Polls in Indonesia By Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

On 16 March2009, Indonesia marked the formal start of its parliamentary election on 9 April with a joint rally of political parties in the capital Jakarta and the campaign for elections ended 05 April after reaching its peak just as the impact of the global financial crisis is being felt by voters.  At the start of the official campaign, party representatives, one by one, climbed the steps to the podium in Jakarta’s cavernous conference arena, to pound out their election slogans to hundreds of flag-waving supporters. Thirty-eight national parties, including the ruling Yudhoyono's Democratic Party and Megawati's Democratic Party of Struggle, are contesting parliamentary elections along with six local parties in the newly-autonomous province of Aceh. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono gave a televised address from his palace in the capital. "We call on the people to participate in the election process peacefully. Let's obey the law and regulations," he. The head of the National Election Committee, Hafiz Anshary, warned party leaders at the rally that failure to control their supporters may lead to violence. "I hope the political parties will not insult or violate each other in a way that could disintegrate into anarchy," he said.

The main issues exercising voters are likely to be the economy, employment opportunities and the fight against corruption - especially high-level corruption, which continues to plague Indonesian politics. The global slowdown has stalked this campaign from the beginning. Which party it bites at the ballot box will become clear soon. The economic crisis has also helped by reducing the price of oil. Indonesia’s own declining production means it is now an oil importer, so it is saving money. An issue that has made headlines in the Indonesian media is the government's position on Ahmadiyah, a Muslim sect that does not believe Mohammad is the last prophet. The government recently restricted the freedoms of the group, but has so far refused to ban the group. Many argue Ahmadiyah must be a new religion, not part of Islam. There were painful moments when prices went through the roof last year.

Indonesia faces demands for independence in several provinces, where secessionists have been encouraged by East Timor's 1999 success in breaking away after a traumatic 25 years of occupation. Militant Islamic groups have flexed their muscles over the past few years. As a usual practice on international arena, some have been accused of having links with Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaeda organization, including the group blamed for the 2002 Bali bombings which killed 202 people.

Lying near the intersection of shifting tectonic plates, Indonesia is prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. On Dec. 26, 2004, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake, whose epicenter was off the west coast of the Indonesian island of Sumatra, caused a tremendously powerful tsunami in the Indian Ocean that devastated 12 Asian countries. At least 225,000 people died in the disaster, and millions were left homeless. Indonesia was the heaviest hit, with more than 150,000 casualties. Many of the deaths occurred in the war-torn province of Aceh. On May 26, 2006, more than 6,200 people were killed in a 6.3 magnitude earthquake on Java. About 130,000 were left homeless. Just two months later, on July 17, an earthquake and tsunami struck Java, killing more than 500 people. It was the fourth major earthquake to strike the country in 19 months. Floods ravaged Jakarta in Feb. 2007, killing about 30 people and leaving approximately 340,000 homeless. 

Public support  

Indonesia's Islamic parties are also adopting more moderate positions to attract more voters, which has caused internal divisions -- particularly for PKS, translated as the Prosperous Justice Party. Another Islamic party, the National Awakening Party, or PKB, said it intends to use the 2009 election to position itself for the next election in five years.

As Indonesia’s political parties have tramped up and down the country over the past few weeks, their election promises have often had a similar ring - more jobs, more money, and a better life for everyone. But on the other side of the campaign trail, voters have been feeling the impact of the global slowdown a little more each month. With exports falling, investment slowing and predictions for growth shrinking all the time, ordinary families here are - finally - starting to feel the pinch.

Yudhoyono's Democrat Party is riding high in the polls, with about a quarter of the vote, 10 points ahead of its nearest rivals. The economic crisis has actually helped the president - known by his initials SBY. "Going back to the early period of last year, the economy was doing pretty OK compared to today and SBY's popularity was actually declining," he said. "But today the economic conditions are much worse and his popularity is double, and probably will triple.” The reason is that because of this crisis he has been able to efficiently utilize state funding with the justification that people in this economic crisis need this direct cash assistance from the government, and this policy has increased his popularity significantly."

