Beyond Delhi polls: Now AAP needs to spread its base across India

-Dr. Abdul Ruff

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Today the AAP is clearly overtaking BJP in the estimates of Delhiites. Until recently, the consensus among poll analysts was that Delhi would be a cake-walk for the BJP what with its spectacular performance in parliamentary as well as assembly elections in other states. 

A more recent pre-poll survey, conducted by Hindustan Times and C Fore Survey revealed that AAP’s vote share has gone up by 9 percent from 24.9 percent in the 2013 assembly elections; the party is estimated to get 33.9 percent in the upcoming one. AAP would have a comfortable majority and Kejriwal would be the CM again. 39 percent of Delhi’s electorate wanted AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal as the next chief minister, highest amongst his competitors. Similarly, the C Fore Survey also revealed that 43 percent of Delhiites want Kejriwal as their next CM.

If this poll has got it right, AAP is not only going to get a majority, but a landslide win. A rising 10-percentage point difference in a largely two-horse race is unlikely to be reversed in the course of a week. So, unless something dramatic alters voters’ minds over the next week before polling on 7 February, Kejriwal is still the man on the inside track. Barring an unforeseen miraculous shift in fortunes, Kejriwal’s tenacity would have scored over Amit Shah’s blunders. Shah, the man who had made winning a habit, may get his comeuppance this time.

The tide of political fortune seldom flows unidirectional for too long. The tide that brought Narendra Modi to power in May 2014 and seemed to overwhelm every party standing in its path is now hitting the rocks in Delhi.  Arvind Kejriwal, who seemed to get nothing right in the first half of last year, has now reversed his slide, aided by the complete misreading of his challenge in Delhi by the BJP.

From announcing regularisation of slum colonies to paradropping former chief cop and associate of Anna Hazare Kiran Bedi in Delhi BJP state unit to making political capital of the Obama visit, but nothing seems to be working for it.  The former IPS officer is not pulling crowds in Delhi and not a match for AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal. BJP president Amit Shah is worried about the lack of support that Bedi is receiving from the people of Delhi. Moreover, she appears inexperienced in electoral wordplay and seems a novice before the battle-tested Kejriwal. Political commentators too are uncertain whether naming Bedi as CM candidate is a master stroke by the BJP or their biggest blunder. 

The unbridled communal activities of the Hindutva forces, so far seen as the secret ally of the BJP, have made it progressively worse for the party since it came to power last year with their saffron statements and conversion strategies. Also, BJP workers are unhappy with the party inviting and encouraging former Congress and AAP leaders to contest on BJP tickets instead of their own. RSS accusation about Muslim children’s madarsas as teaching terrorism is likely to have alienated urban population of Delhi in addition to causing loss in terms of minority votes, including 12 percent Muslim and 2 percent Christian votes. Most of the youth, between the age group of 18 and 30 have a secular mindset and are likely to be alienated from supporting a party with such a primitive mindset.  General public impression is PM Narendra Modi indirectly encourages the communal commentary and the damage done will be hard to undo.

To make matters worse for the BJP, the Aam Aadmi Party cadre has a two-month head start over the BJP when it comes to campaigning at the ground level. Thousands of AAP members have come to Delhi from Bangalore, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Punjab and Haryana to assist the party in the Delhi elections. Their innovative campaigning style is not only getting the attention of the public but also diminishing the Modi wave.

It is obvious that Kejriwal made the right calls after his party’s ignominious defeat in the Lok Sabha polls and ill-advised challenges to Modi from Gujarat to Varanasi. The first call he made was to keep AAP away from all assembly contests and focusing exclusively on Delhi. This was shrewd for several reasons. A party that just lost almost everywhere needed to concentrate its efforts and limited resources in the one place it had the maximum chances of winning. Kejriwal rightly concentrated his resources fully in the place the BJP had ignored till last month. He hit the enemy in his weakest spot, and he has gained as a result.

It is a fact that the Congress Party, waiting in wings, can bounce back because it is the only alternative available. In the minds of the people there are only two parties, Congress and the BJP. When they do not find one delivering, they return the other which they had rejected previously. They are stuck with the two.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a movement against corruption which converted itself into a political party, can be an alternative provided it expands its base. The AAP has secured less than three percent of votes in the election. Moreover, the anti-corruption stand it has taken is laudable. But there has to be an ideology or vision if it wants to attract voters.

It messed up a great opportunity it got in Delhi. Even if the party has admitted its mistakes, though belatedly, it will take time for that blemish to go. The party has to work in the field. It cannot depend on slogans alone. Power that has got concentrated at the top, more specifically its leader Arvind Kejriwal, must spread. There is no other way. 

A strong leader is necessary to guide the cadres and people but he should not concentrate all powers in his hands. In a democracy leaders must trust his followers and only with the support of followers and trusted associates that a good leader can function freely and make decisions as far as possible collectively.

Unless AAP reaches South India it cannot become a national party.  Thanks to d indirect support from Congress party, BJP has reached everywhere from north to south, east to west in India. Not only that. BJP has formed its first ever cabinet in Karnataka, signaling its slow spread to other states as well.

Indians eagerly are looking for genuine leaders to fight corruption and ensure equal justice to all. The acceptance of a new party AAP in Delhi and its fair performance in Punjab in parliamentary clearly vindicates the predicament of Indians for a genuine democracy.

The pathetic looking AAP representatives appearing on TV channels with Gandhi caps for debate can do more harm to themselves than those AAP leaders who left the party on vague grounds.

Delhi is not India. But corruption is rampant and spread entire nation and only AAP has the will to fight corruption.

The Aam Aadmi Party has managed to win back supporters in New Delhi and has now taken a lead over the BJP in the Delhi Assembly polls, a pre-poll survey conducted by APB-Nielsen news. According to the survey, 50 percent of those polled were likely to vote for the Kejriwal-led party.

The aim of AAP should now be to replace BJP at the centre and keep Congress and BJP under check. Delhi poll should be the beginning for that. India badly needs a credible  political alternative  for Congress and BJP.