Presidential poll in Sri Lanka: The known devil Rajapakse likely to lose presidency!

-DR. ABDUL RUFF COLACHAL

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ONE

Sri Lanka is facing a crucial Presidential election on 8 January 2015 since the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) came to power in 1956. The incumbent President Mahinda Rajapakse is the United People's Freedom Alliance's candidate and is seeking a third term in office. The United National Party (UNP)-led opposition coalition have chosen to field Maithripala Sirisena, the former Minister of Health in Rajapakse’s government and general secretary of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) - the main constituent party of the UPFA - as the common candidate. For the first time since S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike split from the United National Party (UNP), the two elite parties come together to reconfigure the two-party system in an attempt to overthrow the “devilish” Rajapaksa regime, which has gone too far down the path of authoritarianism. He knows too well that no dictator has lasted for ever. However, he has joined, willingly, the list of Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin, Idi Amin – who all had come and gone. 

From the outset, the election has been one of political crisis. Rajapakse called the poll two years early after ramming through a constitutional amendment allowing him to stand for a third term. It was a desperate attempt to consolidate his regime amid growing opposition to his IMF-dictated austerity policies and police-state methods.  The Rajapakse government is culprit over the military’s war crimes in the long-running communal war against the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) that ended in 2009, after killing thousands of Tamils. .

Once again, the Rajapaksa regime is framing this election as a vote on its war victory and push for development. Meanwhile, the Opposition led by SLFP stalwart Maithripala Sirisena has set up a campaign against rising authoritarianism and corruption, centered on abolishing the highly centralised and undemocratic Executive. With the Opposition in disarray and unable to find a credible candidate, Rajapaksa was so sure of victory that he even said that he would be the only candidate.  The opposition coalition has been strengthened by the support it is receiving from a range of minorities, minor parties and civic groups while there are reported signs of considerable erosion of the support base of the ruling coalition reflected in the well-planned defections of its allies. 

Sri Lanka's main Muslim party quit the government and pledged support to the opposition in a move seen as the biggest setback yet to President Mahinda Rajapakse's re-election bid. The Sri Lanka Muslim Congress leader Rauf Hakeem also announced his own resignation as justice minister and said he would now work for the victory of Maithripala Sirisena, the opposition candidate in the January 8 election.

The election is more than an attempt at a regime change. It is an attempt to dismantle the Rajapaksa Family autocracy and replace it with something that is more acceptable. It is, by far, one of the most important elections in recent times in Sri Lanka which could have far reaching consequences for the country. 

According to the constitution, the normal term of office for a president is six years, although an incumbent may call an election at any time after four years in office In November 2009, buoyed by the government's defeat of the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in May 2009, incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa called an early presidential election In the elections held in January 2010 Rajapaksa secured a second term in office, defeating common opposition candidate Sarath Fonseka In February 2010 the Supreme Court ruled that Rajapaksa's second term would begin in November 2010, and was accordingly sworn in on 19 November 2010. In September 2010 Parliament, which was controlled by Rajapaksa's UPFA, passed the eighteenth amendment to the constitution, removing the two term limit on presidents, allowing Rajapaksa to run for a third term.  On 20 November 2014 Rajapaksa issued a proclamation calling for a presidential election at which he would seek re-election. 

The current figures released by an independent agency are that support for Rajapaksa was 15%, for Sirisena 85%. However, this can change dramatically due to violence, vote buying or plain election fraud. 

TWO

Most Sri Lankans agree that presidency should be limited to two terms. Sri Lankans consider most important are cost of living (32.2%), job opportunities (12.9%) and education (9.8%). For the Sinhalese community the three most important issues are cost of living (34%), job opportunities (12.4%) and security (10.9%). For the Tamil, Up Country Tamil and Muslim communities the important issues in order are cost of living, education and job opportunities.  In the 2010 elections, Mahinda Rajapakse received a total of 6,015,934 votes (57.88%) and Sarath Fonseka 4,173,185 votes (40.15%). A gap of about 17.5% points existed between the two. The total polled was 74.49% (Department of Elections 2010). All other candidates secured between 1.00-2.00% of total votes only. 

