By Sajjad Ahmad

Dated: March 28, 2008

Rawalpindi - Pakistan

The two high profile US diplomats arrived in Islamabad couple of days before and they toured the whole country, meeting with almost ever single Leader of every single party which has seats in National Assembly or in any Provincial Assemblies or at least have potential of street protest. In this regard, this was one of the most unique visit of US diplomats in Pakistan. The purpose, as usual, was unclear but everybody knows what it was meant for. The diplomats had repeatedly tried to give decent justification of their visit, but the outcome of the visit proved that the concern were true.

Today, Mr. Zardari and one of the two US diplomats had held a press conference. In which, Mr. Zardari announced that the so-called war on terror will keep going and Pakistan will not withdraw from this war. If we analyse the visit of the US diplomats of Pakistan in the light of today's joint press conference of Mr. Zardari & Mr. Richard Boucher, we will clearly come to the end that why they were doing rocket tour of the country from MazaffarAbad to Gwadar and from Karachi to Torkhum. And also we will easily figure out what have they got for them.

After arrival in Pakistan, the two US diplomats had not spend a minute free and keep visiting almost all the prominent figures in the country. They visited Rawalpindi / Islamabad, Pashawar, Lahore, Karachi and met with President of Pakistan Gen (Ret) Pervaiz Musharraf, Prime Minister Gillani, Head of PPP Mr. Zardari, Bar Council President Aitazaz, suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar, Head of PML (N) Nawaz Shariff, Head of PML (Q) Ch. Shujaat, Head of ANP Mr. Wali, leaders from MQM, Moulana Fazal ur Rahman and many others.

And now departing with a simple joint press conference with Mr. Zardari, in which Mr. Zardari had finally given the policy statement of the current government that Pakistan will not take exit from the so called war on terror.

The question is why? Why the US diplomats felt it necessary to consult with the whole leadership of the country before Mr. Zardari could make this policy statement? Is this Mr. Zardari, who made this clear to US diplomats to obtain consensus from all parties on this issue before he make this policy statement? Is President Musharraf is still considering so-called war on terror is in Pakistan favour and he engaged US to get Pakistani leadership on board over this issue? What if before this visit, Mr. Zardari might have been announced party policy over this issue? Was there a risk of protest by opposition parties or from the nation?

One thing is clear that US had made sure that there will be no resistance, if Mr. Zardari announce his policy regarding so called war on terror. As many of the government benches occupiers were previously raising their voices against this so called war on terror and criticising the previous government and were demanding to stop exit this war. Now, when they are in government, they have concerns about the current opposition benches that they would be questioning them in the Parliament or in the streets.

But now, as we saw that immediately after the declaration of official policy of current government regarding so called war on terror, there would be no significant reaction from any big or small party. It would be interesting to analyse, how the US had made sure that no one will be speaking against this policy of the new government.

President Musharraf is heavily dependent over US support for his Presidency and also for his safety and he will never like to disagree with what the US wants to do in Pakistan. Especially, after he resigned from the Army. His powers decreased to the lowest level and the only weapon left in his hands is 58 2(B). However, it is very very unlikely that he would be using this power in his defence. As the new Army Chief clearly giving indications of military back off from civil and political battle fields, Mr. Musharraf would find him all alone if he ever tried to do so. Additionally, there is already an example of restoration of government by the Supreme Court of Pakistan in the past. Probably, this is one of the reasons, why Mr. Nawaz Sheriff is demanding restoration of suspended judges. He is finely demonstration his learning experience and capabilities to apply it. Keeping this fact in mind, there is only hope left for him and that is US.

The new Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Gillani is well known personality of PPP. He is not only polite and gentle and also very honest to and loyal to his party. Mr. Gillani would be doing everything exactly, he would be dictated to do so. As Mr. Gillani knows that he would be nothing without the support of his party, PPP. There will be no chance that he will be doing something without obtaining guidelines from the PPP, infect from Mr. Zardari. Meetings of US Diplomats with Mr. Gillani were merely a matter of formalities.

