Source : South Asia Analysis GroupBy Dr. Subhash Kapila
General Musharraf may have been displaced as the President of Pakistan and Pakistan may have presented a semblance of democracy for the last couple of months, but the crucial question is whether the civilian politicians of Pakistan have wrested the political control of Pakistan's governance from the Pakistan Army?
The certain election of Asif Ali Zardari, of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) widower of Benazir Bhutto as President of Pakistan next week is a strong pointer to the fact that the Pakistan Army while formally divested of direct control of Pakistan's governance will however now rule by proxy through Zardari. He is their preferred choice. Through him the Pakistan Army will control Pakistan's governance.
It needs to be recalled that Benazir Bhutto before her assassination and in the run-up to Pakistan's general election was engaged in a politically collusive strategy to share political power with General Musharraf as President and she as the Prime Minister. It was an unholy combination to preserve Pakistan Army rule with the facade of a civilian Prime Minister who was much Westernised and having the blessings of Washington.
Zardari with no credible political credentials has usurped the overall control of the PPP by sidelining PPP's well established political leaders who held the PPP together for more than eight years while Benazir Bhutto and her husband Zardari were enjoying luxurious life-styles in Dubai. If at all a PPP candidate should have been preferred for President then it should have been from those PPP leaders who struggled in Pakistan's bleak political landscape of the last nine years.
The Pakistan Army hierarchy has a marked disdain for Pakistani politicians of all hues. However, the widespread pro-democracy demonstrations in Pakistan in 2007 forced both the Pakistan Army and USA to recognize that restoration of democracy could no longer be shelved. Alternatively, the option left for the Pakistan Army (in-their perceptions) was to choose the lesser of the two evils "“ Zardari or Nawaz Sharif. Zardari was the more attractive choice as the PPP had a better record of "collusive" partnership in Pakistan's governance with the Pakistan Army.
India's security establishment at the apex level has been indulging in an unwarranted proliferation of statements extolling the Pakistan Army Chief, General Kayani and Zardari and that the PPP is India-friendly. Nothing can be further from the truth. Indian political leaders and its establishment must learn to be reticent when making observation on Pakistan. For in such summations there are dangers of Indian policy formulations being divorced from ground realities operating in Pakistan.
In the situation that is unfolding in Pakistan all indicators suggest that Zardari will get elected as President of Pakistan next week.
If that be so, then some factors need to be considered namely:
Pakistan's Prospective President Will Be a Tainted President.
Pakistan Army's Preferential Political Choice: Pakistan Peoples Party or Pakistan Muslim League (N)
Pakistan Army Would Not Prefer a Baluchi or Pakhtun as President
Pakistan's Political Landscape Likely to Unfold
Pakistan's Post "“ Musharraf Phase: The United States Predominance Will Continue in Pakistan.
Pakistan's Prospective President Will Be a Tainted President
Pakistan's Presidents in the past never stood distinguished for their political or intellectual stature and virtually all departed leaving tainted legacies.
Zardari as Pakistan's prospective President stands distinguished in that when he assumes office next week (his election is taken as granted) he would be the first Pakistan President who will enter the Presidency with an overwhelming baggage of a highly-tainted corrupt past.
His involvement in corruption during both regimes of his wife as PM are legendary. It was a hot national and international topic which found mention in US Congressional Reports in which as Pakistani author Shuja Nawaz states that the Report "cited Asif Zardari's case as an examplar of corruption around the globe". Lately the Pakistani media is alive with reports that Zardari suffers from dementia and therefore raises doubts on his capabilities to function as President.
The white-washing of Zardari's convictions and outstanding cases by Pakistan's military ruler through an administrative order has not added to Zardari's political credibility. In fact his tainted reputation gets further reinforced.
Zardari further eroding his political independence proudly proclaimed on 31 Aug. 2008 that the "Establishment has not opposed his candidature as President". Obviously the Pakistan Army will not appose it as he is their preferred choice.
Zardari has further reinforced his own unreliability when recently in response to Nawaz Sharif charges that he has reneged on the political agreements signed with the PML (N) coalition partner , Zardari proudly retorted that political agreements are not like the Holy Quran or the Hadiths which cannot be broken.
Therein lies the key to Zardari's character and his political ethos. This does not spell well for Pakistan's political scene in the coming months nor the Pakistan Army whose preferred choice he has been Nor does it bode well for Pakistan's neighbors.
Pakistan Army's Preferential Political Choice: Pakistan Peoples Party or Pakistan Muslim League (N)
The General Election in February 2008 did not come up with a clear mandate in favor of any of Pakistan's two national parties the PPP or PML (N) led by former Premier Nawaz Sharif. This resulted in the formation of a coalition between the two which has just unraveled and PML (N) has withdrawn from the Cabinet.
The coalition unraveled because of the following factors (1) PPPs reluctance to prosecute General Musharraf (2) PPPs going back in its commitment to restore the sacked Chief Justice of Pakistan and 60 other judges by an executive order (3) PML (N)'s opposition to Zardari's Presidency.
It is well known and discussed openly in Pakistan that the Pakistan Army and Washington were against prosecution of General Musharraf when he left the Presidency. Reinstatement of former Supreme Court Chief Justice would have led to cases being opened against Musharraf and also cancellation of immunity granted to Zardari by Pakistan Army's military dictator.
Notwithstanding the above the political preferences of the Pakistan Army lie with the PPP and not the PML (N) led by Nawaz Sharif.
The Pakistan Army has all to fear if the PML (N) were to insist on its candidate becoming Pakistan's next president, even if Nawaz Shrif ruled himself personally out on that score.