Indonesia

  I

About 174 million Indonesians, across more than 17,000 islands, are eligible to vote in the ballots. Indonesia is an archipelago in Southeast Asia consisting of 17,000 islands (6,000 inhabited) and straddling the equator. The largest islands are Sumatra, Java (the most populous), Bali, Kalimantan (Indonesia's part of Borneo), Sulawesi (Celebes), the Nusa Tenggara islands, the Moluccas Islands, and Irian Jaya (also called West Papua), the western part of New Guinea. Its neighbor to the north is Malaysia and to the east is Papua New Guinea. Indonesia, part of the “ring of fire,” has the largest number of active volcanoes in the world. Earthquakes are frequent. Wallace's line, a zoological demarcation between Asian and Australian flora and fauna, divides Indonesia. Ethnically it is highly diverse, with more than 300 local languages. The people range from rural hunter-gatherers to a modern urban elite. Indonesia has seen great turmoil in recent years, having faced the Asian financial crisis, the fall of President Suharto after 32 years in office, the first free elections since the 1960s, the loss of East Timor, independence demands from restive provinces, bloody ethnic and religious conflict and a devastating tsunami.

Spread across a chain of thousands of islands between Asia and Australia, Indonesia has the world's largest Muslim population. Islam began spreading in the 13th century, and most of the archipelago had become Islamic by the 15th century. After Napoléon subjugated the Netherlands in 1811, the British seized the islands but returned them to the Dutch in 1816. In 1922, Indonesia was made an integral part of the Dutch kingdom. Sophisticated kingdoms existed before the arrival of the Dutch, who consolidated their hold over two centuries, eventually uniting the archipelago in around 1900. After Japan's wartime occupation ended, independence was proclaimed in 1945 by Sukarno, the independence movement's leader. During World War II, Japan seized the islands. Tokyo was primarily interested in Indonesia's oil, which was vital to the war effort, and tolerated fledgling nationalists such as Sukarno and Mohammed Hatta. After Japan's surrender, Sukarno and Hatta proclaimed Indonesian independence on Aug. 17, 1945. The Dutch transferred sovereignty in 1949 after an armed struggle. In Feb. 1956, Indonesia abrogated the union and began seizing Dutch property in the islands. Hatta and Sukarno, the cofathers of Indonesian independence, split over Sukarno's concept of “guided democracy,” and under Sukarno's rule the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) steadily increased its influence.

 In 1975, Indonesia invaded the former Portuguese half of the island of Timor; it seized the territory in 1976. A separatist movement developed at once. Habibie unexpectedly ended 25 years of Indonesian intransigence by announcing in Feb. 1999 that he was willing to hold a referendum on East Timorese independence. Twice rescheduled because of violence, a UN-organized referendum took place on Aug. 30, 1999, with 78.5% of the population voting to secede from Indonesia. After enormous international pressure, the government, which was either unwilling or unable to stop the violent rampage, finally agreed to allow UN forces into East Timor on Sept. 12, 1999. East Timor achieved independence on May 20, 2002.

 II

Indonesia is the world's most populous Muslim-majority nation; however, no reference is made to Islam in the Indonesian constitution and hence non-Muslims beocme the presdient ther, though over 90% of Indonesians are Muslim. Long-term leader General Suharto came to power in the wake of an abortive coup in 1965. He imposed authoritarian rule while allowing technocrats to run the economy with considerable success. But his policy of allowing army involvement in all levels of government, down to village level, fostered corruption. Earlier, his "transmigration" programs - which moved large numbers of landless farmers from Java to other parts of the country - fanned ethnic conflict. Suharto fell from power after riots in 1998 and escaped efforts to bring him to justice for decades of dictatorship.

