reiterated this time and again till the decision for a fresh election was communicated to the political parties by Delhi Lieutenant Governor Najeeb Jung.

The people of Delhi have witnessed that even during the short 49-day stint of AAP, the party had delivered on our promises to provide cheap electricity and free water. There was a decline in corruption. “Since, we didn’t have the majority, we couldn't function as we wanted to; but now we’re hopeful of coming back to power with a majority,” a senior AAP member said.

Debates among professional and strong community peer groups in Delhi, like auto-rickshawallahs, revolve around supporting the Aam Aadmi Party in the upcoming elections. Earlier, they were supporting either BJP or Congress party. The opinion is divided now. This was not the case during the last assembly election in November 2013. That time almost all of working people had voted for the AAP, they had even campaigned for the party much ahead of the election. But, since Arvind Kejriwal quit the government after 49 days and the promises made to them remained unfulfilled, they are again facing all those old problems. This has divided the camp. Now a section doesn't want to vote for AAP as they have lost faith in Kejriwal and they want to opt for the waiting BJP.

During the previous Delhi poll, nearly 90 percent of the total 80,000 autowallahs in the City supported Kejriwal, out of which 70 percent of them carried posters on the back of their three-wheelers. But, today the situation sounds different. It’s true that when AAP was in power, there was no unnecessary police harassment, which is now again the case. It’s not necessary that other people will again vote for AAP as they have got frustrated due to Kejriwal’s exit. Now, what is the guarantee that AAP would be able to make it this time?” questioned another auto-rickshaw driver at the stand.

AAP and BJP

As Delhi state is getting slowly ready to  go to poll for  an elected government in New Delhi, one thing is certain: Congress party  has even lost hopes of winning  the 8 seats item  had ( 4 of them were Muslim MLAs)  in the  previous  assembly. But the onlookers from outside Delhi may have one important question:  will Aam Admi secure at least a narrow majority in the state assembly or BJP would manage a majority and form the government?

Though AAP had been demanding a fresh election, the BJP had remained ambivalent. AAP and Arvind Kejriwal had been accusing the BJP of indulging in manipulation of horse-trading and that they had been trying to buy MLAs. “The central leadership didn’t want the BJP to form government without majority, whereas, the state unit wanted to do so. Delhi BJP believes it is only due to the image and credibility of Narendra Modi that they could win in the recent state elections in Maharashtra and Haryana, and BJP will form government in Delhi too. 

Since Kejriwal quit Delhi government, perception and equations have changed over the months. Can Kejriwal again rely on its vote bank to deliver like last year when it had given him 28 seats? 

The forthcoming election would clearly be between the BJP and the AAP, with no space for the Congress. But, commentators say there’s no real possibility of AAP getting a majority. Due to his own decisions and with the quitting of several party members at the top-level, AAP’s popularity amongst a large chunk of middle-class and upper middle-class voters in Delhi has drastically declined.

The point is AAP’s disadvantage is now BJP’s advantage. The middle-class voters might shift to BJP; whereas AAP may gain from Muslim areas, but in many slums and resettlement areas, the voters have questioned AAP and the decisions Kejriwal took as a CM then. A section of youth has shifted its base from AAP to BJP. The over-whelming support Kejriwal enjoyed in the first phase is no more there. On the other hand, the BJP by projecting Modi and party’s recent successes will make it a tough fight.

Although AAP failed to get seats in Delhi or Haryana, it could gain 4 seats in Punjab which could be the starting point for the AAP in national politics. Politics and vote banks are created now in India by polarization methods and media play crucial role in making the voters choose to vote at the polling booths whom they may not even like, let alone prefer. 

However, AAP expects Delhiites to consider the state poll differently than the parliamentary poll. People generally treat polls to the parliament and state assemblies separately and so AAP defeat in Delhi for the parliament can be considered as their support for BJP rule at the centre.

Kejriwal reformed?

All politicians play to the gallery with symbolic protests, but Kejriwal was trying to be too clever by half in this case.  Is a new and more mature Arvind Kejriwal emerging from the shambles he left behind in Delhi last February?  Has the parliamentary poll taught him lessons he must remember. Politicians always tell people what they want to hear, and not necessarily what they actually believe in or what they will do if elected. So only time will tell whether Kejriwal really means what he is saying now or his views are mere pre-election cautiousness by usual politicians intended to avoid alienating key constituencies before they vote.

