US game plan against Pakistani nukes gets into high gear!!!

Analysis:

"A society whose citizens refuse to see and investigate the facts, who refuse to believe that their government and their media will routinely lie to them and fabricate a reality contrary to verifiable facts, is a society that chooses and deserves the Police State Dictatorship it's going to get." "“

Ian Williams

Terrorism and Security Analysis

This week we will focus more on the security and terrorism axis within the country as we see a shift in gears in the coordinated low intensity war which is being waged against the State of Pakistan. The issue needs careful observation, sharp analysis and crisp conclusions as the media and diplomatic hype has confused and taken by surprise even the more sober and saner analysts of national and regional geo-politics. We shall directly come to the point but before that a quick refresher on direction of events as we saw last week.

We had written: 

"Pakistan's nuke program is under direct and real threat now as acknowledge by US secretary of State. The environment is being created deliberately to give perceptions that militants or Al-Qaeda is about to get their hands on Pakistani nuke assets and hence their "neutralization" remains the topmost priority of the US foreign policy. It is not difficult to see that another CIA/Mossad/RAW sponsored Iraq styled "WMD" threat perception is being generated through carefully orchestrated information war and Psy-ops"

Last week, we had given many news items reflecting the new strategy in deploying US policy to increase pressure on Pakistan over WMD proliferation charge and threat of Pakistani nukes falling into the "wrong" hands. 

One of the news items was:

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Pakistan high on US policy agenda: Rice
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By Anwar Iqbal
WASHINGTON, June 19: Pakistan enjoys a prominent place in the US policy for Asia but it also is a place where America's worst nightmare of a nexus of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction could materialise, warns US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Her policy speech on Asia, delivered at Washington's Heritage Foundation on Thursday, covered a wide-range of subjects, from China, India and Afghanistan to Iran and North Korea's alleged attempts to acquire nuclear weapons...
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top7.htm&date=20080620

The core requirement of this aggressive and rather sinister US strategy is to create, generate, propagate and fabricate two following perceptions first before US can mobilize international support to disarm Pakistani nukes just as it did on Iraqi WMD's make belief story.

The two perceptions which need to be created are:

1. Pakistan is a failing State and cannot remain viable for long.

2. Taliban are about to take over the country and the threat of nuke assets falling into their hands is real and close.

To achieve these two strategic objectives in perception management and Psy-Ops, US and CIA have deployed all their assets on ground in Pakistan to launch a comprehensive low intensity war (LIC). The weapons deployed for this LIC are:

1.      Diplomatic and global pressure and statements as done by Condi Rice above and seen in another news report below to create panic and confusion about Pakistan.

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Pakistan placed among dysfunctional states
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WASHINGTON, June 24: Seven of the world's 10 most dysfunctional countries are in sub-Saharan Africa, an annual survey says. The state of affairs obtaining in the seven countries is due largely to continuing mayhem either in Somalia or in Sudan.

The top 10, in order, are Somalia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Chad, Iraq, Congo, Afghanistan, Ivory Coast, Pakistan and the Central African Republic.... .
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top12.htm&date=20080625

2.      Using CIA assets within local Taliban to create a mayhem and chaos in the country to time and coordinate with the international propaganda strategy being deployed. It needs to be noted that whenever there is an international outcry against Pakistani nuke assets, militants at home increase their violence levels to give credibility to the propaganda!!

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Malam Jabba motel set on fire
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By Hameedullah Khan
MINGORA: With large-scale violence breaking out in the troubled Swat Valley, militants on Thursday shot dead three relatives of a PPP leader and set on fire a four-storey motel of the Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation (PTDC) in Malam Jabba, the country's only ski resort. Locals said the militants attacked the home of Abdul Kabir, brother of Swat People's Party vice-president Sher Khan, in Koz Shur area of Matta tehsil. A clash took place as security forces opened fire from nearby hilltops to disperse the attackers... .
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top2.htm&date=20080627

3.      Use the assets within the local media to create a false and fake hype about the threat posed by the Taliban to support the perception that Pakistan is falling apart.

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Emboldened militants set sights on Peshawar
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By Ismail Khan
PESHAWAR, June 24: The security situation in Peshawar is grim. Officials in the home department, who evaluate the situation on an almost daily basis, believe declaring a state of red alert is now only a matter of time.

With militants knocking at the gates of the capital of the NWFP, even the more circumspect government and police officials now grudgingly concede that Peshawar, too, could fall in a few months.....

http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top1.htm&date=20080625

4.      Use the assets within the political parties and pressure groups to maintain their "struggle for democracy" to act as smoke screen and to keep the government in crisis while the US works its way around towards its objective of "securing" nuke weapons. Keeping people fanatically busy under constant struggle for food, fuel and power would automatically follow when the government would be more focused on its survival than governance and administration.