Sukarno was named president for life in 1966. He enjoyed mass support for his policies, but a growing power struggle between the military and the PKI loomed over his government. After an attempted military coup was put down by army chief of staff, General Suharto, and officers loyal to him, Suharto's forces killed hundreds of thousands of suspected Communists in a massive purge aimed at undermining Sukarno's rule. In the summer of 1997, Indonesia suffered a major economic setback, along with most other Asian economies. Banks failed and the value of Indonesia's currency plummeted. Antigovernment demonstrations and riots broke out, directed mainly at the country's prosperous ethnic Chinese. As the economic crisis deepened, student demonstrators occupied the national parliament, demanding Suharto's ouster. On May 21, 1998, Suharto stepped down, ending 32 years of rule, and handed over power to Vice President B. J. Habibie. June 7, 1999, marked Indonesia's first free parliamentary election since 1955. The ruling Golkar Party took a backseat to the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P), led by Megawati Sukarnoputri, the daughter of Sukarno, Indonesia's first president.

On Oct. 20, 1999, in a surprising upset, the Indonesian parliament elected Abdurrahman Wahid, an adept politician with a reputation for honesty and moderation, as the new president of Indonesia, defeating Megawati Sukarnoputri. Wahid was forced from power in July 2001, and Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri assumed the helm to elevate herself to the post of president eventually. In May 2003, President Megawati declared military rule in Aceh. Megawati's PDI-P Party fared poorly in April 2004 elections, placing second behind the Golkar Party of former president Suharto. In July, retired general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono placed first in the country's inaugural direct presidential elections. Post-Suharto Indonesia has made the transition to democracy. Power has been devolved away from the central government and the first direct presidential elections were held in 2004. In fall 2000, Suharto failed twice to show up in court to face corruption charges of embezzling $570 million in state funds. In July 2007, prosecutors filed a civil suit against Suharto, seeking $440 million that he had embezzled and $1.1 billion in damages. The United Nations has called Suharto the most corrupt contemporary leader. Suharto died on January 27, 2008.

Incumbency Factor

This election is always largely about money. Both the economy and the familiar problem of corruption are big voter issues here. Despite the influence of Islam on Indonesian politics, voters are more concerned about economic issues.Many candidates are linking themselves to various celebrities - from footballer David Beckham to the US President, Barack Obama. The parliamentary polls also carry real political weight. Firstly, they will decide which parties get to put forward presidential candidates - a party needs to win 20% of the seats in parliament to do that. And secondly, they will be a useful litmus test of whether politics here are becoming more Islamic. Secular parties tend to do best, despite a growing Muslim identity among many Indonesians. But even secular parties have been under pressure from hard-line Muslim groups, and support for at least one Islamic party seems to be growing. Hundreds of thousands of police and soldiers have been deployed to ensure security.  As it stand, there has been pro-regime environment is being witnessed in the country’s poll scene and the trend is expected to retain the present government intact.

By all accounts available, it appears, the ruling party retains hold on of the people and has wide public support.  Yudhoyono's Democrat Party is ahead of Megawati's Democratic Party of Struggle.  Presidential elections are due to follow in July. The president may serve a maximum of two consecutive five-year terms. Incumbent President Yudhoyono, who is a favorite to win a second five-year term in July, has nevertheless managed to pull off a last-minute surge in popularity for his Democrat Party and himself. His Democratic Party is facing tough opposition in the April ballot for the 560-seat parliament.

The April 9 national elections will determine the makeup of Indonesia's 550-seat parliament, as well as its regional representation council, provincial, county and city assemblies. Islamic parties in Indonesia will not get enough votes in the coming election to nominate a presidential candidate. Very few are expected to get the 20 percent of parliamentary seats needed to nominate a presidential candidate in the July election. It seems the only party expected to meet the 20 percent threshold is President Susilo Bambang Yudyohono's Democratic Party. Other parties will have to join alliances to nominate a president. Now that inflation has come down, the president's popularity is high, and he and his party are doing very well in the polls coming into the election."

2009 could even be the beginning of the new generation" of Indonesian politicians, although, for now, uunless some miracle turns up, the ruling Democratic Party is sure to win the polls.  

-----------------------

Yours Sincerely,

DR. ABDUL RUFF Colachal

Columnist & Independent Researcher in World Affairs, The only Indian to have gone through entire India
South Asia.