Moscow Diary: Emerging Equations

After successfully leading Russia for over 8 years to all-round development and image building and having found his successor in Dmitry Medvedev, Russian leader Vladimir Putin quit presidency and resumed his job as Russia's new Premier in Beliy Dom (White House) overlooking the grand Moscow River flowing very close to the Kremlin the other side. Though Putin had to quit presidency to respect the Constitution stipulating two consecutive terms, Russians know Putin has not taken over a small position in exchange for of Presidency. Immensely popular and at the height of his powers, Putin wants Russians to see him as still in charge and to anticipate his return to the presidency in 2012, which he has not ruled out. Western critics now expect Russia , after a clearly smooth transfer of power, to lead to power struggle, at a later stage, between Putin and Medvedev, if and when the latter would prove himself to be independent of Putin. The driving force behind this forecast is Medvedev's assertion during inauguration for establishing society of people with economic progress and Human Rights record.

To make the agenda, of making Russia a really great super power, fairly transparent, Dmitry Medvedev has pledged to continue the policies pursued by Putin and to bolster the country's economic development and civil rights, in what may signal a departure from his predecessor's "heavy-handed" tactics, criticized in the West. The question of who will wield the real power in the Kremlin continues to fascinate, puzzle and perplex the world. More than that, whether or not Putin would strive to make Beliy Dom more powerful and strategically important than the Presidential Kremlin by making the office of premier more powerful than the presidency by suitably amending the Constitution in due course. That would take Russia to among the so-called parliamentary democracies.

An aura of authority always hangs over whoever is king of the Kremlin. World leaders wonder how much power President Medvedev, who gratefully looks at Putin, looks humble and also talks simple, will actually wield and whether Putin would try to undermine him. Pledged  before the entire nation and world his resolve to carry forward reforms undertaken by Putin and provide for greater freedoms to citizens, Medvedev would embark upon  a greater canvas than Putin might allow for his domestic operations.

At outset, with Vladimir Putin deciding to enhance his prime-ministerial power from Beliy Dom, it looks there might occur a conflict situation sooner than later in Russian power game, leading to a fight for the Kremlin. However, there seems to be smooth functioning between them functioning on either side of the Moskva River . Assumption being, Putin and Medvedev have worked together since the early 1990s and have stressed their solid friendship and full agreement on Russia 's future course. Given their long time association, the future relations will also expected to be harmonious too. Also, the fact remains that Putin has transferred power to Dmitry Medvedev, one of the Deputy Premiers, on a perfect understanding that Putin as premier would continue to wield substantial power, even more than Medvedev. It is clear Putin still remains in charge as he has a large majority in parliament.

Conflict?

True, Putin stepped down as president and assumed Russian premiership, constitutionally a subordinate position to presidency. Medvedev, proposed by Putin, has become president precisely because the 55-year-old Putin was barred by the constitution from running for a third consecutive presidential term in the March elections. Russia would have reelected him for a third term as well, if Putin had sought the same after amending the Constitution accordingly, but he refrained from doing that , nor did he extent his present term by few more years, though he has been arguing for a 7-year term for Russia president.

A strong person, Putin in "White House", therefore, will not be just an ex-president, but he will also lead Russia as before and carry the can for rising inflation and all the other grumbles that come the way of a Russian prime minister. "The president is the guarantor of the constitution and sets the main domestic and foreign policy guidelines," Putin declared in February. "But the highest executive power in the land lies with the government" whose task, he said, is not just to oversee the economy and social policy, but "to create conditions to ensure defense and security".

At one point it appeared, Putin intended to hand the full powers of the presidency to his chosen successor and step aside. But the powerful contingent of "Siloviki", the veterans of the secret services armed with powers who dominated the government under Putin, guide the formulations of Russian policies. These powerful figures are key players in Kremlin politics and have been given leading roles in major businesses, including oil companies and aircraft and automobile manufacturers under state control and would have made the new incumbent's existence miserable. They see Putin as the key to preserving their positions and continued access to financial flows. Hence Putin changed his mind to quit Kremlin by making Medvedev president, as infighting between rival Kremlin factions spilled into the open, threatening to undermine political stability. Some of the Siloviki even opposed Putin's choice of a junior Dmitry Medvedev. 