Rajapakse has faced accusations of increasing authoritarianism since his last victory, in the 2010 presidential elections. Critics saw the removal of Sri Lanka's Chief Justice in 2013 amid corruption allegations as a challenge to the independence of the judiciary. 

A "known devil" Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse, who is seeking a third term as president, seems to face uphill task now  and has sought  Tamil votes as well, urged the remaining minority Tamils to back him in next week's elections. Rajapakse is popular among the Sinhalese majority for his military action in Tamil areas to finish off the Tamils stock and barrel but detested among Tamils for the bloody defeat of Tamil Tiger rebels in 2009. The Lankan state terror war on Tamil minority populations with help from Indian government that claimed up to 100,000 lives and also ended a 26-year civil conflict. The death toll escalated in its final stages, when the government and rebels battled it out as thousands of civilians were hemmed in to a tiny strip of land. 

Rajapakse said Tamil voters should now trust him. There is no other go for Tamils living at the mercy of the Singhalese government.  "There is a saying that the known devil is better than the unknown angel," he told an election meeting in the mainly Tamil city of Jaffna. He said his government had improved infrastructure in the Tamil region after the conflict ended. "We gave you electricity, we gave you new schools and now we want to give you proper water supplies," he added, the Tamils should vote for him. 

The main opposition has accused him of using the military to deter Tamils from voting on the January 8 poll. Both sides have been accused of atrocities in Sri Lanka's long civil war. The main Tamil party has already endorsed Rajapakse's major rival for the presidency, Maithripala Sirisena. 

Obviously, since the premature announcement of a new election by the President, things have changed. The opposition coalition has been strengthened and the ruling coalition has been weakened by the defections of high profile figures and provincial activists. Political blunders committed by way of arrogant behavior in nationally broadcast TV shows and reported attacks on artists and opposition events and stages can only register negative images of a government campaigning primarily on external factors rather than the opposition’s main complaint about good governance, corruption, wastages, politicization of the judiciary, public service, academia and even the security forces. Militarisation has been a key issue of discussion along with the restricted freedoms for the media, and wider public.

Defections are a major feature of Sri Lankan politics. Defections from the ruling coalition have dominated the political stage though there have been some notable defections from the opposition to the government side also sparingly. As a result of nearly 26 MPS defecting from the ruling coalition, including those from the SLFP and other parties, the stage is set for a sharper contest between Rajapakse and the rest who are opposing him. The emerging trend seems to be for ‘a change’ in the governance of Sri Lanka rather than maintaining the status quo.

The political messages in the Presidential election from both coalitions this time are becoming clearer. So are the strategies of both coalitions and trends in voter sentiment as revealed through some surveys and public attendance in political rallies. 

Early signs of voter intentions are also starting to creep into the public view via various sources. People at large seem to be fed up with the ruling dispensation and there is a growing mood for change in the cities and the countryside. This is based on the sense of injustices experienced by people in public life, trend toward authoritarianism, and a whole host of other factors.

People refer to a discernible ‘mood change’ among the voters even though some admire the development work accomplished by the Rajapakse family during their rein. They also refer to a greater sense of frustration among the average folk due to the reported corruption of politicians, partisan nature of governance, family rule, cost of living pressures and the disregard for rule of law by those in authority.

One side is arguing for change in the governance style and processes adopted under the executive presidential system in the midst of charges of nepotism, corruption, bad governance, and politicization of institutions while the other side is arguing for stability and national security against perceived enemies of the nation, i.e. Western countries and Tamil diaspora elements.

A hybrid regime has been established after the 2010 Presidential and subsequent parliamentary elections. A hybrid regime is a mix of authoritarian and democratic elements where formal democratic processes combine with a strong incumbent party that seeks to limit the organizational capacity of the opposition as well as people’s role .