Kejriwal's utterances this week show that he is choosing his words more carefully and also defining his politics more sensibly - indicating that defeat in May 2014 has made him a wiser politician. His decision not to contest the two recent state assembly elections, despite internal party pressures to contest at least some seats in Haryana and Maharashtra, shows that he is committed to building the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as a long-term political party. Parties need a base to build on, and right now Delhi offers the best platform for AAP.

However, people get an impression that the new Kejriwal is a completely changed politician. Some elements of the old anarchist Kejriwal remain. Consider the statement on his Delhi dharna: “When I sat on dharna as the CM, I did it for the safety of women. The media labelled it as a constitutional crisis. In 2007, Modi sat on three-day dharna in favour of Narmada Dam and media praised him. There is a media bias against us.” He has also discovered that there is no point positioning himself against the popularity of Modi. This is why, smartly, he has positioned AAP against BJP and not Modi. This is not only smart politics, but the right kind of politics.

This is in sharp contrast to what Kejriwal did from December 2013 going all the way to May 2014, when defeat stopped him for further self-destruct. He was everywhere - junking the Gujarat story one day, contesting against Narendra Modi in Varanasi another day, He even believed he was India’s new messiah, and every action, every speech of his cast him in that role.  Now, Kejriwal agrees that it was a mistake resigning after 49 days as CM. The middle class in Delhi could be angry with AAP because Kejriwal team resigned from power. But they feel our 49 days of governance was excellent. They will vote again for AAP

The overall assessment is that Delhi is indeed seeing a new, improved Kejriwal whom defeat has taught a few lessons. The biggest lesson he has to learn is that the idea of AAP – as a party that strives for transparency and against corruption – is larger than the idea of Kejriwal, a politician who tries to be holier-than-thou and is too clever for his own good.

Observations

Obviously, AAP fortunes, in the background of a rising BJP,  now hangs in the hope of the  party’s best possible performance during the  poll campaign  and how Delhiites would respond to Kejriwal’s feel of repentance and his promises.  

Obviously, AAP is now in a dilemma as to its approach to the Congress party which it could cripple badly. In fact BJP made maximum use of anti-corruption movement in the country. As the corporatist and caste party promoting the interests of the rich , BJP Is not going to end corruption in India; it can only further aggravate the problem and take full economic advantages.

Of course, since BJP is having control over sizeable number of Hindus in India and abroad, AAP cannot win a majority in the assembly without the support of Muslims, among other sections of minority communities.  However, since the Muslims are disappointed with their traditional party Congress and they are scared of the BJP-RSS policies for them in future, Muslims would choose a neutral party like AAP.  That the Congress party  deliberately  harmed Muslims by many ways is a big shock to Muslims in India and the  destruction of  historic Babri Mosque and  post-destruction court drams have alienated Muslims very badly as they become disillusioned with the rotten Indian politics and system. .

Genuine secularism in practice - and not as a tool to just fool the Muslims, as the mainstream parties do - should be the goal of AAP, to be implemented step by step and honestly.  Kejriwal need not steer away from the democratic secularism. 

BJP's communal fanaticism as well as corruption by both Congress and BJP and criminal politics in India could be the useful themes of Aam Aadmi Party. However, there are a few who want to remain loyal to the AAP thinking that if it comes to power gaining majority, their problems would be taken care of.

Delhiites  who are behind the formation of a new party called AAP appear now to  see the  reason to protect and promote it in Delhi so that common people  are not punished by BJP government at the centre. In various localities across Delhi, AAP leaders are engaged in discussions with local people on civic amenities and issues of concern through a new initiative called Delhi Dialogue.

Yes, AAP deserves another chance to form the government and rule Delhi state with majority on its own and Delhiites may not feel averse to that idealism.

India does not need the poisonous phenomena like Hindutva fanaticism and anti-Muslim hatred to become a strong nation.  AAP should know that supporting the Muslims problems as the largest minority of India in solving their genuine is not a crime or a shameful act as the Hindutva outfits claim or Congress party hints at. 

Kejriwal and other leaders would make an all out effort to create the needy impression that they are together and shall fight united for the rights and privileges of common people of Delhi and India.