Having campaigned as Putin's protégé and tied himself to his mentor's policies as soon as his victory became known, it is no surprise that Putin will continue to support Medvedev and play a central role. With Putin in control, the new president is confident that there is no risk of political instability. Medvedev is confident that they could jointly face any crises both on domestic and foreign fronts. Yet there appears to be still plenty of scope for redefining roles between who are going to share power functioning from offices both sides of Moskva River .

But whether or not there would a conflict scenario in Moscow , Putin is sure to be in the driver's seat for some time now and continue to guide the destiny of Russia on domestic as well as foreign fronts, while president Medvedev would coordinate his actions with those of his former boss. All indicators point to Putin retaining power so long as Russians prefer him to any body else and his popularity ratings continue to be at above 80% as they are now. Many of his former staff members are back in his White House adding importance to the building.

Kremlin and White House  

The custodian of Moscow White House, Premier Putin, who earlier headed the FSB, was chosen as his successor by late President Boris Yeltsin and approved by intelligence services networks to be the second president, cannot be expected to be less important than president Medvedev who now controls all-powerful Kremlin. His ever-growing polarity ratings show that Vladimir would direct the course of onward march of Russia to make it a real super power again. Putin legitimately boasted that under his leadership Russia "had not just changed but become a different country". As a chosen leader of Russia , Putin has been the image builder of new Russia since 2000 and has brought the Kremlin back to its original glory.

When first Russian president Boris Yeltsin left the Kremlin eight years ago, he had given Vladimir Putin, as a gesture symbolizing the transfer of power to Russia 's new president, the pen he had used to sign important documents and decrees. But when Putin left the Kremlin in May, he took the pen with him. That means Premier Putin has clearly signaled that he intends to remain Russia 's principal leader even while staying outside the Kremlin. Putin would strengthen the office of Prime Minister. He wants to redefine the relationship between president and prime minister.

As Prime Minister, Putin will now control the budget and oversee gigantic state corporations, including Gazprom, the world's largest natural gas producer. These corporations, staffed with Putin loyalists, have allowed Russia to reassert its global might. Putin's predominance in Russian politics and governance will make him remain Russia 's most popular politician for the foreseeable future, which will give him huge influence over the man he mentored as his successor. Since his United Russia bloc dominating the house Putin is sure to continue to wield huge influence in the country.

Critics accused President Putin of concentrating too much power in the Kremlin, pointing to controversial changes in the way provincial governors and parliamentary deputies are elected.  Putin said Russia must develop as a "free and democratic" country. But he stressed that Russia "will decide for itself the pace, terms and conditions of moving towards democracy. We are a free nation and our place in the modern world will be defined only by how successful and strong we are".

Putin also said Russians who had saved money overseas should be encouraged to return capital to Russia . He called for a flat 13% tax on all undeclared revenue. "Tax authorities have no rights to terrorize business," Putin said. Massive demands for back taxes crippled Russia 's largest oil firm Yukos - and its plight has alarmed many western investors. Putin wants "radically new approaches" to track new threats and government's new efforts to combat "terrorism". He called for to tackle the threat.

 Since Prime Minister has to look the president for his survival, critics say that Putin might even be under severe pressure from President eventually. The Russian constitution allows the president to reshuffle his cabinet whenever he wishes. Putin shuffled his premiers and cabinets several times as his predecessor Yeltsin also did. Yeltsin was frequently changing his premier because he trying them to tip for presidency after him and Putin became the ultimate winner.

