Pakistan: NATO shipments face terrorist threat

A Dangerous Neighbor
How Pakistan's deterioration harms Afghanistan.
by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross & Bill Roggio

08/06/2008 

The PRE-DAWN SILENCE in eastern Afghanistan's Nuristan province was shattered on July 13 by the racket of machine gun fire and rocket-propelled grenades; the attack on the new base was fiercer and the insurgent force larger than American troops could have expected. The first enemy fire struck the mortar pit, then their RPGs blew up a tow truck. Stars and Stripes, the U.S. armed forces' overseas newspaper, reported that after two hours of combat "some of the soldiers' guns seized up because they expelled so many rounds so quickly."

The attack on the small base near the remote village of Wanat drew enormous media attention. It was not just the fact that nine American soldiers lost their lives. A reported 200 well-armed insurgents managed to mass around the base and came close to overrunning it. Stars and Stripes noted that "so many RPGs were fired at the soldiers that they wondered how the insurgents had so many." This early morning attack quickly came to symbolize the growing difficulties of the Afghanistan war.

Insurgent activity in Afghanistan has spiked in recent months. According to Army Maj. Gen. Jeffrey Schloesser, the U.S. commander of NATO forces in the region, there were about 40 percent more attacks in eastern Afghanistan over the first five months of 2008 than during the same period a year ago. Schloesser has also described the attacks as "increasingly complex." A mid-July ABC News/Washington Post poll found that a surprising 45 percent of Americans "do not think the war in Afghanistan is

A critical factor behind Afghanistan's deteriorating state is the turn of events in Pakistan, where the Taliban and al Qaeda have found a safe haven in recent years. After the October 2001 U.S. invasion of Afghanistan felled the Taliban, most of al Qaeda's senior leadership relocated to Pakistan's federally administered tribal areas, the remote and mountainous regions that border Afghanistan, and set about finding allies within tribal society.

Pakistan's military mounted a campaign to flush al Qaeda out of the tribal areas after the group was connected to multiple assassination attempts against Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf, but the military suffered so many losses that Musharraf eventually concluded he had no choice but to deal with his would-be killers. In March and September 2006 he consummated the two halves of the Waziristan accords, peace agreements that essentially ceded Waziristan to the Taliban and al Qaeda. Musharraf also cut deals with Islamic militants in the regions of Swat, Bajaur, and Mohmand. The treaties, punctuated with frequent skirmishes, symbolized Pakistan's inability to confront its extremists.

The negotiation process only accelerated after a new parliamentary majority rode to power in February on a wave of anti-American sentiment. While negotiations and peace deals with militants have long been part of Pakistan's political landscape, the scale of negotiations under the new majority was unprecedented. Talks opened with virtually every militant outfit in the country, and the government has entered into seven agreements encompassing nine districts.

It was easy to predict the failure of the Waziristan accords, in which the government received only unenforceable promises from extremists, and there is no reason to believe that the new accords will yield a different result. Rather, they are likely to increase the geographic areas that serve as safe havens for Pakistan's extremist groups-with predictable harm to Afghanistan.

Thus, the American military is handcuffed in its ability to respond to attacks when the enemy melts back over Pakistan's border. Reluctance to strike in Pakistani territory also prevents the U.S. military from disrupting the enemy's bases and supply lines. The safe havens in northwestern Pakistan give the Taliban and allied groups a virtually untouchable rear area, where they can recruit, arm, train, and infiltrate fighters into Afghanistan.

Pakistan is used both defensively and offensively by insurgents. The July attack in Nuristan was just one of many attacks along the border. Militant groups based in Pakistan have been able to carry out a string of fresh attacks and bombings in the provinces of Zabul, Paktika, Paktia, Nangarhar, and Kunar--all of which sit along the border.

The second advantage that Afghan insurgents derive from Pakistan is the ability to train and gain combat experience. American military and intelligence officials have told us that more than 100 training camps are operating in the North-West Frontier Province and tribal

At these camps, a host of extremist groups--including local Taliban organizations, hardcore al Qaeda recruits, and Pakistani terror groups focused on Kashmir-are trained in a variety of tactics, techniques, and procedures. Training for the Taliban's military arm focuses on the fight against the Pakistani army or NATO forces in Afghanistan. Other camps focus on training suicide bombers or preparing al Qaeda operatives for attacks in the West. One camp exclusively services the Black Guard, Osama bin Laden's elite bodyguard.