It is noted that US Diplomats met with Mr. Zardari for at least two times. In early meetings between them, my guess is that, they discussed the probabilities of Pakistan's future role under the new government and US Diplomats must had agreed the framework with him about how to obtain the consensus from all big and small parties, before Mr. Zardari announce Pakistan's continues support for so called war on terror.

One of the important meetings of US Diplomats was with Moulana Fazal ur Rahman. Who has very good political presence in bordering areas, where most of the Pakistani are getting murdered with US missiles. Though, Mr. Fazal ur Rahman had given a very good speech in the first session of Parliament. Where he said that the US has no right to declare every bearded person, a terrorist. But it seems that he is also half agreed over this issue. While keeping the current political situation in bordering areas, it is obvious that he must have advocated against this war on terror and also, must have demanded for solid proof before any aggression by US or Pakistani Military. Perhaps, he is trying to help himself understand that he cannot stop this war all alone.

The other big player is ANP, which has won good number of seats in Provincial and National Assembly and did a good come back. ANP had three main points in its agenda. 1. Change of name of NWFP province, 2. Calabash Dam, 3. ANP also opposed this so called war on terror, in which thousands of Pakhtoons are sacrificing their lives. Overall, ANP consider itself a Pakhtoon Voice.

PML (Q) had also been taken in confidence by US diplomats and made sure that they will not remembering the promises of the previous opposition and current rulers of the country, which they had committed on the issue of so called war on terror. While the PML (Q) had actively taken part in this fight, it would be always less unlikely that they will every give tough time to the current government over this issue.

Many others also taken into confidence. For example MQM. But many others had not been simply taken into confidence but they were approached to do certain arrangements for different parties, as the price that they will not opposing this so called war on terror. Such Aitazaz Ahsan, suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar etc.

The President of the Pakistan needs a surety that the old Judiciary, if restored, will not be taking revenge from him. Mr. Zardari has his own concerns regarding corruption cases in the higher courts against him. So both personality must had used their position to convince the US diplomats to do certain arrangements without they give green signal to the US diplomats. Similarly Bar Council President and suspended Chief Justice had their own initiatives, which must have been presented to them. This matter directly belongs to the judiciary, so I will not prefer to talk about it. Who knows... that I will be receiving a legal notice from restored judiciary???

If we try to summarize the outcome of recent visit of two US diplomats and try to explain that WHO GET WHAT?

US obtained surety from Pakistan that it will not withdraw from the so-called war on terror or at least will keep providing logistic support to the American forces. As without this, the American forces would be unable to survive in Afghanistan. While the President of Pakistan get assured by the US that he will not be touched by anybody including the current government and Mr. Nawaz Shariff and if he has to leave the country. The US would be giving him permanent visa. Thus another President of Pakistan would be leaving the country and spending rest of his life in other country. I do not when we will suitable enough for the retiring Presidents and Prime Ministers of our country to stay and live within Pakistan.

Nawaz Shariff might have given more than he took from the US Diplomats. Perhaps, he would be receiving his reward for his favour about war on terror in future. But Mr. Zardari needs something immediately. He wants stable government of PPP and he would be looking for more aid and financial support from the US government to help PPP government rule the country nicely. It is also very likely that Mr. Nawaz Shariff also looking for same reward from the US as he is also a partner of the current government. ANP would have been assured preferred treatment by the government. As they are very optimistic this time regarding their decades old demand of name change in NWFP. However, it is also very likely that Mr. Nawaz Shariff and Mr. Zardari would try to negotiate and get approval from ANP to build Kalabagh Dam. Moulana Fazl ur Rahman might be the biggest loser in this game. As the government finally announced its commitment with so called war on terror. However, he might be hopeful that the intensity of this war would decrease upto some acceptable level.