Given the history of functioning of Russian premiers since 1992, one question is repeatedly asked in Russian as well as foreign press: Will Putin have to worry now that one day he may wake up to find he has been sacked? Not exactly! Putin controls both the Unity Russia party which he inherited recently as its chief and the parliament. His party has a 70 percent majority, which gives it the power to change the constitution, block legislation or impeach the president.  But Putin seems to be taking no chances that Medvedev will turn against him. Medvedev is no more a Deputy Premier and as President now, it would be watched if Medvedev might still have the Premier to traipse up to the Kremlin every Monday, as is customary, to make a weekly report. However, the meetings would be different as Putin is not expected to listen to his boss. Putin has already said he feels no need to hang the portrait of Russia 's new president in his office in a traditional sign of respect.

As premier, however, Putin will continue to wield substantial power. However, the powers of the prime minister, as expected, will further expand under Putin, who always felt that his premiers were not discharging their cuties to the fullest extent possible under constitution, and he may in effect govern Russia jointly with the president.  The tacit understanding between them would not let their relations go strained under any circumstances. 

An Observation: A powerful Premier

It looks Putin and Medvedev would pursue a common agenda on both domestic and foreign fronts. Medvedev has also clarified that it is the president who decides the main positions in domestic and foreign policy and that he is the supreme commander-in-chief, while the Putin's government is responsible "for all economic activities". Russia never had bi-focal authority with two top figures sharing authority, but emerging Russia might as well witness a scenario where two top leaders collectively decide the fate and destiny of Russia . If that happens, it would indeed be an eye-opener for the entire world.

Obviously, Putin will remain Russia 's most popular politician for the foreseeable future, which will give him huge influence over the man he mentored as his successor, even though he would not try to belittle Medvedev's role as president of Russia . Though tensions between president and premier are ruled out at least for now, Medvedev as an emerging vanguard of Human values could even bypass Putin to make a name for himself in Russian history and even take tips from the last Soviet president and Nobel laureate Michael Gorbachev and emerge as a powerful Russian leader on his own merits. World should patiently watch the emerging scenario in Moscow .    

President Medvedev has officially very little political experience much less on international affairs. But he would learn the tricks of the trade on job even while Putin sitting in the driver's seat. The challenge of being head of state in an unwieldy country like Russia means that Medvedev is bound to grow into the job.  While still a teenager, he fell in love with his future wife, Svetlana. "I lost interest in lessons. It was much more interesting to hang out with my future wife," he said. Hopefully, Medvedev would not lose interest in the Kremlin politics now that he has reached the top most office of the once super power.

Medvedev has to address the issue of re-independence of Chechnya quite earnestly and help the Chechens who lost thousands of valuable lives to defend their country, to become an independent republic. One who believes in human freedom Medvedev might even consider granting freedom to Chechnya , but, if he decides that way, the Siloviki would oppose that tooth and nail,. He will have to find diplomatic methods to persuade the hawkish elements in Kremlin to let the Chechens get back sovereignty Russia took away way back. Chechnya should resolve not to harm the economic interests of Russia in the event of gaining re-independence.

Among other top priority issues before the new leadership would be: NATO expansion, NATO-Russia relationship, Russia-EU relations, Russia-USA ties, SCO, WTO membership, UNSC, etc. Medvedev's policy abroad would be judged by his approach to USA , though Russian policy formulations cannot be expected to change in the near future. Russia still prefers EU to USA for closer relationships. Of course, Putin would continue to guide the foreign policy of Russia and advise Medvedev on future course of the country.

Vladimir Putin once described the collapse of the Soviet Union as "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20th century. Whether or not he was criticizing Gorbachev, in 2005 in his State address felt nostalgia for the USSR and did not like the fall of the empire and did not like the fall of the empire. One does not know if Russia still nurtures the global ambitions for super power status, as the West speculates, or at least wants to bring back the USSR style new "democratic" empire and get back its Eastern Block to its sphere of influence. But now the reality has become different now. Putin said the break-up of the USSR in 1991 was "a real drama" which left tens of millions of Russians outside the Russian Federation . Whether or not the Kremlin would rethink of reconstituting a Soviet type Block remains to be seen, the new joint leadership in Moscow might even try to revive the old Soviet super power glory to project its importance as a new strong power to reckon with in world affairs as before.