Developments in the Pakistan region of Waziristan and Afghanistan have altered the balance of forces between regular armies and religious militants. These developments, indirectly but effectively, create new dangers for India.They threaten the Pakistani state even more.
The Afghan Taliban war effort has been based in Pakistan, particularly in the tribal regions of North and South Waziristan adjacent to Afghanistan. The local militants also call themselves Taliban.The Pakistani army appears to have made a substantial effort to gain control of North Waziristan,loosing around 700 soldiers.... ..Waziristan also contains a large concentration of al-Qaeda terrorists.They now have a safe area and improved access to the rest of the world.
The autonomy of Taliban-ruled Waziristan will have a wide impact.Waziristan can easily become a base to seize the Pakistani state.The main cause of instability is the weakening of the Pakistan state itself.Musharraf faces a profound dilemma.He need his army to protect him from both itself and jihadists.It is difficult to do both.Musharraf commands no emotional loyalty from his officers and soldiers.His way of ensuring obedience has been to expel jihadi-minded officers from senior ranks, keep top generals in position for only short periods,and offer generous retirement packages to senior officers.Musharraf has sought to promote to top ranks only those motivated primarily by money.But this policy has never made good for fighting armies.
There's a split between the upper ranks and the middle and the lower ranks.It is only the upper ranks, the top few thousands of an army of half a million,who have received the material rewards of military rule, and who have been selected for their greed..The middle and lower rankss are left with little but ordinary salaries and religious motivation to sustain them.they are well aware of the nature of the senior officer corps.
In short, the Pakistani state rests on an exceptionally narrow foundation at present.The specter of jihadis commanding a large population and a nuclear arsenal now faces India, America,and the world.
* Sanjoy Banerjee teaches international relations at
San Francisco University .
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