It needs to be recalled that in Pakistani's political history the only time a duly elected civilian Prime Minister dismissed two Pakistan Army Chiefs and sought to establish civilian supremacy, it was Nawaz Sharif. Sadly on his second dismissal of General Musharraf in 1999, the Pakistan Army struck back by a military coup in absentia to protect its corporate interests.
Comparatively, while the Pakistan Army tamely dismissed Benazir Bhutto twice from the office of Prime Minister, in the case of Nawaz Sharif it had to resort to a military coup to dislodge him.
The elevation of Zardari to Pakistan's presidency has essentially been contrived by the Pakistan Army, satisfied that a politically malleable and vulnerable PPP President would not encroach on Pakistan Army's turf.
Pakistan Army Would Not Prefer a Baluchi or Pakhtun as President
While for some time on the Pakistani political scene names from Balochistan and NWFP were being bandied about,this process came to an end when Zardari questioned as to why he himself could not become President.
In terms of Pakistan Army's political preference it would not prefer a Baluchi or a Pakhtun as President. This is no conspiracy theory that is being mooted. The Pakistan Army has a long record of brutal military suppression on Baluchistan and lately in the frontier regions of NWFP bordering Afghanistan. It was for no other reason that some time back the Pakhtun Governor of NWFP who happened to be a retired Lieutenant General of the Pakistan Army had to leave office.
For these reasons the Pakistan Army would have not countenanced any winning presidential candidates from these two provinces.
Pakistan's Political Landscape Likely to Unfold
Pakistan's political landscape that is likely to unfold in the coming months is going to be troublesome, volatile and destabilizing for its neighbors on both flanks.
The following likely developments need to be taken into account:
Zardari on assuming presidency is likely to secure his office by a number of draconian steps which will bring him into open conflict with the PML (N) the national party with comparable political influence and a strong base in the Punjabi heartland.
The lawyers agitation for restoration of judiciary will pick up steam creating serious law and order problems due to widespread demonstrations.
Pakistan's domestic insurgencies and suicide bombings are likely to intensify as like Musharraf, Zardari too will be perceived as an American lackey.
Anti-Americanism within Pakistan is likely to enlarge as USA is perceived as more focused on controlling the frontier regions through the Pakistan Army than on any economic development of Pakistan.
Pakistan's worsening internal security situation and political volatility will undermine investors confidence in Pakistan and worsen an already derailed Pak economy.
If Pakistan does not slide away back into direct military rule then the above developments could force an early general election in Pakistan.
Another likely point of friction could arise is with Zardari as President over-stretching himself to regain civilian supremacy over the Pakistan Army.
It is doubtful whether Pakistan for long can suffer Zardari as President despite all the backing he can garner from the Pakistan Army. In fact Zardari's own impetuosity may bring him to a point of displacement by the Pakistan Army.
Let it not be forgotten that Pakistan's political arena is not the sole preserve of the Pakistan Army and Washington. Saudi Arabia is far more strongly entrenched and its casting vote will always be with Nawaz Sharif. Further, the Pakistan Army may at times defy or soft-pedal American dictates, but the Pakistan Army does not have the guts to defy Saudi Arabia's formulations.
Pakistan's Post-Musharraf Phase: The United States Predominance Will Continue in Pakistan
The exit of General Musharraf does not portend that the United States predominance in Pakistani affairs has ceased. On the contrary, with growing uncertainties and volatility in Pakistan, the United States predominance will become more marked. The instrument once again will be the Pakistan Army and its top Generals. It was for nothing that in the current political scenario that General Kiyani, Pak Army COAS was summoned to meet the US military hierarchy and that too on a US Aircraft carrier in the middle of the Indian Ocean.
While reports stated that the discussions focused on fine tuning of US-Pak military cooperation in the "War on Terror" it would be safe to surmise that the apex level US-Pak military summit at an "unusual rendezvous" would have focused more on the following aspects in the Post-Musharraf phase, namely (1) Pakistan's new President's role in control of Pakistani nuclear weapons arsenal (2) Pakistan's governance and Pakistan Army's role therein with Zardari as President (3) Pakistan Army's plans to control growing insurgency within Pakistan.
On all these counts and especially on the control of nuclear weapons by Zardari as President, the United States has serious concerns.
Concluding Observations
Pakistan's return to democracy after a torturous gap of nine years seems to be destined once again to be short-lived. Zardari in his eagerness to be elected as President of Pakistan to secure his personal future and fortunes has walked into a trap set by the Pakistan Army. By jettisoning his political coalition with former PM Nawaz Sharif he has emerged as a willing tool of Pakistan Army's divisive politics to ensure their hold on Pakistan's governance.
General Mirza Aslam Beg's article "The Power Brokers of Democracy" in "The Nation" of 6 April 2007 is quoted in Shuja Nawaz's book and commented as follows. "In an analysis steeped in irony, former Army Chief General Mirza Aslam Beg, known for his penchant for manipulating the political system when he was in power identified three 'power brokers' that emerged after Pakistan's first martial law government in 1958, namely "the Military", the "Judiciary" and "the United States" (which) have since manipulated power in Pakistan to their advantage. The military has acted as catalyst; the judiciary as the facilitator under the cover of the Law of Necessity; and the United States as the manipulator, using the political parties and the vested groups to bring military dictators to power to accomplish the agenda of 'regime change'."
In the current end-game in Pakistan, does one see on the horizon, the emergence of General Kiyani as the next ruler of Pakistan after giving Zardari his moment of glory?
(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group.
Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com)