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Movement may go violent, warns Aitzaz
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By Our Correspondent
WASHINGTON, June 27: Aitzaz Ahsan, the leader of the lawyers' movement, has warned that further delay in restoring the deposed judges could lead to violence.

Addressing a captive audience at Amnesty International' s US headquarters,

http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= nat1.htm&date=20080628

5.      Use the neo-con and sold out assets within the weak government to thwart all attempts to check this US game plan. The biggest CIA and neo-con asset is the Pakistani ambassador in US who is so exposed and infamous that even Pakistanis in US make it a point to humiliate and insult him.

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Haqqani heckled at meeting
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By Our Correspondent
WASHINGTON, June 28: A row between Ambassador Husain Haqqani and supporters of the Jamaat-i-Islami overshadowed the meeting of Pakistani Physicians in North America on Friday. "Go Haqqani, go," shouted the Jamaat supporters and their slogan echoed in the large convention centre of a Washington hotel where representatives from the US Congress, State Department and various think-tanks were also present, mainly to hear Supreme Court Bar Association president Aitzaz Ahsan talk about the lawyers' movement....
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top14.htm&date=20080629

6.       One of the most critical aspects of this US game is to set a trap for the Pakistan army to provoke it re-launch attacks on militants and to use brute force against militants while the parliament, government and the political parties avoid taking any responsibility for containing the "Taliban threat", hence putting the entire blame on the army and President Musharraf when war starts in the tribal areas. This shifting the entire responsibility and then the blame to the army is perhaps the most sinister aspect of the whole strategy and it seems that the army has fallen for the trap unless they see through the game and make immediate corrections. Both army chief and President have been dragged already and have not insisted that parliament should also be involved!

First the provocations:

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17 guards kidnapped after attack on posts
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By Ibrahim Shinwari
LANDI KOTAL, June 23: Armed men attacked three checkposts on the main Peshawar-Torkham highway in the Khyber Agency on Sunday night and kidnapped 17 personnel of the Khasadar Force.  Officials confirmed the kidnapping and said the Khasadars deployed at the checkposts had been caught unawares by the blistering attacks at midnight....
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top2.htm&date=20080624 

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Militants kill 22 rival tribesmen
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By Alamgir Bhittani
TANK, June 25: Pro-Baitullah Mehsud militants killed 22 rival tribesmen in Jandola the day after kidnapping them, an official said on Wednesday.

They belonged to the Niamatkhel clan of the Bhittani tribe and were captured in clashes with militants on Monday.....
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top3.htm&date=20080626

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'US spies' executed publicly
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By Anwarullah Khan
KHAR, June 27: Militants in Bajaur Agency executed two Afghan nationals in public on Friday on charges of spying for the United Sates. Two more people were killed and six others wounded when some militants resorted to firing in the air to express their approval of the grisly happening... .
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top7.htm&date=20080628

Then the Political leadership and parliament extracts itself from all decision making and shifts the responsibility on the army and President!

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Carrot-and-stick plan to tackle militancy: "¢COAS gets vast powers "¢Tribals to expel foreigners
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By Iftikhar A. Khan
ISLAMABAD, June 25: A high-level meeting on Wednesday took stock of the deteriorating security situation in the North West Frontier Province and progress in the 'war on terror', declaring that the Chief of the Army Staff would be "the principal for application of military effort" in this regard.

http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top1.htm&date=20080626

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Tough message for militants: Kayani meets Musharraf
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By Amir Wasim
ISLAMABAD, June 27: The political and military leadership of the country on Friday put militants on notice that the security challenge they posed would be met with a firm hand.

President Pervez Musharraf, during a meeting with Chief of the Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, called for combating terrorism and extremism with "full force and all available resources".. ..
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top3.htm&date=20080628
 

Then the army moved in without creating any favorable media environment or securing the mandate from the parliament, cabinet or the political parties, both in and out of the government. The army is already unpopular and targeted by the political parties for its actions in the tribal areas. With a hostile and sold out media already creating a negative environment, the military action has been launched without proper political and moral authority. Even if it succeeds in its initial objectives, it will create further rift between the tribal and the army and further polarize the society. The politicians will always have the army to blame for the bloodshed.

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Forces move in on militants
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By Ibrahim Shinwari and Zulfiqar Ali
LANDI KOTAL/PESHAWAR, June 28: Security forces launched an operation against a militant outfit in the Bara sub-division of the Khyber Agency on Saturday, bombarding suspected hideouts with artillery and taking control of key positions.

The Inspector-General of Frontier Corps, Maj-Gen Mohammad Alam Khattak, told reporters in Peshawar that one militant had been killed and a private jail and three other buildings demolished. He said that forces had occupied all heights and clamped a curfew on the region....

http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top1.htm&date=20080629
 

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Militants pull back from Jandola
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By Alamgir Bhittani
TANK, June 24: Tanks and armoured personnel carriers rolled into the Frontier Region of Jandola on Tuesday after the area fell to supporters of Baitullah Mehsud.