In addition to the training camps, insurgents have gained experience fighting against Pakistan's military, Frontier Corps, and police forces. Though not all Taliban fighters who battle Pakistan's security forces travel to Afghanistan to fight NATO, some do. The Pakistani theater has allowed the Taliban to refine its tactics against a professional military, and these tactics have in turn migrated into Afghanistan.

The peace treaties that Pakistan's government has entered into with extremists also allow a greater flow of recruits to join insurgent groups. Some are volunteers, while others are draftees. The author of a remarkable travelogue about Pakistan's Khyber agency recently published in the English-language daily The News was told by a local business owner that the Taliban forces families to provide one male to join their ranks. "Those who refuse," he was told, "risk having their homes demolished and a heavy fine ... imposed."

Indeed, once peace agreements are signed, the Taliban frequently establishes a parallel political administration. Two of the top priorities are extracting taxes and recruiting fighters. This provides the Taliban with a robust force that allows it to hold local territory and send more fighters to Afghanistan. In fact, the Nuristan assault was conducted by a broad range of extremist groups. Tamim Nuristani, the former governor of Nuristan, said the attackers were "not only Taliban. They were [Pakistan-based] Lashkar-e-Taiba, Hezb-i-Islami, Taliban, and those people who are dissatisfied with the [Karzai] government."

In an effort to defeat NATO, the Taliban and allied groups are targeting coalition supply lines through Pakistan. More than 70 percent of NATO's supplies pass through the Torkham Gate in the Khyber tribal agency. The Taliban runs much of that province, with Pakistani troops heavily patrolling the road to Afghanistan but little else. Despite this military presence, the Taliban still periodically disrupts supply lines. In March, Taliban fighters blew up 36 parked oil tankers destined for Afghanistan in what appeared to be a chain reaction triggered by an initial bomb blast. In July, an armed Taliban squad in Landikotal smashed the windows and punctured the tires of a NATO supply convoy. The Taliban has distributed leaflets threatening drivers who deliver oil or other supplies to coalition forces.

Insurgents in Afghanistan will continue to use the situation in Pakistan to their advantage. One of the keys to a successful U.S. mission in Afghanistan is a sound Pakistan policy. Otherwise, the war may be lost on both fronts.

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is the vice president of research and Bill Roggio is an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Voices from the most dangerous nation on earth

by Adrienne Hyat

Since my recent return from a lengthy stay in Pakistan, I've been asked numerous times about my safety while I was there. My standard reply is something like, "It was a tumultuous year--and I could have done without all the headlines--even encountered a few anxious moments--but for the most part I felt pretty safe and welcome." But that reply often is met with puzzled and doubtful looks. It's difficult to convince people that there is another side to the place that has been called, "the most dangerous nation on earth."

To those with first hand knowledge, the reality on the ground is in sharp contrast to the image the media presents:

Father Daniel Suply, 75, is a missionary priest with the Roman Catholic order of Belgian Capuchans. He has resided in Pakistan for nearly 45 years. When asked about his safety, Father Suply spontaneously replies, "I feel absolutely safe."

He teaches in a seminary and performs religious services in a parish. Except for one brief incident in the early 1990's which was quickly snuffed out thanks to Father Suply's fluency in Punjabi, he has never felt threatened here.

Nevertheless, he finds it difficult to convince people back in Belgium to the contrary"”until, that is, they come and see for themselves,

"Over the years quite a few people have come to visit us from Europe." He says. "Of late, many of these people are often advised not to travel to Pakistan because it's[considered to be] such a dangerous place. When they do come here, they say, '"¦no, no, no it is totally safe. We are totally safe"¦That was a very negative picture we got from the people.' A very negative picture"¦ which is not just, actually. Not correct. Not the reality. Of course, Waziristan, that is a dangerous place. I would never venture to go there. The Taliban are there."

Father Suply is quick to point out that Pakistan is facing some deeply critical issues which could lead to the destabilization of the country. However, he does not dwell on those issues. Instead, he focuses on his "very meaningful ministry" in which he finds great reward and which, he adds, "is very much appreciated" by his students.

Alan Cheshire, 52, is a former United Nations Field Officer. He is currently working on a bio-fuel project in Pakistan. Cheshire has done stints in Bosnia, Albania and Kosovo. He finds Pakistan much safer than any of the other places he's been.

"In those places," Cheshire says, "I could not go out without an armed guard. But here in Pakistan, I go into the villages on my own."

