Will Stability be restored in Pakistan?

As monsoon rains fell on Islamabad's Independence Day celebrations on August 14, the Pakistan's capital was awash with all sorts of rumors surrounding President Pervez Musharraf's "fate". As the Independence Day celebrations drew to close, fireworks and firecrackers competed for attention outside the Presidential Palace with thunder and lightning. It was a dramatic setting which Musharraf enjoyed. His political opponents target him. By using the clumsy situation, he even could be attacked as it happened to Benazir Bhutto or other rulers before him.

Common people, however, are keeping their fingers crossed as to know if more intense turmoil is in store for them now.  Musharraf himself made his only public appearance in recent days at an Independence Day gala at the Presidential Palace here in Islamabad. Musharraf saluted the crowd in commander-in-chief fashion, before sitting with his family to watch a cultural show. He tapped his hand on his knee in time with the music. Outside a small crowd of protesters chanted: "Go Musharraf, Go". But he couldn't hear them. And anyway, he is sure he's done nothing wrong for Pakistan 's people.

Even as the country is reeling under several serious problems, Pakistan's politics now seems to be controlled by Former Prime Minister and PMLN supremo Nawaz Sharif who has declared he wants nothing less than Musharraf's head in any form. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who was toppled in a coup by President Musharraf in 1999 and leading the second-largest party after Zardari's PPP, has reiterates his stand on Musharraf's removal.

Nawaz Sharif, who has rejected suggestions that the president should be given safe passage out of the country, or legal immunity, argues that  "forgive and forget" doesn't seem to be on the agenda for Musharraf's political nemesis, He denies safe passage to Musharraf for "breaking Pakistan 's law" and "selling out Pakistan 's sovereignty." However, it's nothing personal, insists Sharif, who was thrown out of office in 1999 when Pervez Musharraf carried out his military coup.

Provincial assembly in Balochistan on 15 August became the fourth and final province - after Sindh, NWFT and Punjab - to call on Musharraf to seek a vote of confidence in parliament or step down. The ruling coalition says it may start impeachment proceedings next week.

Testing Strengths

Meanwhile hectic negotiations on a "graceful exit" have been held behind the scenes. Nawaz Sharif's tough line complicates efforts to find a deal which would satisfy all parties. No one expects Musharraf would answer the allegations in Parliament. The most radical option before Musharraf would be to dissolve parliament and dismiss the government.

After running this country for nearly a decade as military ruler, and then as president in and out of uniform, Pervez Musharraf is weaker than ever. His political opponents have put their deep differences aside for long enough to gang up on him and finalize a charge sheet for impeachment. Impeachment move is to force Musharraf to search for an honorable exit. That seems to leave resignation, in one form or the other, as the only viable option.  

President Musharraf has always maintained he won't be impeached. But his supporters are deserting him in droves. His earnest calls for unity and reconciliation is still on the table even if that would sound rather hollow for those who are in hurry to capture power form him. Talks are under way and many people are interested that the issue is settled amicably without going into the impeachment of President Pervez Musharraf. One option suggested is for Musharraf to become a "figurehead president" without the power to dissolve parliament. Even if he's evicted, the parties will have to decide where the former army chief, a key ally in Washington's war on terror, is allowed to live and what protection he will receive.

A Word

President Musharraf of Pakistan has firmly denied newspaper reports that the former general has already agreed to step down. Messages were being exchanged between the different parties but no agreement had yet been reached.

The economy is also in desperate shape. Food and fuel prices are soaring, and the value of the rupee falling sharply. On one point, President Musharraf is indisputably right. Stability in virtually war-torn Pakistan is the need of the hour. But there will be more fireworks ahead.

Economic problems and security threat staring at Islamabad gravely. Regional imbalances have complicated the domestic stability of Pakistan. And bombs are exploded every where almost every day. A "trusted" ally the USA is hell-bent upon destabilizing Pakistan after it succeed dong that in Iraq and Afghanistan. India is offering a helping hand to Washington to clinch its fashionable nuclear deal with USA.  

Sharif and Zardari claim that once Musharraf is gone Pakistan will become normal and stable. But with or without President Musharraf, Pakistan faces huge challenges. But by removing Musharraf the situation cannot be improved, on the contrary, it could even be devastating for Pakistan and its people. And it's worth remembering that the allies have an anti-Musharraf agenda and the coalition government partners agree only on their determination to get rid of the president. But there's certainly no guarantee that Pakistan will become more stable and stronger without Pervez Musharraf. And that is a big concern.   

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Thank you
Yours Sincerely,
DR.ABDUL RUFF Colachal
Researcher in International Affairs,
South Asia