Helicopter gunships also bombed suspected locations of militants in the area, adjacent to the South Waziristan tribal region, but there were no casualties.. ...
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top3.htm&date=20080625

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Fresh Swat clashes leave 10 dead
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By Hameedullah Khan
MINGORA, June 24: One security man and nine militants were killed and 14 others were injured during a fresh gunbattle between security forces and the local Taliban in Swat on Tuesday.  A curfew was clamped on Matta tehsil of Swat district and security personnel were put on high alert.....
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top4.htm&date=20080625

On the other hand, political government continues to make contacts with the militants to secure peace deals or to salvage the previous ones. Here again with these moves, we see army appearing to be as the war mongers while the political parties as peace makers!!

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Deal with Taliban hangs in balance
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By Our Correspondent
MINGORA, June 23: The future of the peace deal between the NWFP government and local Taliban in Swat hangs in the balance, although both sides are determined to keep it intact.

The local Taliban Shoora met at an unknown location on Monday and discussed the implementation of the agreement... ..
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= nat3.htm&date=20080624

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Govt-Taliban negotiations today
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By Hameedullah Khan
MINGORA, June 25: A soldier was killed and 10 girls' schools were set on fire by militants in Swat in the early hours of Wednesday, while the local Taliban Shura agreed to hold final talks with the NWFP government in Peshawar on Thursday.

http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= nat1.htm&date=20080626

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Govt, Taliban pledge to protect accord: Army pullout from Swat ruled out
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By Zulfiqar Ali
PESHAWAR, June 26: The NWFP government and the Swat Taliban have vowed to abide by the terms of their agreement, reached last month. "There were some irritants in the peace deal that have been removed," provincial Senior Minister Bashir Ahmad Bilour told journalists after holding talks with associates of militant cleric Maulana Fazlullah here on Thursday.... .
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top1.htm&date=20080627
 

On the surface, US are promoting a very contradictory policy but it makes sense when we analyze the analysis and developments above. The reality is that US is totally confused at the moment as to how the handle the various power groups in the government, Presidency and the GHQ. This PPP led government is totally in American pocket and Washington is doing all what they can to offer support to PPP and ANP led government, even selectively endorsing the peace deals with militants as done by ANP but approving and encouraging more military actions!! US wants to create environment in which army should collide with the militants as we have written above.

This collision of army with the militants without political and media support is of strategic importance for US plans in the region and that is why US drones, air crafts and intelligence assets never target those militants who remain at war with Pakistan and assassinate only those who sign peace deals or only pledge to fight inside Afghanistan! ! The cases of Nek Muhemmed and Haqqani/Hekmatyar is of importance here whom US killed and want to kill respectively while those fighting the Pakistani State remains the most protected terrorist right under the eyes of US predators and hellfire missiles.

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Washington endorses Fata strategy: Boucher due next week
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By Anwar Iqbal
WASHINGTON, June 26: US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher arrives in Islamabad next week with a message of support for Islamabad's new strategy of empowering the military to deal with militancy in the tribal areas.   
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top3.htm&date=20080627

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Gates says Fata plan creates an opportunity
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By Our Correspondent
WASHINGTON, June 27: Pakistan's decision to empower the army to deal with militants in the tribal areas also creates an opportunity for the United States to defeat terrorism in that region, says US Defence Secretary Robert Gates.

At a Pentagon briefing, Mr Gates interpreted Islamabad's new strategy for tackling militancy as a declaration of its intention to reassert its control and authority in the Northwest Frontier Province....
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top4.htm&date=20080628

But the US are not so sure about President Musharraf anymore. He is weak and almost without powers but foe some time now has remained defiant to US demands of handing over Dr. AQ Khan, did not comply with US demands over nuke and missile program and had remained a firm advocate of IPI gas line which the US is trying hard to sabotage. Despite the prevailing perceptions, US are beginning to hate Musharraf for certain very critical level defiance. President Musharraf is a major dilemma for US right now.

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Rice calls Musharraf author of his troubles
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By Anwar Iqbal
WASHINGTON, June 23: US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has underlined the Bush administration' s dilemma in dealing with President Pervez Musharraf: continue to support him as a key ally now in trouble or abandon him as someone who cannot be rescued.  In a lengthy interview to CNN, Ms Rice indicated that President Musharraf quit the army on Washington's advice but stops short of admitting that in doing so he clipped his own wings....
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top4.htm&date=20080624

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US using incentives, sanctions to stop IPI project
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By Anwar Iqbal
WASHINGTON, June 22: The United States is using a combination of incentives and sanctions to prevent the construction of the proposed Iran-Pakistan- India (IPI) gas pipeline.