He, too, finds it difficult to convince people back home to the contrary, "They think Pakistan is full of terrorists," Cheshire says, shaking his head. " "¦they're actually lovely people. The only problem I've got is too much tea. They're always offering me tea."

Cheshire has felt threatened here, once, on the night of Benazir Bhutto's assassination. He and two Norwegian friends were in a restaurant in the inner city of Lahore when they heard the news. Riots broke out, shops closed and they rushed to get home. On their way, some local shopkeepers lifted up the shutters of their shops and invited them in. "These people were prepared to risk their lives for Europeans. Now that", says Cheshire emotionally, "is friendliness."

Laura and Dale Sinkler are from Kalkaska, Michigan. They have lived in Pakistan with their children for several years. Their first stint was from 1996-2001 in a remote area in the outskirts of Multan where they worked on construction of two power plants. In 2001, they left Pakistan to work on power projects in Bangladesh. In 2006, Dale returned to Pakistan this time working for his own power generation firm. Laura and two of their children, a third is in the US Army, joined him in Lahore in 2007.

They speak fondly about Pakistan and the people they've met here. They say that coming back to Pakistan the second time around, "felt like coming home." What has impressed them the most has been the generosity and hospitality of the poor villagers whom they befriended while working in the outskirts of Multan.

"We would go to their homes and have lunch or dinner with them." Dale Sinkler says. "Oftentimes, we'd feel very uncomfortable because they would be serving us food that we knew they couldn't afford to serve us. We'd go there and sit on a charpoy [a wooden framed straw bed] and they'd treat us like royalty out of a tin cup." Even now, years later, when the Sinklers go back to visit their friends in the villages they are treated "like royalty".

As for their security, the Sinklers say they have felt safe and comfortable during their time in Pakistan despite the risks, which they don't necessarily consider to be any greater than the risks that exist in other places. And, as experience has shown, some things they perceived as threats actually turned out to be friendly encounters.

Laura Sinkler amusingly recalls a nervous encounter she once had while horseback riding in a village with some female friends ""¦ my horse got away from me, I couldn't stop it, so I pulled it's head back to get it to stop and it ended up turning and I actually ended up in a little yard of one of the mosques. I was afraid I was going to be in trouble because you know, that's their holy ground, so I hurried up and got it out of there but instead of getting in trouble they invited me in for tea."

The Sinklers have found that the secret to their success here has been tolerance. "If you treat them with respect" says Dale, "ultimately they will return that two-fold."

Gillian Thornton, 48, is a school teacher from England. She came to Pakistan in 2006 to work for a year as a volunteer teacher trainer in the government schools in Lahore. Thornton explains her reason for coming to Pakistan, "I found the idea of working in a Muslim culture very interesting"¦from the perspective of a single woman, I wondered if I could fit in and how." Thornton admits, however, she was apprehensive about the decision of whether to come to Pakistan in light of media coverage about the country.

Two years, and a second contract later, Thornton believes she does, indeed, fit in here, thanks to her willingness to respect the culture. Her experience has been so positive she now has plans to stay on for a third year. She says the best thing about her time here has been the way she's been received by the Pakistani people and the friendships she has made with them.

As for the apprehensions she had before coming here, she says, "The reality of living and working here has been very different than the media coverage. I've never been threatened, I feel very comfortable here"¦I'm living proof that Pakistan is not the place the media has portrayed it to be."

Thornton credits her experience in Pakistan for broadening her horizons and understanding of the world. She and some of her fellow former volunteers, who originally came to Pakistan through the UK-based Voluntary Services Overseas (VSO), have joked about VSO's motto, 'Sharing skills, Changing lives.' "It was, undoubtedly, the lives of the volunteers," says Thornton emphatically, "that changed the most!"

To be certain, there are parts of Pakistan that are very dangerous and especially hostile to foreigners"”parts of the Northwest Frontier Province and Balochistan, as well as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas or FATA, which is reportedly the current home of the Taliban and Al Qaeda. And even the major cities throughout the country have had their share of violence. Earlier this year, Lahore, which was historically peaceful and quiet, experienced several suicide bombings. And attacks specifically targeting foreigners have also occurred throughout the country.

But to consider these events as an accurate reflection of the whole picture is a gross misperception. Just as it is wrong to assume that the extremist views held by a few represent the many. And the irony in adapting these views is that it tends to fuel anti-Western resentment. As Dale Sinkler put it, "If you treat people like that is what they're made of than that's exactly what you're going to get in return."

Ms. Hyat is an attorney who has lived and taught law in Pakistan.