The 2010 parliamentary and presidential elections established what he describes as a ‘hybrid regime’ similar to the models that have emerged in South East Asian countries such as Singapore and Malaysia, although formal democratic institutions such as the legal system and the electoral process are functional and operative, we note, however, that they can be skillfully manipulated in gaining power and maintaining regime dominance”

Instead of voter apathy, a high degree of enthusiasm among voters including in the countryside has been generated by the contest for power led by two SLFP stalwarts leading two coalitions. Will all this translates into a victory by the opposition coalition led by Maithripala? Or will the incumbent be able to pull out a rabbit out of the hat in the last week of electioneering –against all odds – and be able to surprise everybody? To gain an insight, we ought to reflect on the kind of regime in place and the changes opposition parties are seeking.

The net result of this electoral process and its manipulation of a hybrid system is the emergence and consolidation of a veritable ‘one party government’ where the dominant party (which in this case is the Rajapakse-led SLFP government) due to a large parliamentary majority at its disposal “accompanied by a weakened opposition, gives the government of the day complete access to, and control of, key state institutions and resources which are used to entrench the dominant party”.  It is in such a context that the Presidential election campaign 2015 is being prosecuted by the ruling coalition led by Rajapakse and the opposition coalition led by Sirisena.

THREE

Lying off the southern tip of India, the tropical island of Sri Lanka has attracted visitors for centuries with its natural beauty. The island fell under Portuguese and Dutch influence after the 16th century, and Britain began its conquest in the 1790s. SL has been scarred by a long and bitter civil war arising out of ethnic tensions between the majority Sinhalese and the Tamil minority in the northeast.

After more than 25 years of violence the conflict ended in May 2009, when government forces seized the last area controlled by Tamil Tiger rebels. But recriminations over abuses by both sides continue.

There was a long-established Tamil minority in the north and east, and Britain also brought in Tamil labourers to work the coffee and tea plantations in the central highlands. This made the island, then called Ceylon, a major tea producer. The majority Buddhist Sinhalese resented what they saw as British favouritism towards the mainly-Hindu Tamils.

The growth of assertive Sinhala nationalism after independence fanned the flames of ethnic division, and civil war erupted in the 1980s against Tamils pressing for self-rule.

Most of the fighting took place in the north. But the conflict also penetrated the heart of Sri Lankan society, with Tamil Tiger rebels carrying out devastating suicide bombings in the capital Colombo in the 1990s.

The violence killed more than 70,000 people, damaged the economy and harmed tourism in one of South Asia's potentially most prosperous societies.

International concern was raised about the fate of civilians caught up in the conflict zone during the final stages of the war, the confinement of some 250,000 Tamil refugees to camps for months afterwards, and allegations that the government had ordered the execution of captured or surrendering rebels.

A UN report published in 2011 said both sides in the conflict committed war crimes against civilians. The Sri Lankan government rejected this and later reports as biased.

In September 2013 the main Tamil opposition party won a convincing victory in elections to a devolved provincial council in the north, which was set up after constitutional talks with the government. Commonwealth observers reported army intimidation of voters.

President Mahinda Rajapakse had a clear, overwhelming majority or a reasonable majority in many districts while a few provinces and districts where the opposition candidate at the time Sarath Fonseka had a majority. Then on the basis of the currently dominant defections, other political issues and events, a tentative prediction about the result of the forthcoming election is that the known devil is likely to return to power to pursue the known policies.

It is not possible to forecast the results of an election without systematically conducted surveys of voter intentions like in other countries by reputed polling agencies. The results from 2010 election can be contrasted with politically significant events and issues dominating 2015 election in order to formulate a view about where the trend is.

Nothing is impossible in Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka as has been documented for a long time. Rajapaksa is unlikely to be the exception to the rule of end  of dictators. It is now for the majority Sinhalese to deal with the problem.