Earlier this week, a US Senate panel approved legislation to tighten sanctions on Iran, a move which will further complicate the efforts to build the IPI pipeline.... .
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= nat5.htm&date=20080623

Even more, US are extremely anxious to know how General Ashfaq Kiyani would behave under these circumstances. Trying to know his mind and reading his moves remain the biggest Psy-Ops exercise at US policy makers, think tanks and the media these days. General Kiyani has so far very intelligently maintained a lowest profile speaking only where it matters most and with minimum words, again keeping the Americans and Indians guessing. The strong and firm response of General Kiyani over US and Afghan threats of intruding into Pakistan and US killing of Pakistani troops have imposed serious caution on the US and NATO and suddenly we are seeing softening of harsh stance which the US had begun to take couple of weeks back. Even Condi Rice cautioned Karzai not to use harsh language against Pakistan and NATO decided to increase cooperation and promised not to cross the border. It is clear that some harsh message from GHQ has reached Kabul, Washington and Brussels. If one compares these sudden "softening" of heart of the hawks with the previous Gung-Ho statements, one is indeed amused J

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Rice terms Afghan threats 'not wise'
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WASHINGTON, June 22: US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in an interview aired on Sunday that threats by Afghanistan to pursue Taliban insurgents across the border into Pakistan were "not wise." Rice instead called for cooperation between the two nations after Afghan President Hamid Karzai had angered Pakistan when he threatened cross-border action as a right of "self-defence" against Taliban forces....
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top8.htm&date=20080623

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Nato not to carry out 'hot pursuit'
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By Ihtasham ul Haque
ISLAMABAD, June 25: A senior Nato official regretted on Wednesday the US-led forces' cross-border attack in which 11 Pakistani soldiers were killed earlier this month and assured that Nato forces would not enter Pakistan's territory in 'hot pursuit'.

"Nato recognises Pakistan's sovereignty and integrity," ambassador James W. Pardew, deputy secretary-general for operations at Nato headquarters in Brussels, told a press conference here. However, he added: "Nato soldiers do have the right to defend themselves." ...
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top7.htm&date=20080626

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Islamabad, Isaf to reactivate tripartite commission
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By Baqir Sajjad Syed
ISLAMABAD, June 27: Pakistan's military authorities and Nato-led International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) in Afghanistan agreed on Friday to reactivate the tripartite commission. According to defence sources, the next meeting of the commission will take place next month.  The agreement was reached during meetings of visiting Isaf Commander Gen David McKiernan with Chief of Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee Gen Tariq Majeed and National Security Adviser Maj-Gen (retd) Mehmood Durrani. Gen McKiernan, who recently took charge of the 53,000-troop Isaf, was on his first visit to Pakistan....
 
http://www.dawn. com/cgi-bin/ dina.pl?file= top6.htm&date=20080628

As we have said last week also, apart from fighting between Taliban and the government forces, there are also sectarian dimensions to the on-going militancy in the country. The Parachinar fighting is purely sectarian where the government is acting as peace makers and not aggressors. Similarly, in the Khyber region as well, the war between two tribes is sectarian and not political violence related to US war in Afghanistan. These two axis of conflicts are serious and problematic as well but not causing any wave of terrorism in any other part of the country and have so far remained local in these remote tribal regions.

Now let us give conclusions to the above arguments to eliminate any false hypes and misperceptions which media and disinformation war has created:

·         There is no threat of any militant take over of any major city, town or village of the mainland Pakistan. Rest is all non-sense media blabber and part of a larger disinformation war.

·         The possibility of reaction by militants to create law and order, terrorism and arson remains even in mainland and that nuisance has to be tackled by the law enforcement bodies.

·         There is absolutely no threat of Pakistani nukes falling into the hands of militants or Taliban.

·         Army has conducted operations around Peshawar against sectarian terrorist groups of Mengal Bagh and has polished them up within a few hours without resistance. This was the "might" of the militants which media was claiming would "take over" Peshawar.

·         Army has also cleaned up the south Waziristan tribal village of Jandola which the militants had occupied briefly during an inter tribal war. Baitullah Mehsud's had taken the village from rival clan but his men could not hold the village even for few hours when army decided to move in.

·         Militants in Swat are heavily under pressure and dispersed and being chased by the army though are able to cause minimal damage in hit and run tactics.

·         The security situation in the country's major cities and mainland is very much under control and except for incidents in tribal and remote regions, mainland is almost normal. The cites of NWFP close to tribal regions like Kohat, Bannu, Tank and Dera Ismail Khan have a slightly higher risk levels but Peshawar is ok and no militant related incident has been reported.

So much for the media and propaganda hype about "Taliban at the gates" and Peshawar "about to fall".

The actual game is to go after Pakistani nukes before the Bush term ends!!!!